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Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance Here's where you put your whines and wins.

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Old 08-20-2008, 05:47 AM   #426
The4thFilm
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Re: 08 so far...

He only loses a 70/30 every 2400 hands...he runs like god.
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Old 08-20-2008, 01:52 PM   #427
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vantek View Post
slugger, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE do the same for hands where you were
1) >70% leader and won
2) <30% underdog and sucked out
3) <30% underdog and lost

I did "<30% underdog and sucked out" and found that I sucked out 96 times! Still 40 times less than when I was sucked out on though.

What if I set the all in win% at 50% and see how many pots I win/lose + and - 50%??
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Old 08-20-2008, 02:03 PM   #428
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Re: 08 so far...

Another important question: why have you still monies to play with?
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Old 08-20-2008, 05:04 PM   #429
sluggger5x
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vantek View Post
slugger, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE do the same for hands where you were
1) >70% leader and won
2) <30% underdog and sucked out
3) <30% underdog and lost
Ok, I broke down the variance in 4 ways using the HEM filter:

Got all-in 50%+ favorite and won:
http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...n50wonhand.jpg

Got all-in 50%+ favorite and lost:
http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...g/89e82fc2.jpg

Got all-in 50%- underdog and won:
http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...g/dcba959b.jpg

Got all-in 50$- underdog and lost:
http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...g/534b650a.jpg


So for all-in pots it looks like:

I got my money in ahead and won 1,528 hands and won $88,678.90

I got my money in ahead and lost 483 hands and lost -$24,158.40

I got my money in behind and won 323 hands and won $18,411.65

I got my money in behind and lost 1,354 hands and lost -$87,716.75

Got my money in ahead 2,011 times for +$64,520
Got my money in behind 1,677 times for -$69,305

Sucked out on: 483 times
Sucked out: 323 times

Last edited by sluggger5x; 08-20-2008 at 05:10 PM.
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Old 08-20-2008, 05:54 PM   #430
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by sluggger5x View Post
Ok, I broke down the variance in 4 ways using the HEM filter:

Got all-in 50%+ favorite and won:
http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...n50wonhand.jpg

Got all-in 50%+ favorite and lost:
http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...g/89e82fc2.jpg

Got all-in 50%- underdog and won:
http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...g/dcba959b.jpg

Got all-in 50$- underdog and lost:
http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...g/534b650a.jpg


So for all-in pots it looks like:

I got my money in ahead and won 1,528 hands and won $88,678.90

I got my money in ahead and lost 483 hands and lost -$24,158.40

I got my money in behind and won 323 hands and won $18,411.65

I got my money in behind and lost 1,354 hands and lost -$87,716.75

Got my money in ahead 2,011 times for +$64,520
Got my money in behind 1,677 times for -$69,305

Sucked out on: 483 times
Sucked out: 323 times
The numbers at the last don't decide how lucky/unlucky you were, they should be ratio's of the total numbers. Also, you might be getting it in ahead with a lower % win chance & getting it in behind with a higher % win chance. Or whatever. But that's what PokerEV's for. Numbers like these are ******ed, since they're not meaningful at all. Asymmetrical distributions
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Old 08-20-2008, 08:12 PM   #431
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Re: 08 so far...

UNINSTALL THE CANCER!!!!
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Old 08-20-2008, 08:26 PM   #432
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Re: 08 so far...

Consider yourself the unluckiest man on the face of the earth.

imo
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Old 08-20-2008, 09:27 PM   #433
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by LouGehrig View Post
Consider yourself the unluckiest man on the face of the earth.

imo
lol at Lou Gehrig post
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Old 08-21-2008, 12:05 AM   #434
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by LouGehrig View Post
Consider yourself the unluckiest man on the face of the earth.

imo
lmao. I love Lou Gehrig.
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Old 08-21-2008, 01:20 AM   #435
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Re: 08 so far...

wait, you quit?
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Old 08-21-2008, 03:37 AM   #436
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul McSwizzle View Post
wait, you quit?
Just finished my last session of the summer. I plan on not even thinking about poker for a month. Maybe come back to posting in a month and playing in a two months. We'll have to see where I'm at mentally, as I'm completely crushed right now for obvious reasons.

I'm officially -99 buyins in AI equity, I almost wanted to play a few more hands and hit 100, but decided not to.

Thanks everyone for the kind sympathy and support! I'm down and out now, but I'll promise you all I will come back strong and turn this beat into a brag!!!!

GL to everyone!!!

-slug
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Old 08-21-2008, 03:54 AM   #437
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Re: 08 so far...

we don't believe you you need more people
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Old 08-21-2008, 05:15 AM   #438
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Just finished my last session of the summer.
How'd it go?
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Old 08-21-2008, 06:26 AM   #439
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Re: 08 so far...

make a list like earl
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Old 09-09-2008, 03:25 PM   #440
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Re: 08 so far...

this thread cheers me up

slugger

so what did you think of dark knight when harvey says "the only morality in a cruel world is chance"

did that just monkey tilt the hell out of you?

Last edited by jmakin; 09-09-2008 at 03:35 PM.
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Old 09-09-2008, 04:04 PM   #441
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by jmakinmecrzy View Post
this thread cheers me up

slugger

so what did you think of dark knight when harvey says "the only morality in a cruel world is chance"

did that just monkey tilt the hell out of you?
LOLOLOLOL SO FUNNY

Last edited by nihil2501; 09-09-2008 at 04:05 PM. Reason: i needed to bold the part that is obviously the main content of this post that i am referring to!!!
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Old 09-09-2008, 04:10 PM   #442
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Re: 08 so far...

gross
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Old 09-17-2008, 12:55 PM   #443
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Re: 08 so far...

sorry if this was asked , but wat site?
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Old 09-17-2008, 03:22 PM   #444
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Re: 08 so far...

If I knew for sure you were a sound player, your graph might make me quit poker.

Maybe you will have great luck in other areas of life?

Did I read that right? 80,000 hands? I just realized I've been shaking my head for like a whole minute
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Old 09-17-2008, 03:29 PM   #445
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vantek View Post
How'd it go?
l laughed
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Old 09-17-2008, 03:33 PM   #446
Speel Posher
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pumpui View Post
I dont know but after 360k hand.. i would realise that going all in on draws a lot or with marginal edges on the flop isnt working and i would try to change my style towaiting for the river to shove...


srsly?

you are actually ******ed arent you?
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Old 09-17-2008, 06:38 PM   #447
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Re: 08 so far...

So basically this thread proves that luck is something.
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Old 09-17-2008, 07:41 PM   #448
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alobar View Post
This thread should seriously be stickied
It absolutely sucks ball to run 60 buy ins below expectation. But it can and does happen. If you're a big winner OP, suck it up, play 100nl HU and you can win back your money in a couple of weeks and put it behind you.

Good luck good luck.
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Old 10-05-2008, 09:15 PM   #449
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Re: 08 so far...

how do you set up the HEM filters to show you all that ?
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Old 10-08-2008, 11:38 AM   #450
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Re: 08 so far...

srsly.. plz
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