WITH RB is the way I'm seeing it

You really think he is a 3:1 dog on this?

correct! 43% bronze to supernova 4-6x rakeback according to pokerstars.com (obv)

maybe you are right, i thought this was a better place though

phasements

cross-posting from his main thread:

I'm not betting against Quad b/c I want to root for him, but I am only betting a dollar on him even tho I could afford much more b/c I think this task is basically impossible. This is such a hard task that it if Quad consulted a doctor beforehand the doctor would likely tell him not to attempt it. I've told him that I think its too unhealthy of a task to try to undertake but he seems set on giving it a go.

Just saying that its easy to think that Quad can do anything because he's the guy that brags about 40-tabling with ease & obviously has no quit in him. But in reality I don't think Quad himself understands how disgustingly difficult this grind is going to be. I have no quit in me either but I learned by pushing myself to the point of sickness last year (with a much 'easier' grind) that even with a stubborn mind the body can give up on you without your consent. He's very likely going to fail at this imo, and if you like money you should consider this a good bet at 3 to 1.

Smallest amount to bet? This will be awesome marathon to sweat if it seriously goes underway

Quadchrazs is obviously a very intelligent guy with a high poker skill set..im sure he has done the math on this prop bet and believes he can accomplish this as far as his poker skills are concerned..i dont have any experience with hypers but i believe that 30k games the variance might approach +-0.5% of his true roi in these games.
Therefore i believe this prop bet is more of an endurance bet than a poker skill bet..to mass multitable an intense game such as 6max hypers for 14 hours a day for a month is going to mentally soul crushing and physically very demanding.
i think 3/1 is close to the true odds of him doing this with profit including 43% rakebake, however i wont be taking the bet as i believe its -ev on my behalf.
why not offer another line of betting..i.e profit pre rakeback at say 3/1 - 5/1 or odds that you determine? im sure this would get alot more interest from the general 2+2 members, as the way the bet stands it seems a bit weird..you are basically saying, 'i bet i can play 30k sngs in a month and be a loser in them pre rakeback'. also seems a bit complicated when working out the 43% rakebake over the total sngs across differing buy ins. the bettor wants to be able to look at your sharkscope results during the month and see if your are + or - profit without having to work out rakeback.

Res up to $10,000 for me please

I need 24 hours to look into this ,to busy now

Thank you

Im not crazy. I havent profited pre rakeback the last 50k hypers or so, and i wont bet on this in such volatile games with 0-0.5 maybe 1% pre rakeback winnings with easily possibilties to be -0.5% -1% or -1.5% if you multiply ur daily volume by 4. This is very common among every hyperturbo grinder of the 60+ to have either a minimal edge, or non pre rakeback. 43% rakeback over total sngs is very easy to calculate, add all the rake together (sharkscope or pokerstars audit) and multiply it by 0.43.

Thanks for your insight though, but I do not agree with the gist of it. 60$+ hypers with 71% would be largely an endurance bet thats why i choose to take the value as if i started as a bronzestar.

Do have any idea of what the average long term ROI is for someone playing hypers with an avg BI of 60+? for 99% of players it's less than 1%. Now add playing 30k games in a month on that. The fact is that no one would probably win pre/rb doing this, some wouldn't even after SNE rb (hence phase89). So to be plus EV in this with only 43% rb takes a ridic amount of skill, it's not remotely "just an endurance test"

Ironjake, 43% rb is relatively low and does handcuff him a bit on super masstabling. He already has enough booked to do it so trying to get him to change rules is a waste of time.

I foudn two suitable judges

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/members/107247/ - SIQ

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/members/223684/ - Regret$ (STT mod)

If any of the private bettors escrow or no escrow have any obligations to them being the judges, let me know.

Most of the bets are from friends I know for long time now so far, but Money from the bettors I asked to escrow can now be send to live@pompeii, as will i do to confirm their action.

graph of last 50k hypers?

entire sample, pre rakeback

got one guy betting 100 his to my 34, so i guess thats the lowest

no hurry.

how do we send money if we don't have pokerstars?

id prefer all bets to take place over pokerstars.

This will be an interesting sweat. 30k hyper games is hard enough but at $60+ ABI, without table selecting, there is potential to be negative post 43% RB.

I'm deliberating on whether I should bet against you or not. Can I ask how much action you have already on this?

GL Mecastyles, looks like you have a fun month ahead of you.

IronJake, if you don't think he can do it bet against him.

You're one sick man if you pull this off. Subbed for this madness.

damn sick challange well gl on it

Yeah ,give me a few more days ...this is a interesting one

Thank you (and of course ,if i am taking to long you can cancel my res)

Im arrive home the 29th (I'm in argentina now).

If then still no answer ill quit ur reserve. Meanwhile people are still welcome to bet, i got some more action to spare for sure, but i do almost reached what i want to atleasttt start (15k against)