Because I like pain if anyone has time on their hands please figure out my $$ equity in this spot. Blinds are 8000-1600 2000 ante. In 15 minutes we move to 5-10-3. I have 385K, second in chips behind 1 guy with 500K. Total chips in play are 2.4 million. Luckily for me most of the strong tourney players have busted out in the teens today including Zee Justin, Max P and Michael Katz. All that is left is Raymond Davis but he’s short with 130K. The rest of the table is a combination of weak tight bad live players that clearly do not understand Turbo Sit N Go strategy. Here is the payout structure from the last 300 RB tourney two weeks ago our prizepool is slightly more. Let’s use this one to keep it easy:

1 $158,144
2 $99,569
3 $63,950
4 $42,633
5 $30,256
6 $23,036
7 $17,191
8. $12,721

I am in the BB with Ah As. UTG +1 shoves for 165K. Fold to SB who over shoves for 200K. I call hands are—

UTG +1 --4c 4d

SB—Ac Kc


How much money should I make from this tourney on average if I am the best player at the table with this structure. PLEASE HURT ME! If you really want to turn the knife in my heart the lone lady at the table says before the flop that she folded a 4.

RESULTS:

BOARD: 4c 9d 7s 7c 2c

I ship it in 4 hands later and am out. $13K

$120,000 imo

$23,036 after extensive calculations, tough break bro

~90k ianan

that sucks bart, tough break. yeah that field was pretty soft and got pretty ridic... one player at my table was opening to 4bb every other hand at final 3 tables which worked when everyone folded but then he was priced in to call when the 11-12bb stacks shipped in... and his stack was only 25 bb or so... he called off half his stack vs me with his A5o when i had 12 bb and shipped with AQ... i wonder how he ended up doing - the idiot with the high stakes poker hat on? was he there today?

****, a real pro answered me in BBV? Headsup for rolls in o8HL lol?

That guy got busted out before the final 2 tables. This tournament is so ridiculous with the money involved vs buyin expectation vs average player strength.

So if you win the pot you bust both players in 8th and 7th place, so 6 left meaning the following:

$256336 in money still up for grabs since everyone is guaranteed about $23k. 2.4 million in play, you have 750k or so if you win the pot, so that's good for 31.25% of the equity which means had you won this pot your $equity in the tournament would've been $103105

Yeah that sucks pretty hard. Bart, check your pm's.

thats gotta hurt man

about 95k

Yea, a bit more than 96k given your skill advantage. I used this ICM calculator.