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86%, to 9%, to 98%, to lost the hand 86%, to 9%, to 98%, to lost the hand

02-10-2023 , 01:25 AM
1/3 NL
QQ in the BB
OMC limps, as do 4 others.

Hero raises to $28
OMC Calls, as do 2 others

Flop JJTr

Hero bets $60
OMC calls in such a way that I know he hit that flop hard
All others fold.

Hero is all but done with the hand until ...

Turn Q

Hero bets $60 hoping OMC will shove for him. OMC calls.

River: case J

Hero checks, OMC bets $70, hero flushes $70 down the toilet as OMC could have TT.

OMC tables JT.

Sigh.
86%, to 9%, to 98%, to lost the hand Quote
02-10-2023 , 02:31 AM
If he is true OMC there is no way he has TT when he bets the river.
86%, to 9%, to 98%, to lost the hand Quote
02-10-2023 , 04:26 AM
What is the point of this thread
86%, to 9%, to 98%, to lost the hand Quote
02-10-2023 , 08:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by steinbitur
What is the point of this thread
I think OP may have forgotten to include the punchline, otherwise
86%, to 9%, to 98%, to lost the hand Quote
02-10-2023 , 01:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by steinbitur
What is the point of this thread
Are you saying bad beats shouldn't be posted in BBV?
86%, to 9%, to 98%, to lost the hand Quote
02-10-2023 , 02:36 PM
Op, if you average out your chances of winning throughout the four betting intervals, (Pre, Flop, Turn, River,) you get 86% + 9% + 98% + 0% / 4 which gives you an average chance of winning of only 48.25%, therefore the OMC was actually a favorite to win the hand. Also it is pretty shabby of you to lament the fact that you failed to put a bad beat on the OMC, who had quads which are obviously much better than a measly Full House. Best hand won and for once in the history of BBV you actually could fold River; instead you called in some masochistic frenzy of self-harm, and felt compelled to come here and tell us about it for some unknown reason?

tldr; every loss is not a bad beat & you deserved it for picking on some poor OMC.
86%, to 9%, to 98%, to lost the hand Quote
02-10-2023 , 02:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2pairsof2s
Op, if you average out your chances of winning throughout the four betting intervals, (Pre, Flop, Turn, River,) you get 86% + 9% + 98% + 0% / 4 which gives you an average chance of winning of only 48.25%, therefore the OMC was actually a favorite to win the hand. Also it is pretty shabby of you to lament the fact that you failed to put a bad beat on the OMC, who had quads which are obviously much better than a measly Full House. Best hand won and for once in the history of BBV you actually could fold River; instead you called in some masochistic frenzy of self-harm, and felt compelled to come here and tell us about it for some unknown reason?

tldr; every loss is not a bad beat & you deserved it for picking on some poor OMC.
DOH!?!? WTF!

"Frenzy of self-harm"!? "The OMC was actually a favorite to win the hand"!?

OK, you got me. It took me this long to get the joke - well played.
86%, to 9%, to 98%, to lost the hand Quote
02-10-2023 , 06:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JayKon
DOH!?!? WTF!

"Frenzy of self-harm"!? "The OMC was actually a favorite to win the hand"!?

OK, you got me. It took me this long to get the joke - well played.
Please try to remember you have a lot to live for. Losing a 50/50 in poker is not the end of the world.
86%, to 9%, to 98%, to lost the hand Quote
02-10-2023 , 06:13 PM
It's not whether you won or lost, but how many bad-beat stories you were able to tell that weren't actual bad beats.
86%, to 9%, to 98%, to lost the hand Quote
02-10-2023 , 09:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by orb_dam_u
It's not whether you won or lost, but how many bad-beat stories you were able to tell that weren't actual bad beats.
Do you actually think this wasn't a bad beat?
86%, to 9%, to 98%, to lost the hand Quote
02-10-2023 , 09:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JayKon
Do you actually think this wasn't a bad beat?
The actual bad beat here is being on this forum for 20 years and not knowing what BBV is.
86%, to 9%, to 98%, to lost the hand Quote
02-10-2023 , 10:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BornToRun
The actual bad beat here is being on this forum for 20 years and not knowing what BBV is.
OK, you're an idiot.
86%, to 9%, to 98%, to lost the hand Quote
02-13-2023 , 10:10 PM
Hmmm, I would say a check/fold is in order or a bet/fold to a reraise. Either way I know I am beat but just in case the bet and getting reraised would confirm it rather than a check and face a bet. Just me. If he just calls then you can confirm his hand and be in no worse shape.
86%, to 9%, to 98%, to lost the hand Quote
02-14-2023 , 01:14 AM
OK, I prefer to avoid strategy in this forum, but since you insist.

When the OMC bets $70 on the river, the pot is $410. That gives me ~6:1 on the call.

So, what is his range?

Well, I did think he hit the flop hard, and as good as my live reads may be, they aren't always right. Conservatively, I give myself a 60% accuracy rate.

So, any JT, QJ, TT, Tx, Qx, KK & AA are still possible, maybe even 77-99. Why KK+? OMCs love to play passively and let others do the betting. So, while doing table math, I lose to about a 1/3 of his holdings and win against the other 2/3.

The problem is that I'm weighing the 1/3 at 60% and the remainder at 30% (yes I trashed 10% as a fudge factor).

Another piece of information I would have provided in a strategy forum was that he started the hand with ~$500 and I had him covered. So, he bet the $70 with about $300 behind. That bet screams value more than the nuts.

Now I admit to providing more detail here than what was done in-game, however, this is very close to my thinking at the time.

In short, his river bet was small enough that his hand range was wide enough.
86%, to 9%, to 98%, to lost the hand Quote
02-14-2023 , 05:57 AM
Should have gotten it all in on the turn, that way he doesn't hit the jack
86%, to 9%, to 98%, to lost the hand Quote
02-14-2023 , 12:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JayKon
OK, I prefer to avoid strategy in this forum, but since you insist.

When the OMC bets $70 on the river, the pot is $410. That gives me ~6:1 on the call.

So, what is his range?

Well, I did think he hit the flop hard, and as good as my live reads may be, they aren't always right. Conservatively, I give myself a 60% accuracy rate.

So, any JT, QJ, TT, Tx, Qx, KK & AA are still possible, maybe even 77-99. Why KK+? OMCs love to play passively and let others do the betting. So, while doing table math, I lose to about a 1/3 of his holdings and win against the other 2/3.

The problem is that I'm weighing the 1/3 at 60% and the remainder at 30% (yes I trashed 10% as a fudge factor).

Another piece of information I would have provided in a strategy forum was that he started the hand with ~$500 and I had him covered. So, he bet the $70 with about $300 behind. That bet screams value more than the nuts.

Now I admit to providing more detail here than what was done in-game, however, this is very close to my thinking at the time.

In short, his river bet was small enough that his hand range was wide enough.
Reported to the mods.
86%, to 9%, to 98%, to lost the hand Quote
02-14-2023 , 01:00 PM
I guess BBV is no longer about bad beats. Not sure what it is about, but it seems like a place for trolls to gather.
86%, to 9%, to 98%, to lost the hand Quote
02-14-2023 , 11:40 PM
Yes, I miss the good old days, when we had classic threads like this one:

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/5...73/?highlight=
86%, to 9%, to 98%, to lost the hand Quote
02-15-2023 , 02:55 AM
Dude, you have a lot of free time and little purpose in life.
86%, to 9%, to 98%, to lost the hand Quote
02-15-2023 , 06:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JayKon
Dude, you have a lot of free time and little purpose in life.
Says the man who typed out a full hand history in BBV...
86%, to 9%, to 98%, to lost the hand Quote
02-16-2023 , 07:32 AM
Lol at thinking he would bet a ten
86%, to 9%, to 98%, to lost the hand Quote
02-22-2023 , 01:53 PM
You ovr bet your pair of queens made a big pot with only a pair and got beat by a bigger hand. Old saying goes: How much you loss with a pair is your true ability.
86%, to 9%, to 98%, to lost the hand Quote

      
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