Quote:
Originally Posted by AlanBostick
You WANT to play AKo to maximize equity, not win pots. Which is better, playing AKo versus a tight early raiser and one optimist for three bets or versus that same tight early raiser and four optimists for two bets each?
Sorry, I should have addressed this specific situation. I used a 15% raiser and not a tight raiser. Let's look at the situation again against a tight opener with a range: 99+, AQ, AJs, KQs
Our equity against this guy is 50.39%. I think we want to fight it out with him for the dead blind money. We three bet, blinds fold, we have 50.39% equity in the 7.5 bet pot=3.78 bets. We are profitable to the tune of .78 small bets in equity.
Let's look at the situation with four "optimists". We'll call the optimists 25% ranges, and say that the blinds will be optimistic in the big pot that the can enter cheaply. They will each play 90% ranges. So we have to cold callers with 25% ranges and the two blinds with 90% ranges, ourselves with AKo, and the tight early raiser.
Early raiser=24%
AKo=17%
cold caller 1=15.5%
cold caller 2=15.5%
sb=14%
bb= 14%
We have 17% equity in a 12 bet pot... just about break even. AKo is simply not a very strong multi-way hand.
When we three bet and play heads up we are essentially coin tossing with another strong hand with dead blind money as an overlay... a fantastic prospect.
Just for the sake of curiosity, I did the same exercise with us holding AA against all the same players and ranges. In the 12 bet pot we now have 47% equity. This is a profit of 5.64 sb of equity for cold calling and letting the weak hands in.
When we isolate we have 83.8% equity in the 7.5 bet pot, a profit of 3.28 small bets. So, yes, AA is strong enough to allow weak hands in without suffering.
For other hands:
KK, 69% equity when isolating for a profit of 2.175 sb, vs 36.3% equity in the 12 bet pot, for a profit of 2.356. So KK comes out marginally better letting the fish in, but at the cost of much higher variance.
QQ, 59% equity when isolating for profit of 1.425 small bets, 28% in 12 bet pot for a profit of 1.36 small bets. QQ prefers to isolate.
So only AA and KK have a strong enough equity edge vs typical loose callers to prefer them in over the alternative of playing heads up with dead blind money. QQ does better by isolating, and with AK it is no contest.
Last edited by emerson; 11-05-2009 at 10:45 PM.