08 so far... - Page 14 - Poker Beats Brags and Variance

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07-30-2008 , 03:34 PM

#326

Vantek

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 5,806

Quote:

7,093bb(bb won)-15,717bb(equity adjusted) = -8,624bb (below expectiation)

What does this mean.

Quote

07-30-2008 , 03:37 PM

#327

fozzy71

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 38,192

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vantek

What does this mean.

-8,624bb (below expectiation)

It means he is unlucky when he goes all in, to the tune of -86 buy ins.

Quote

07-30-2008 , 03:38 PM

#328

Vantek

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 5,806

I mean -15,717bb(equity adjusted)

Quote

07-30-2008 , 03:44 PM

#329

LuckyfishZ

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 2,361

Maybe RNG is rigged ? lol

Quote

07-30-2008 , 03:49 PM

#330

fozzy71

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 38,192

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vantek

I mean -15,717bb(equity adjusted)

That is what he would have won, if he had ran AT expectation, and not been unlucky. The 'below expectation' is the difference between what he should have won and actually won.

Quote

07-30-2008 , 07:25 PM

#331

p3rc4

banned

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 10,991

[x] Sympathy
[ ] Pray for OP
[x] Atheist

Quote

07-30-2008 , 07:31 PM

#332

I Gotta Push

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 2,109

this is a great example of that mathematical thingy where you have multiple starting points and add +1 or -1 to each one every turn and eventually they are all spread out ?.?

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07-30-2008 , 07:36 PM

#333

hobokes

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 6,344

this is brutal, keep your head in the game, bro

Quote

07-30-2008 , 08:05 PM

#334

GBP04

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 7,941

maybe you should check-raise more

Quote

07-30-2008 , 09:23 PM

#335

Janabis

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 1,753

OP, I started 2008 with a run a bit like this. It got so frustrating I made a post about it too:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...354&highlight=

The bad luck peaked with me being down $20,000 in equity at a mix of NL200 and NL400, roughly around -66 buyins in equity. It took me about 6 months and 90k hands of being completely unmotivated/demoralized, but I finally started making money again in June. I think runs like these are once-in-a-lifetime occurances for most people, but they do happen.

A vacation can really help, I travelled for about a month without going near a poker table and felt better when I got back.

Quote

07-30-2008 , 11:04 PM

#336

lennie257

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 5,371

if i was rich, i would ship OP like 10k, because this is some of the most brutal **** i've ever seen.

Quote

07-31-2008 , 12:26 AM

#337

iltw555

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 524

Quote:

Originally Posted by lennie257

if i was rich, i would ship OP like 10k, because this is some of the most brutal **** i've ever seen.

ship me some too? I am down 132 BI buyin this year

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...d.php?t=263422

Quote

07-31-2008 , 12:40 AM

#338

LetMeLive

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 25,131

Quote:

Originally Posted by lennie257

if i was rich, i would ship OP like 10k, because this is some of the most brutal **** i've ever seen.

lol @ giving ppl money becuz u pity them

Quote

07-31-2008 , 04:47 AM

#339

Imaginary F(r)iend

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 3,197

Seriously, enough of this self-pity crap. Check how Pokerev works and it doesn't work correctly for your site. Running that bad is statistically and practically impossible. So please, recheck your database, check PokerEV forums and you might notice that you aren't that unlucky. Also, I can't believe that anyone else isn't noticing this. 300 k hands, running all-ins that bad= impossible.

I'm just trying to help you here. You're NOT running that bad.

and lol at that nobody else is noticing this...

[ ] BBV rules at maths
[ ] BBV rules at using and analysing beta software output

Last edited by Imaginary F(r)iend; 07-31-2008 at 04:54 AM.

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07-31-2008 , 05:58 AM

#340

Imaginary F(r)iend

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 3,197

ahh fk it

Last edited by Imaginary F(r)iend; 07-31-2008 at 06:12 AM.

Quote

07-31-2008 , 06:03 AM

#341

FoldEqu1ty

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 5,747

Quote:

Originally Posted by Imaginary F(r)iend

Example how PokerEv all in luckgraphs do not work here:

100 BB stacks

Hero SB AK
Villain BB QQ

Hero goes all-in, Villain calls and villain wins. Pokerev does not calculate this hand since it doesn't see callers hand. Therefore Pokerev shows now 0 luck.

What the **** are you on man???

Mucked cards are shown at showdown -----> therefore all all-in's are included in all-in luck calculation

Also WTF at this being impossible? So out of all the hundreds of millions of hands from all the poker players in 2p2 no-one's going to have a 1-in-a-million bad stretch?

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07-31-2008 , 06:14 AM

#342

Imaginary F(r)iend

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 3,197

Meh

So this is all Full Tilt? No Micro, Pacific, Ongame etc. in it? I'm not sure about party.. If there is any, this graph is fked.

All I'm saying is that you shouldn't trust PokerEV calculations that much.

Last edited by Imaginary F(r)iend; 07-31-2008 at 06:19 AM.

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07-31-2008 , 08:07 AM

#343

[Phill]

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 52,717

Quote:

Originally Posted by Imaginary F(r)iend

I suggested he did something wrong around late page 1, early page 2. If it has taken another 200+ posts for him to realise pokerev doesnt work at the site he plays then we should use a modified version of what that other guy said and ship 10k to a hitman.

That said, it seems to be all ftp, which means its accurate (within the confines that pokerev is a pretty inaccurate way to measure luck overall), which means it sucks.

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07-31-2008 , 08:38 AM

#344

Thois

adept

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 935

Wow, remind me to never ever play at FT

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07-31-2008 , 01:11 PM

#345

sluggger5x

John Connor of poker

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 5,592

Quote:

Originally Posted by Imaginary F(r)iend

You know, I wouldn't wish this run on anybody, especially winning players. But someone who is this ignorant probably deserves it.

Quote

07-31-2008 , 01:49 PM

#346

Vantek

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 5,806

lol I think his world will collapse the day he realises this is actualy possible

Quote

07-31-2008 , 08:27 PM

#347

sluggger5x

John Connor of poker

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 5,592

I'm going to flip a coin 100 times and take heads every time. results to follow...

Quote

07-31-2008 , 08:35 PM

#348

fozzy71

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 38,192

Quote:

Originally Posted by sluggger5x

I'm going to flip a coin 100 times and take heads every time. results to follow...

Quote

07-31-2008 , 09:20 PM

#349

sluggger5x

John Connor of poker

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 5,592

54 heads 46 tails. Does this mean i will run good or bad at teh pokerz?

Quote

07-31-2008 , 10:20 PM

#350

leprous_hand

unclean

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 16,249

i keep waiting for op to upswing... i would would be straight up busto if i was in your shoes...

this can't go on.....can it?

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