08 so far... - Page 18 - Poker Beats Brags and Variance

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08-20-2008 , 05:47 AM

#426

The4thFilm

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 13,472

He only loses a 70/30 every 2400 hands...he runs like god.

Quote

08-20-2008 , 01:52 PM

#427

sluggger5x

John Connor of poker

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 5,592

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vantek

slugger, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE do the same for hands where you were
1) >70% leader and won
2) <30% underdog and sucked out
3) <30% underdog and lost

I did "<30% underdog and sucked out" and found that I sucked out 96 times! Still 40 times less than when I was sucked out on though.

What if I set the all in win% at 50% and see how many pots I win/lose + and - 50%??

Quote

08-20-2008 , 02:03 PM

#428

ChulioBarth

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,253

Another important question: why have you still monies to play with?

Quote

08-20-2008 , 05:04 PM

#429

sluggger5x

John Connor of poker

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 5,592

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vantek

slugger, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE do the same for hands where you were
1) >70% leader and won
2) <30% underdog and sucked out
3) <30% underdog and lost

Ok, I broke down the variance in 4 ways using the HEM filter:

Got all-in 50%+ favorite and won:
http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...n50wonhand.jpg

Got all-in 50%+ favorite and lost:
http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...g/89e82fc2.jpg

Got all-in 50%- underdog and won:
http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...g/dcba959b.jpg

Got all-in 50$- underdog and lost:
http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...g/534b650a.jpg

So for all-in pots it looks like:

I got my money in ahead and won 1,528 hands and won $88,678.90

I got my money in ahead and lost 483 hands and lost -$24,158.40

I got my money in behind and won 323 hands and won $18,411.65

I got my money in behind and lost 1,354 hands and lost -$87,716.75

Got my money in ahead 2,011 times for +$64,520
Got my money in behind 1,677 times for -$69,305

Sucked out on: 483 times
Sucked out: 323 times

Last edited by sluggger5x; 08-20-2008 at 05:10 PM.

Quote

08-20-2008 , 05:54 PM

#430

█████

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 3,120

Quote:

Originally Posted by sluggger5x

The numbers at the last don't decide how lucky/unlucky you were, they should be ratio's of the total numbers. Also, you might be getting it in ahead with a lower % win chance & getting it in behind with a higher % win chance. Or whatever. But that's what PokerEV's for. Numbers like these are ******ed, since they're not meaningful at all. Asymmetrical distributions

Quote

08-20-2008 , 08:12 PM

#431

Shizzle12345

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 7,574

UNINSTALL THE CANCER!!!!

Quote

08-20-2008 , 08:26 PM

#432

LouGehrig

stranger

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 8

Consider yourself the unluckiest man on the face of the earth.

imo

Quote

08-20-2008 , 09:27 PM

#433

cincyreds07

newbie

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 22

Quote:

Originally Posted by LouGehrig

Consider yourself the unluckiest man on the face of the earth.

imo

lol at Lou Gehrig post

Quote

08-21-2008 , 12:05 AM

#434

sluggger5x

John Connor of poker

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 5,592

Quote:

Originally Posted by LouGehrig

Consider yourself the unluckiest man on the face of the earth.

imo

lmao. I love Lou Gehrig.

Quote

08-21-2008 , 01:20 AM

#435

Paul McSwizzle

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 5,531

wait, you quit?

Quote

08-21-2008 , 03:37 AM

#436

sluggger5x

John Connor of poker

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 5,592

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul McSwizzle

wait, you quit?

Just finished my last session of the summer. I plan on not even thinking about poker for a month. Maybe come back to posting in a month and playing in a two months. We'll have to see where I'm at mentally, as I'm completely crushed right now for obvious reasons.

I'm officially -99 buyins in AI equity, I almost wanted to play a few more hands and hit 100, but decided not to.

Thanks everyone for the kind sympathy and support! I'm down and out now, but I'll promise you all I will come back strong and turn this beat into a brag!!!!

GL to everyone!!!

-slug

Quote

08-21-2008 , 03:54 AM

#437

Gr8erThanGr8

adept

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 748

we don't believe you you need more people

Quote

08-21-2008 , 05:15 AM

#438

Vantek

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 5,806

Quote:

Just finished my last session of the summer.

How'd it go?

Quote

08-21-2008 , 06:26 AM

#439

clarkatroid

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 2,127

make a list like earl

Quote

09-09-2008 , 03:25 PM

#440

jmakin

banned

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 30,120

this thread cheers me up

slugger

so what did you think of dark knight when harvey says "the only morality in a cruel world is chance"

did that just monkey tilt the hell out of you?

Last edited by jmakin; 09-09-2008 at 03:35 PM.

Quote

09-09-2008 , 04:04 PM

#441

nihil2501

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 2,789

Quote:

Originally Posted by jmakinmecrzy

this thread cheers me up

slugger

so what did you think of dark knight when harvey says "the only morality in a cruel world is chance"

did that just monkey tilt the hell out of you?

LOLOLOLOL SO FUNNY

Last edited by nihil2501; 09-09-2008 at 04:05 PM. Reason: i needed to bold the part that is obviously the main content of this post that i am referring to!!!

Quote

09-09-2008 , 04:10 PM

#442

Gr8erThanGr8

adept

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 748

gross

Quote

09-17-2008 , 12:55 PM

#443

shakermaker3

banned

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 308

sorry if this was asked , but wat site?

Quote

09-17-2008 , 03:22 PM

#444

burden2

banned

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 969

If I knew for sure you were a sound player, your graph might make me quit poker.

Maybe you will have great luck in other areas of life?

Did I read that right? 80,000 hands? I just realized I've been shaking my head for like a whole minute

Quote

09-17-2008 , 03:29 PM

#445

Speel Posher

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 7,355

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vantek

How'd it go?

l laughed

Quote

09-17-2008 , 03:33 PM

#446

Speel Posher

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 7,355

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pumpui

I dont know but after 360k hand.. i would realise that going all in on draws a lot or with marginal edges on the flop isnt working and i would try to change my style towaiting for the river to shove...

srsly?

you are actually ******ed arent you?

Quote

09-17-2008 , 06:38 PM

#447

absoludicrous

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 10,091

So basically this thread proves that luck is something.

Quote

09-17-2008 , 07:41 PM

#448

Idiotex

adept

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 718

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alobar

This thread should seriously be stickied

It absolutely sucks ball to run 60 buy ins below expectation. But it can and does happen. If you're a big winner OP, suck it up, play 100nl HU and you can win back your money in a couple of weeks and put it behind you.

Good luck good luck.