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Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance Here's where you put your whines and wins.

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Old 07-30-2008, 03:34 PM   #326
Vantek
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
7,093bb(bb won)-15,717bb(equity adjusted) = -8,624bb (below expectiation)
What does this mean.
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Old 07-30-2008, 03:37 PM   #327
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vantek View Post
What does this mean.
-8,624bb (below expectiation)

It means he is unlucky when he goes all in, to the tune of -86 buy ins.
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Old 07-30-2008, 03:38 PM   #328
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Re: 08 so far...

I mean -15,717bb(equity adjusted)

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Old 07-30-2008, 03:44 PM   #329
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Re: 08 so far...

Maybe RNG is rigged ? lol
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Old 07-30-2008, 03:49 PM   #330
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vantek View Post
I mean -15,717bb(equity adjusted)

That is what he would have won, if he had ran AT expectation, and not been unlucky. The 'below expectation' is the difference between what he should have won and actually won.
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Old 07-30-2008, 07:25 PM   #331
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Re: 08 so far...

[x] Sympathy
[ ] Pray for OP
[x] Atheist
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Old 07-30-2008, 07:31 PM   #332
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Re: 08 so far...

this is a great example of that mathematical thingy where you have multiple starting points and add +1 or -1 to each one every turn and eventually they are all spread out ?.?
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Old 07-30-2008, 07:36 PM   #333
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Re: 08 so far...

this is brutal, keep your head in the game, bro
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Old 07-30-2008, 08:05 PM   #334
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Re: 08 so far...

maybe you should check-raise more
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Old 07-30-2008, 09:23 PM   #335
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Re: 08 so far...

OP, I started 2008 with a run a bit like this. It got so frustrating I made a post about it too:

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...354&highlight=

The bad luck peaked with me being down $20,000 in equity at a mix of NL200 and NL400, roughly around -66 buyins in equity. It took me about 6 months and 90k hands of being completely unmotivated/demoralized, but I finally started making money again in June. I think runs like these are once-in-a-lifetime occurances for most people, but they do happen.

A vacation can really help, I travelled for about a month without going near a poker table and felt better when I got back.
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Old 07-30-2008, 11:04 PM   #336
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Re: 08 so far...

if i was rich, i would ship OP like 10k, because this is some of the most brutal **** i've ever seen.
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Old 07-31-2008, 12:26 AM   #337
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by lennie257 View Post
if i was rich, i would ship OP like 10k, because this is some of the most brutal **** i've ever seen.
ship me some too? I am down 132 BI buyin this year

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...d.php?t=263422
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Old 07-31-2008, 12:40 AM   #338
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by lennie257 View Post
if i was rich, i would ship OP like 10k, because this is some of the most brutal **** i've ever seen.
lol @ giving ppl money becuz u pity them
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Old 07-31-2008, 04:47 AM   #339
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Re: 08 so far...

Seriously, enough of this self-pity crap. Check how Pokerev works and it doesn't work correctly for your site. Running that bad is statistically and practically impossible. So please, recheck your database, check PokerEV forums and you might notice that you aren't that unlucky. Also, I can't believe that anyone else isn't noticing this. 300 k hands, running all-ins that bad= impossible.

I'm just trying to help you here. You're NOT running that bad.

and lol at that nobody else is noticing this...

[ ] BBV rules at maths
[ ] BBV rules at using and analysing beta software output

Last edited by Imaginary F(r)iend; 07-31-2008 at 04:54 AM.
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Old 07-31-2008, 05:58 AM   #340
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Re: 08 so far...

ahh fk it

Last edited by Imaginary F(r)iend; 07-31-2008 at 06:12 AM.
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Old 07-31-2008, 06:03 AM   #341
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Imaginary F(r)iend View Post
Example how PokerEv all in luckgraphs do not work here:

100 BB stacks

Hero SB AK
Villain BB QQ

Hero goes all-in, Villain calls and villain wins. Pokerev does not calculate this hand since it doesn't see callers hand. Therefore Pokerev shows now 0 luck.
What the **** are you on man???

Mucked cards are shown at showdown -----> therefore all all-in's are included in all-in luck calculation

Also WTF at this being impossible? So out of all the hundreds of millions of hands from all the poker players in 2p2 no-one's going to have a 1-in-a-million bad stretch?
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Old 07-31-2008, 06:14 AM   #342
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Re: 08 so far...

Meh

So this is all Full Tilt? No Micro, Pacific, Ongame etc. in it? I'm not sure about party.. If there is any, this graph is fked.

All I'm saying is that you shouldn't trust PokerEV calculations that much.

Last edited by Imaginary F(r)iend; 07-31-2008 at 06:19 AM.
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Old 07-31-2008, 08:07 AM   #343
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Imaginary F(r)iend View Post
Meh

So this is all Full Tilt? No Micro, Pacific, Ongame etc. in it? I'm not sure about party.. If there is any, this graph is fked.

All I'm saying is that you shouldn't trust PokerEV calculations that much.
I suggested he did something wrong around late page 1, early page 2. If it has taken another 200+ posts for him to realise pokerev doesnt work at the site he plays then we should use a modified version of what that other guy said and ship 10k to a hitman.

That said, it seems to be all ftp, which means its accurate (within the confines that pokerev is a pretty inaccurate way to measure luck overall), which means it sucks.
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Old 07-31-2008, 08:38 AM   #344
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Re: 08 so far...

Wow, remind me to never ever play at FT
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Old 07-31-2008, 01:11 PM   #345
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Imaginary F(r)iend View Post
Seriously, enough of this self-pity crap. Check how Pokerev works and it doesn't work correctly for your site. Running that bad is statistically and practically impossible. So please, recheck your database, check PokerEV forums and you might notice that you aren't that unlucky. Also, I can't believe that anyone else isn't noticing this. 300 k hands, running all-ins that bad= impossible.

I'm just trying to help you here. You're NOT running that bad.

and lol at that nobody else is noticing this...

[ ] BBV rules at maths
[ ] BBV rules at using and analysing beta software output
You know, I wouldn't wish this run on anybody, especially winning players. But someone who is this ignorant probably deserves it.
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Old 07-31-2008, 01:49 PM   #346
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Re: 08 so far...

lol I think his world will collapse the day he realises this is actualy possible
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Old 07-31-2008, 08:27 PM   #347
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Re: 08 so far...

I'm going to flip a coin 100 times and take heads every time. results to follow...
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Old 07-31-2008, 08:35 PM   #348
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Re: 08 so far...

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Originally Posted by sluggger5x View Post
I'm going to flip a coin 100 times and take heads every time. results to follow...
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Old 07-31-2008, 09:20 PM   #349
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Re: 08 so far...

54 heads 46 tails. Does this mean i will run good or bad at teh pokerz?
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Old 07-31-2008, 10:20 PM   #350
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Re: 08 so far...

i keep waiting for op to upswing... i would would be straight up busto if i was in your shoes...


this can't go on.....can it?
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