Bay 101 40. My second hand at the table, and I recognize almost no one, which is incredibly rare. No reads on anyone relevant. There's a new player who's posted between the SB and button.

UTG folds, 5 limpers, new player checks, I raise KT from the small blind, BB folds, 4 calls, button limp-reraises. Button's an older Asian guy, make of that what you will. New player folds, I cap, everyone calls. 6 ways to the flop for 26 SB. (Maybe 28 SB - it's possible UTG limped, called one raise, and then folded to the cap. I don't remember, but I know it was 6 ways to the flop.)

Flop QJ2 I bet, first limper folds, 4 callers.
Turn Q Checks around.
River K I bet, intending to not fold if it ends up HU.

I discussed this with a couple of good players and got some different viewpoints on various streets. Thoughts on all streets? I kind of feel like the closest decisions are the river bet, the turn check, and the preflop cap, in that order, but I wouldn't be surprised to see people disagree.

This is a gigantic pot, so I would bet the turn to give some of the limpers an opportunity to make a bad fold.

i like all of it.

pj, what hands do we hope to fold with a turn bet? i see that the pot is giant so any fold is a good fold, but we have K-high. all our straight outs are to the nut straight. we have no pair outs to clean up as AK and AT are never folding their broadway draws. s aren't folding. Jx isn't folding much, but not only does it have to fold but we have to spike a T and win. ok KJ is a hand that we'd like to get rid of that might fold.

i think a free card -- or at least not paying an extra bet to draw -- is more valuable.

just to be clear to bet the turn is to commit to a double barrel bluff. it has nothing to do with cleaning up outs or protecting your hand or trying to successfully show down KT high.

on the turn the pot is about 15.5 big bets and if hero fires the turn he is committed to firing the river as well. so depending on how many callers you get on your turn bet you could be getting about 8.5-1 on a double barrel on the turn/river. 8.5-1 is very generous however because a queen constitutes so much of the 4 callers range here that you are going to be facing a raise a very good% of the time. when that happens you will still pay the two big bets, but both on the turn and none on the river as you now have zero FE and must hit to win. on top of that you still have to fade the draws as well as there is a flush draw and straight draws out. so even if you successfully get a Jack or ace-high to fold you may get rivered by a straight or flush anyways.

basically a double barrel here would be to get out a Jack, ace-high flush draws and the occasional other KT to fold on the river. given how much strength hero has shown so far in the hand you would think that they would fold a jack to that last barrel, but you never really know live. i've seen some people make ridiculously tight folds and i've seen others make super light call downs.

without running through the math (paging GoT), i'm going to say the parlay of Queens and river suckouts and that hero's FE is probably going to be overstated, double barreling the turn-river at that price is probably not the best option.

You have a marginal hand out of position to start, check pre-flop do not raise.
Check-call one bet on the flop (but fold if it's more).

You have a hand that will usually be worthless on the river. In the cases where it is not worthless, it will usually be a second best straight.

This is not a good investment. Stick around only if it's very cheap, and don't lead on any street into this 6-handed field.

Well played, imo. I think it's important to consider double barreling turn and river, but in my experience no one ever folds a pair in a pot this size.

btw, this is one of those hands where things seem extreme and out of hand, but you applied all the concepts correctly so gogoogog!

Also, your thread title is deceiving - I would cringe at all of my decisions in this hand.

BTW, i love playing hands like this when all the TAGfish and nit props see that ZOMG U CAPPED KTs OOP!

i hate building a huge pot out of position with that hand. i like it on the button because you can take a free card when you miss.

the rest of the hand plays itself doesn't it? river is an easy muck to a raise.

ban for weak tight disease

just calling pf = lol
not leading flop = lol
folding for 2 bets on the flop = extreme lol

I like the way this hand was played until the river... I'm unsure what's best on the river.

With this many people in preflop, raising the first time around for value is pretty standard imo. Capping after button's limp-raise is an option, and I'd probably go for it. Button will not have a premium hand very often after over-limping in position.

Flop is easy. I like the post from CDC about the turn play. That sums it up pretty well.

As for the river play, we should be able to rule out Qx pretty conclusively. However, there are many many straights and flushes that just got there, so I'm not sure if there is quite enough value in a bet. I wouldn't be able to find a fold in such a big pot if raised either. On the plus side, since this is live ppl are somewhat likely to just call with straights and possibly just call with flushes as well due to the paired board. Nevertheless, I think check/see what happens/prob call is the best river play.

I don't see how not raising K10s OOP is a bad decision. I don't raise KJs either.

lol at second best straight though.

I think not raising any two suited broadway in a limped family pot with extra dead money is pretty horrible and I'd be surprised if anyone can show me numbers to convince me otherwise. I do think the preflop cap is much closer.

As for second best straights, I generally don't make many of those with KT.

The disease seems to be spreading rapidly. I am not sure I am opposed to it. Certainly makes my life easier.

Too bad everyone folded to my river bet, so they'll never know unless they read it here. A few guys seemed to think I must have had KK. One of them specifically asked me "two black kings?", so I showed him my red king for the hell of it.

I like this post a lot, but one minor nit - it was pointed out to me that a lot of players will peel the flop with the naked A:diamond or K, and it's actually worth a little bit for me to make naked K's fold on the turn so I don't have to chop with them if I spike a K on the river and it's good. (Obviously a pretty unlikely parlay, but still something).

It was also pointed out to me (and not just within this thread) that some folks will fold things like KT or even flush draws for two bets on the turn, so maybe there actually are some outs to clean up. Just because I would never fold either of those hands for two doesn't mean none of the opponents would. Still, I wouldn't care to count on it from unknowns.

Also, I think no one ever folds a J on the river unless something super scary comes. I sort of doubt any pair folds, when I bluff the river, unless I hit another good parlay of having the pairs acting right after me and the draws acting last.

So these are a couple of the factors that point to a bet on the turn, but I still don't think it's enough.

This is results oriented thinking, but it is the reason I do not really like your river bet. I think if you get called you will chop or lose way more than 50% of the time. Any other Kx has a crying call (that everyone makes of course), and Jx has a very difficult time calling. even the most stationy live donk will have to think hard about paying off with that.