Brag: Five Royal Flushes so far this Month - Page 5

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Brag: Five Royal Flushes so far this Month

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12-14-2013 , 11:50 PM

#101

MeleaB

See my Commercial Software thread

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 5,415

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlackFr1day

Odds of hitting a royal are around ~32,000/1 so if you got 5 in 250,000 hands, you're actually below the mean which isn't bragworthy IMO

Only if you're rich enough to play with VPIP and WTSD stats of 100%.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MeleaB

Your assumptions are miles out.

Whereas it's only a ~31,000/1 chance of getting a Royal Flush in Holdem if all community cards are seen (~65,000/1 if both hole cards are used), in reality the number of times those hands go to showdown is far less.

Even allowing for the fact that suited broadway cards have more chance of being played, the fact that there's a flush draw on the board restricts the chance of bets being called and a showdown being reached.

Additionally, the 31,000/1 number accounts for 21 five card combos from the board + hole cards, meaning that most combos that use only one hole card won't get played in the first place.

Of course, the stakes, number of players at the table, players' style and various other factors also play a part, so the best way to arrive at an estimate is by observing a large sample.

As a high-volume grinder who has played over 12,000,000 hands of small-stakes full-ring, averaging around 250,000 a month, I probably hit a Royal less than once a month of average. Therefore I would say that 250,000 - 300,000 hands is a pretty good estimate as to how often a player is likely to hit a Royal flush.

(Last month I switched from full-ring to 6-max, so that will have an effect, given that VPIPs are higher and showdowns are more common.)

Therefore the probability of anyone hitting five in a month (especially using both hole cards) is an extremely rare run of good fortune.

Quote

12-15-2013 , 03:11 AM

#102

BlackFr1day

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 1,629

Quote:

To be fair, this is based on nothing but anecdotal evidence.

"I hit a royal once a month on average, so that's the norm"

lol

Quote

12-15-2013 , 10:41 AM

#103

MeleaB

See my Commercial Software thread

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 5,415

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlackFr1day

Odds of hitting a royal are around ~32,000/1 so if you got 5 in 250,000 hands, you're actually below the mean which isn't bragworthy IMO

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlackFr1day

To be fair, this is based on nothing but anecdotal evidence.

"I hit a royal once a month on average, so that's the norm"

lol

OK then, we'll go with your assumption that everyone plays every hand and then takes all of those hands to showdown, and that we should hit one every 32,000 hands or so. That would seem to be far more accurate.

BEAT: Ran well below my expected 100 Royal Flushes this year.

Quote

12-15-2013 , 11:14 AM

#104

MeleaB

See my Commercial Software thread

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 5,415

Obviously ignorant, short-sighted, flawed mathematical assumptions > Empirical probability.

Quote

12-15-2013 , 01:11 PM

#105

ShellysAshes

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 3,677

I mincashed the $5k Gtd Chromestar freeroll last night but you don't see me making threads about it.

Quote

12-15-2013 , 08:33 PM

#106

BlackFr1day

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 1,629

Quote:

BEAT: Ran well below my expected 100 Royal Flushes this year.

Yep. Well, lock 'er up then /thread

Quote

12-17-2013 , 01:16 PM

#107

darthwager

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 2,211

wtf am i doing here

Quote

02-26-2014 , 01:18 PM

#108

Ambedexteras

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 174

i think this is a pretty cool brag. melea is the ****ing man thx for posting them all. and ur killing it bro why not jump to $1/2 or $2/4 you could prolly Kill it profit wise in comparision. obv ur doing ok with rakeback and VPPs and shyt but why not?