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Brag: Five Royal Flushes so far this Month Brag: Five Royal Flushes so far this Month

12-14-2013 , 11:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlackFr1day
Odds of hitting a royal are around ~32,000/1 so if you got 5 in 250,000 hands, you're actually below the mean which isn't bragworthy IMO
Only if you're rich enough to play with VPIP and WTSD stats of 100%.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MeleaB
Your assumptions are miles out.

Whereas it's only a ~31,000/1 chance of getting a Royal Flush in Holdem if all community cards are seen (~65,000/1 if both hole cards are used), in reality the number of times those hands go to showdown is far less.

Even allowing for the fact that suited broadway cards have more chance of being played, the fact that there's a flush draw on the board restricts the chance of bets being called and a showdown being reached.

Additionally, the 31,000/1 number accounts for 21 five card combos from the board + hole cards, meaning that most combos that use only one hole card won't get played in the first place.

Of course, the stakes, number of players at the table, players' style and various other factors also play a part, so the best way to arrive at an estimate is by observing a large sample.

As a high-volume grinder who has played over 12,000,000 hands of small-stakes full-ring, averaging around 250,000 a month, I probably hit a Royal less than once a month of average. Therefore I would say that 250,000 - 300,000 hands is a pretty good estimate as to how often a player is likely to hit a Royal flush.

(Last month I switched from full-ring to 6-max, so that will have an effect, given that VPIPs are higher and showdowns are more common.)

Therefore the probability of anyone hitting five in a month (especially using both hole cards) is an extremely rare run of good fortune.
Brag: Five Royal Flushes so far this Month Quote
12-15-2013 , 03:11 AM
Quote:
Your assumptions are miles out.

Whereas it's only a ~31,000/1 chance of getting a Royal Flush in Holdem if all community cards are seen (~65,000/1 if both hole cards are used), in reality the number of times those hands go to showdown is far less.

Even allowing for the fact that suited broadway cards have more chance of being played, the fact that there's a flush draw on the board restricts the chance of bets being called and a showdown being reached.

Additionally, the 31,000/1 number accounts for 21 five card combos from the board + hole cards, meaning that most combos that use only one hole card won't get played in the first place.

Of course, the stakes, number of players at the table, players' style and various other factors also play a part, so the best way to arrive at an estimate is by observing a large sample.

As a high-volume grinder who has played over 12,000,000 hands of small-stakes full-ring, averaging around 250,000 a month, I probably hit a Royal less than once a month of average. Therefore I would say that 250,000 - 300,000 hands is a pretty good estimate as to how often a player is likely to hit a Royal flush.

(Last month I switched from full-ring to 6-max, so that will have an effect, given that VPIPs are higher and showdowns are more common.)

Therefore the probability of anyone hitting five in a month (especially using both hole cards) is an extremely rare run of good fortune.
To be fair, this is based on nothing but anecdotal evidence.

"I hit a royal once a month on average, so that's the norm"

lol
Brag: Five Royal Flushes so far this Month Quote
12-15-2013 , 10:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlackFr1day
Odds of hitting a royal are around ~32,000/1 so if you got 5 in 250,000 hands, you're actually below the mean which isn't bragworthy IMO
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlackFr1day
To be fair, this is based on nothing but anecdotal evidence.

"I hit a royal once a month on average, so that's the norm"

lol
OK then, we'll go with your assumption that everyone plays every hand and then takes all of those hands to showdown, and that we should hit one every 32,000 hands or so. That would seem to be far more accurate.

BEAT: Ran well below my expected 100 Royal Flushes this year.
Brag: Five Royal Flushes so far this Month Quote
12-15-2013 , 11:14 AM
Obviously ignorant, short-sighted, flawed mathematical assumptions > Empirical probability.
Brag: Five Royal Flushes so far this Month Quote
12-15-2013 , 01:11 PM
I mincashed the $5k Gtd Chromestar freeroll last night but you don't see me making threads about it.
Brag: Five Royal Flushes so far this Month Quote
12-15-2013 , 08:33 PM
Quote:
BEAT: Ran well below my expected 100 Royal Flushes this year.
Yep. Well, lock 'er up then /thread
Brag: Five Royal Flushes so far this Month Quote
12-17-2013 , 01:16 PM
wtf am i doing here
Brag: Five Royal Flushes so far this Month Quote
02-26-2014 , 01:18 PM
i think this is a pretty cool brag. melea is the ****ing man thx for posting them all. and ur killing it bro why not jump to $1/2 or $2/4 you could prolly Kill it profit wise in comparision. obv ur doing ok with rakeback and VPPs and shyt but why not?
Brag: Five Royal Flushes so far this Month Quote
02-26-2014 , 01:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MeleaB
I'll humour your points.

I I'm content with my 109 consecutive winning months and 7-figure profits during that time.
Good luck!
graph with dates or it didn't happen
Brag: Five Royal Flushes so far this Month Quote
02-26-2014 , 03:26 PM
That's freakish for Holdem. Nice1.
Brag: Five Royal Flushes so far this Month Quote
02-26-2014 , 09:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thabighurt35
graph with dates or it didn't happen
http://www.pokerstarsblog.com/2014/1...e-146298.shtml
Brag: Five Royal Flushes so far this Month Quote
02-27-2014 , 12:43 PM
Brag: Five Royal Flushes so far this Month Quote

      
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