Can good winning players experience 100k downswings at low stakes online? - Page 2

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Can good winning players experience 100k downswings at low stakes online?

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11-17-2011 , 11:17 PM

#26

omnishakira

High Troller

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 9,732

50k hands upswing
lost 100 000$ over >100 000hands
Good winning player

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11-17-2011 , 11:43 PM

#27

SUITEDACESLOL

adept

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 829

Quote:

Originally Posted by khublakhan

I have been a winning poker player for five years. I lost my job in 2009 and turned professional poker player and made more money than my job, which was a well paid mid management job in advertising. I payed of huge debts from university through poker and was able to save up some nice money and went travelling for a year

I had 12bb over 50k hands previously in 2010 playing 100nl 6 Max (2 months of play). I had a 15% roi over 1,000 stts. I haven't been playing mtts so much but when I did in 2010 I had a 85% roi over 250 mtts, average stake $50 and a 92 rating on Sharkscope. I also crushed live 500 pound buyin games in London for 3 years, playing mostly at what is considered the toughest casino in Europe for cash games - The Vic. So I would like to think I was a fairly good and consistent winning player. I experienced two downswings in 5 years, the longest was two months where I couldn't win a thing and then it all picked up again after that

However since August I have found myself in a massive downswing covering 100,000 hands across cash nl and omaha and stts. I have dropped down in stakes and am now playing $50 Omaha cash games and $20 and $30 stt turbos of various kinds. I can't even bare to play nl 6 max anymore as it just crushes me what happens when I do. I spent 80 hours last month improving my game using Leakbuster - I got an A- grade (which is pretty good if I remember school exam results) for my NL game. 25k of those hands are from Omaha which as you know has sick variance. I have been playing Omaha for 3 months and have much to learn but have read three books and worked hard on my game. But I just get crushed consistently wheen huge favourite, my speciality is being 75-70% favourite on the turn getting set allin by my opponent and getting rivered. I guess turbos stts have sick variance also but same problems there as well

My question is - can a long term winning poker player experience a near 100,000k downswing at such low stakes? I am playing 6 hours a day 6 hours a week and it is like torture, but I don't tilt. I just continue to play what I think is good poker but have experienced the worst coolers every day for three months. Yesterday there was a power cut in my area when I had top set and a nut flush draw in an Omaha cash game - the one hand all day where I couldn't wait to get my money in lol

So has anyone experienced a run like this? Is variance much bigger than any of us ever imagined? I seem to remember Dusty Schmidt saying in every 1 million hands he would experience 100k break even spells? Obviously I am not good enough for my downswings to be break even periods but I believe I have lmited my losses by solid bankroll management and good self control

Is this plausible for a winning player?

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11-18-2011 , 12:06 AM

#28

~Caligula~

adept

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 968

So, you get an A- for your NL game and you're running like death, so your solution is PLO and turbo sngs?

Riiiiight.

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11-18-2011 , 12:09 AM

#29

Gregg777

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 2,952

For a good low stakes player, yes.

But for a good poker player, then no.

You are decent at your stakes and ran into variance, which is obviously bigger than you imagined.

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11-18-2011 , 01:39 AM

#30

pokerman22

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 352

i dont think your EV line should be going down over 100k hands if your a winning player that is playing there solid game....

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11-18-2011 , 08:20 AM

#31

khublakhan

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 242

isapistola

- i only play $100nl live as online cash games are roughly ten times tougher than live (according to the experts) and 100 nl i smy confort level. Also live 6max games are very rare to there is not much of a comparison

- i agree 100k is not much but it is hardly meaningless. obviously this 100k does not include the 5 years of live cash and tournaments and the 2 years of online stts (2007-2009) where i didnt use any tracking software and the 100k of hands from cash previous to this in different formats

- i dont think saying i am a fairly good and consistent winning player is 'vastly overating myself'. Fairly good does not mean I think I am great

Thanks anyway

'Originally Posted by timtowdi
1. Stop playing ssplo. Anything <200plo is a rakepit.
2. Try all differnent sites, ongame, party etc. and see how you like the games.
3. Only play on peak Euro hours.
4. Stop playing ssplo. '

some good points and thanks, i play euro sites and try to play peak hours when possible (I live in Bangkok). I have pretty much stopped playing 100nl as it so much tougher these days.

luckily i have 55% rakeback which is cool

'So, you get an A- for your NL game and you're running like death, so your solution is PLO and turbo sngs'

I have played turbo stts for years so no problems there. i decided to play PLO to improve my overall game. i have a big bankroll so no problems playing plo 50

some of your seem pretty bitter in your tone, no need really

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11-18-2011 , 08:23 AM

#32

jewbinson

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 4,248

Quote:

Originally Posted by caddymix024

if you give enough monkeys infinite time at a typewriter one of them will eventually type shakespeare's hamlet

Wrong. It will happen with probability 1. But that does not mean for sure that it will happen...

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11-18-2011 , 04:02 PM

#33

geo8o2

old hand

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 1,449

Quote:

Originally Posted by jewbinson

Wrong. It will happen with probability 1. But that does not mean for sure that it will happen...

my head hurts

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11-18-2011 , 04:09 PM

#34

LostOstrich

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 15,933

Quote:

Originally Posted by jewbinson

Wrong. It will happen with probability 1. But that does not mean for sure that it will happen...

yeah I reckon they'd at least make a few spelling mistakes

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11-18-2011 , 04:10 PM

#35

lnternet

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 12,224

almost surely

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11-18-2011 , 05:30 PM

#36

Kingdom Hearts

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 1,319

"Can good players experience 100k downswings at low stakes online?"
- YES WITHOUT A DOUBT

"Can winning players experience 100k downswings at low stakes online?"
- SURELY IT COULD HAPPEN

"Can good winning players experience 100k downswings at low stakes online?"
- IMPOSSIBLE

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