Hello Bagonirix,
Thank you for your email.
You have demonstrated your knowledge of variance already which proves we
are random (as you know with variance, you can't expect to win every
$12/180's). You've already been sent our shuffle audit proving we are
random.
So lets look at your hands. Both of them are AK. So just how good is AK?
Well, against a completely random 2 cards, you should expect to win around
65.4% of the time. That's including people calling with 7 2 offsuit etc.
When you consider how aggressive you play AK you're getting more likely a
coin-flip situation. If you want to check this out, follow this link:
http://www.gocee.com/poker/HE_Val_Sort.htm
Now, in your first hand you complained about you were had [Kd As] vs [Js
9s] and were all-in pre-flop. Your odds of winning?
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=4433633
pokenum -h js 9s - kd as
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js 9s 655462 38.28 1048275 61.22 8567 0.50 0.385
As Kd 1048275 61.22 655462 38.28 8567 0.50 0.615
Yep - only a little more than 61%. You can't expect to win that 100% of
the time - it's almost a coinflip. So just because you lost that hand, it
proves nothing.
Lets look at the next hand. Here you're a little bit more of a favourite,
holding [Ac Kc] versus your opponent's [Ah 9h]:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=65688
pokenum -h ac kc - ah 9h
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Kc 1182479 69.06 456688 26.67 73137 4.27 0.712
Ah 9h 456688 26.67 1182479 69.06 73137 4.27 0.288
So that's a 69% chance of winning. Meaning 1 in 3 times on average you're
going to lose. And that's what happened here - you have given us an
example of *one* time you lose.
Looking at individual hands proves nothing - it proves that you are not
analyzing the randomness of our shuffle. As you know about variance, you
will know that a large sample space reduces its effects on random events.
So I looked at all of your AK results over the past few days - I actually
analyzed 6,500 hands.
What I found through an analysis of your last 6,500 hands is that you have
won with AK 51 of 72 times - that's 70.8%. Which means that you are
winning slightly above the expected results (of course, it is unlikely you
will ever be on the exact expected result because of variance which you
already know about).
What this tells us is that your statement that we "always do this crap" is
completely false. Because, as you can see, you are actually winning 70.8%
of the time meaning you are only losing 29.2% of the time which is no
where near "always".
In fact, you are doing quite well.
The issue can be easily settled by a review of your own hands. We extend
to every customer the ability to receive a copy of every single hand they
have ever played on PokerStars.
We do this because we are proud to have not only the best customer service
in the industry, but also the best security and random number generator.
Not one time in our history has anyone discovered a statistical aberration
through analysis of these histories, and that is because no significant
discrepancy will exist.
There are a few programs like PokerOffice and PokerTracker that allow you
to import your hand histories, and offer statistical analysis, which I am
sure will satisfy your concerns.
We wish you the best of luck at the tables and thank you for choosing
PokerStars.
Regards,
Tim
PokerStars Support Team
