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Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance Here's where you put your whines and wins. |
08-20-2008, 05:47 AM
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#426
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 13,472
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Re: 08 so far...
He only loses a 70/30 every 2400 hands...he runs like god.
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08-20-2008, 01:52 PM
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#427
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John Connor of poker
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fight for Poker Rights Action Thred
Posts: 5,592
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Re: 08 so far...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vantek
slugger, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE do the same for hands where you were
1) >70% leader and won
2) <30% underdog and sucked out
3) <30% underdog and lost
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I did "<30% underdog and sucked out" and found that I sucked out 96 times! Still 40 times less than when I was sucked out on though.
What if I set the all in win% at 50% and see how many pots I win/lose + and - 50%??
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08-20-2008, 02:03 PM
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#428
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old hand
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 1,253
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Re: 08 so far...
Another important question: why have you still monies to play with?
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08-20-2008, 05:04 PM
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#429
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John Connor of poker
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fight for Poker Rights Action Thred
Posts: 5,592
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Re: 08 so far...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vantek
slugger, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE do the same for hands where you were
1) >70% leader and won
2) <30% underdog and sucked out
3) <30% underdog and lost
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Ok, I broke down the variance in 4 ways using the HEM filter:
Got all-in 50%+ favorite and won:
http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...n50wonhand.jpg
Got all-in 50%+ favorite and lost:
http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...g/89e82fc2.jpg
Got all-in 50%- underdog and won:
http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...g/dcba959b.jpg
Got all-in 50$- underdog and lost:
http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...g/534b650a.jpg
So for all-in pots it looks like:
I got my money in ahead and won 1,528 hands and won $88,678.90
I got my money in ahead and lost 483 hands and lost -$24,158.40
I got my money in behind and won 323 hands and won $18,411.65
I got my money in behind and lost 1,354 hands and lost -$87,716.75
Got my money in ahead 2,011 times for +$64,520
Got my money in behind 1,677 times for -$69,305
Sucked out on: 483 times
Sucked out: 323 times
Last edited by sluggger5x; 08-20-2008 at 05:10 PM.
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08-20-2008, 05:54 PM
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#430
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veteran
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: █████
Posts: 3,120
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Re: 08 so far...
Quote:
Originally Posted by sluggger5x
Ok, I broke down the variance in 4 ways using the HEM filter:
Got all-in 50%+ favorite and won:
http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...n50wonhand.jpg
Got all-in 50%+ favorite and lost:
http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...g/89e82fc2.jpg
Got all-in 50%- underdog and won:
http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...g/dcba959b.jpg
Got all-in 50$- underdog and lost:
http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...g/534b650a.jpg
So for all-in pots it looks like:
I got my money in ahead and won 1,528 hands and won $88,678.90
I got my money in ahead and lost 483 hands and lost -$24,158.40
I got my money in behind and won 323 hands and won $18,411.65
I got my money in behind and lost 1,354 hands and lost -$87,716.75
Got my money in ahead 2,011 times for +$64,520
Got my money in behind 1,677 times for -$69,305
Sucked out on: 483 times
Sucked out: 323 times
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The numbers at the last don't decide how lucky/unlucky you were, they should be ratio's of the total numbers. Also, you might be getting it in ahead with a lower % win chance & getting it in behind with a higher % win chance. Or whatever. But that's what PokerEV's for. Numbers like these are ******ed, since they're not meaningful at all. Asymmetrical distributions
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08-20-2008, 08:12 PM
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#431
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: verified donk
Posts: 7,574
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Re: 08 so far...
UNINSTALL THE CANCER!!!!
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08-20-2008, 08:26 PM
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#432
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stranger
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Luckiest man on the face of earth
Posts: 8
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Re: 08 so far...
Consider yourself the unluckiest man on the face of the earth.
imo
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08-20-2008, 09:27 PM
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#433
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newbie
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 22
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Re: 08 so far...
Quote:
Originally Posted by LouGehrig
Consider yourself the unluckiest man on the face of the earth.
imo
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lol at Lou Gehrig post
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08-21-2008, 12:05 AM
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#434
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John Connor of poker
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fight for Poker Rights Action Thred
Posts: 5,592
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Re: 08 so far...
Quote:
Originally Posted by LouGehrig
Consider yourself the unluckiest man on the face of the earth.
imo
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lmao. I love Lou Gehrig.
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08-21-2008, 01:20 AM
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#435
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Pooh-Bah
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: but her emails
Posts: 5,529
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Re: 08 so far...
wait, you quit?
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08-21-2008, 03:37 AM
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#436
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John Connor of poker
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fight for Poker Rights Action Thred
Posts: 5,592
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Re: 08 so far...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul McSwizzle
wait, you quit?
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Just finished my last session of the summer. I plan on not even thinking about poker for a month. Maybe come back to posting in a month and playing in a two months. We'll have to see where I'm at mentally, as I'm completely crushed right now for obvious reasons.
I'm officially -99 buyins in AI equity, I almost wanted to play a few more hands and hit 100, but decided not to.
Thanks everyone for the kind sympathy and support! I'm down and out now, but I'll promise you all I will come back strong and turn this beat into a brag!!!!
GL to everyone!!!
-slug
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08-21-2008, 03:54 AM
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#437
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adept
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Boston
Posts: 748
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Re: 08 so far...
we don't believe you you need more people
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08-21-2008, 05:15 AM
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#438
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Pooh-Bah
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Estonia
Posts: 5,850
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Re: 08 so far...
Quote:
Just finished my last session of the summer.
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How'd it go?
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08-21-2008, 06:26 AM
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#439
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veteran
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: blackpool donkey
Posts: 2,127
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Re: 08 so far...
make a list like earl
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09-09-2008, 03:25 PM
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#440
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DoorDash Balla
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Streaming
Posts: 29,624
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Re: 08 so far...
this thread cheers me up
 slugger
so what did you think of dark knight when harvey says "the only morality in a cruel world is chance"
did that just monkey tilt the hell out of you?
Last edited by jmakin; 09-09-2008 at 03:35 PM.
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09-09-2008, 04:04 PM
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#441
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veteran
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: 6g1p
Posts: 2,789
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Re: 08 so far...
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmakinmecrzy
this thread cheers me up
 slugger
so what did you think of dark knight when harvey says "the only morality in a cruel world is chance"
did that just monkey tilt the hell out of you?
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LOLOLOLOL SO FUNNY
Last edited by nihil2501; 09-09-2008 at 04:05 PM.
Reason: i needed to bold the part that is obviously the main content of this post that i am referring to!!!
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09-09-2008, 04:10 PM
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#442
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adept
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Boston
Posts: 748
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Re: 08 so far...
gross
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09-17-2008, 12:55 PM
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#443
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banned
Join Date: May 2007
Location: world
Posts: 308
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Re: 08 so far...
sorry if this was asked , but wat site?
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09-17-2008, 03:22 PM
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#444
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banned
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 969
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Re: 08 so far...
If I knew for sure you were a sound player, your graph might make me quit poker.
Maybe you will have great luck in other areas of life?
Did I read that right? 80,000 hands? I just realized I've been shaking my head for like a whole minute
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09-17-2008, 03:29 PM
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#445
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: May 2007
Location: check me out, im grindin...
Posts: 7,355
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Re: 08 so far...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vantek
How'd it go?
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l laughed
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09-17-2008, 03:33 PM
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#446
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: May 2007
Location: check me out, im grindin...
Posts: 7,355
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Re: 08 so far...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pumpui
I dont know but after 360k hand.. i would realise that going all in on draws a lot or with marginal edges on the flop isnt working and i would try to change my style towaiting for the river to shove...
srsly?
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you are actually ******ed arent you?
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09-17-2008, 06:38 PM
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#447
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: You like the stache?
Posts: 10,091
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Re: 08 so far...
So basically this thread proves that luck is something.
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09-17-2008, 07:41 PM
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#448
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adept
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Min Donking A Wide Range
Posts: 719
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Re: 08 so far...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alobar
This thread should seriously be stickied
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It absolutely sucks ball to run 60 buy ins below expectation. But it can and does happen. If you're a big winner OP, suck it up, play 100nl HU and you can win back your money in a couple of weeks and put it behind you.
Good luck good luck.
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10-05-2008, 09:15 PM
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#449
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adept
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: warm
Posts: 841
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Re: 08 so far...
how do you set up the HEM filters to show you all that ?
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10-08-2008, 11:38 AM
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#450
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adept
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: warm
Posts: 841
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Re: 08 so far...
srsly.. plz
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