Advice requested - Page 2 - Poker Beats Brags and Variance

Two Plus Two Forums Poker News & Discussion Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance

Advice requested

Closed Subscribe

...

Page 2 of 2

1 2

Page 2 of 2

1 2

02-18-2010 , 12:27 PM

#26

prodonkey

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 14,597

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smaptastic

When you run 100 buyins below EV, you tend to focus in on it.

Furthermore, I'm confused by your statement that everyone runs below EV. Taking as a given that you probably talk mostly with good players who are either winning or at least losing below the average, and also taking for granted that the previous fact usually means that the people you know are getting it in with the best hand...

How does saying that you know a bunch of people who usually get it in with the best hand and all run below EV do anything to show that FTP is NOT set up for suckouts? What you just told me, in effect, is that almost everyone you know gets sucked out on (or misses their legit draws) more often than the norm. I don't know how to better define a rigged system than that.

EV isn't a polite mathematical compliment telling you that you're special and should be running much better than you are. It's a hard indicator of exactly where you should be running. If you're below it, you're running bad. If you're above it, you're running well. If you're on the extreme end either way, you're running phenomenally bad/well.

If you were to take a complete, 100% sample of the entire poker community on any given day/week/month/year and look at every hand everyone played, the EV would be EXACTLY even. It's simply impossible for everyone to run below it.

Say for example you are playing 100nl, you flop a set, and $90 goes in, then you get the other $10 in but the guy turned a flush.. just to make the math simple say u have 25% equity on turn.. so you should lose $50 overall in this spot according to an ev program. Now say all the $ went in on the flop and you were 70%, now it's going to say you should win $70 overall. Say the board runs out the exact same both times and you lose to the flush.. are you running worse in the 2nd situation?
#1 ur $50 under ev.. #2 ur $170 under ev

02-18-2010 , 12:30 PM

#27

jumboAL

adept

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,199

Quote:

Originally Posted by cds0699

lol cds you sicko, at least give me some credit for the picture

edit : although it is your quote that i modified, but still.

Last edited by jumboAL; 02-18-2010 at 12:30 PM. Reason: cds is so sick

02-18-2010 , 12:32 PM

#28

cds0699

LOSING

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 9,018

Quote:

Originally Posted by jumboAL

lol cds you sicko, at least give me some credit for the picture

edit : although it is your quote that i modified, but still.

I do appologize, you are correct. JumboAL did make that picture, I just loved its awesomeness so I reposted it here

I'm also tempted to make it my avatar

02-18-2010 , 12:35 PM

#29

jumboAL

adept

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,199

Quote:

Originally Posted by cds0699

I do appologize, you are correct. JumboAL did make that picture, I just loved its awesomeness so I reposted it here

I'm also tempted to make it my avatar

Haha you have my blessing to use it as your avatar.

Spoiler:

02-18-2010 , 12:39 PM

#30

cds0699

LOSING

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 9,018

Quote:

Originally Posted by jumboAL

Haha you have my blessing to use it as your avatar.

Spoiler:

Cool, Its only bout tree fiddy

02-18-2010 , 12:46 PM

#31

Smaptastic

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 84

Quote:

Originally Posted by prodonkey

I understand how the EV calculations work. They also don't at all take into account spots such as you described where the flush hits on the river (with $90 of your $100 in the pot) and the last $10 gets in on the river. In that spot, you lose all your money and run dead-on EV, as far as HEM is concerned.

It works both ways though. And actually, given the way my hands tend to play out, that's something that works AGAINST me in the EV calculations (ie - it actually makes it look like I'm running better than I really am). Of course, that's a more difficult concept to prove, so I didn't even bring it up in the main post.

Page 2 of 2

First

1 2

Last

Closed Thread Subscribe

...

Page 2 of 2

First

1 2

Last