Quote:
Originally Posted by TylerMes
only if the board comes a 4 card flush and you triple barrel. i don't think you have any reasonable chance of folding anything i would classify as a 'weak made hand' otherwise.
basically the idea of my post was if you are nearly always double barreling, except perhaps a few combos of no hand/no draw where you just choose to give up, you can be value check/raised with near impunity. basically you are just a barrel monkey and any observant opponent could value raise really light and get to showdown really light profitably and probably profitably bluff fairly frequently. if you aren't particularly bluffable in this spot then you have to be showdowning really light because a nontrivial portion of your range is high card with a single spade and similar hands with little showdown value.
this is the kind of stuff that if someone smart picks up on it, you get destroyed because you are essentially blindly barreling and your opponent will be getting in an extra bet a lot when he has the better hand, will fold when he is behind, will win virtually every pot you check behind, and probably still bluff you on occasion.
so yea betting red AK is fine if you have some kind of balance. i rather use it to strengthen my check behind range, its also a hand that has a lot of outs but its value becomes really nebulous once raised. i also like checking behind a lot of non showdownable single spades bc its sucks to get raised w them and betting commits you to triple barreling UI imo and i don't want it to be reasonable for a bricked KJ to call down UI
i'm just not too concerned about balance when i'm valuebetting, which is what i am doing with red AK on the turn. As a corollary if i have AA and play pf strongly and then bet out on the flop it's pretty obvious i have a strong hand but i'm not gonna start checking for balance purposes. now course
it's not like we hold AA here, but i think the principle at play is the same. if we have a hand that is worth a value bet we should do just that. make our hand a little weaker and i could definitely see an argument for checking the turn, but AK is just a strong hand in our range.
i really think the value check is overused. you say that barreling off is easily exploitable, i think the value check is much more exploitable. any decent player is going to see that you are making a defensive play and wish to showdown, and they will be able to play perfectly against you as a result. i would rather just bet and take a free showdown if he calls. i do agree that it is a good play vs inducable opponents who are likely to fire air on the river, but imo these guys are found predominantly OL, and the dude in the OP certainly doesn't fit the description.
barrelling off can be exploited too of course. the adjustment that you mentioned would be for villain to delay his raise until the turn, getting us to fire the turn first. my beef is that i doubt villain in this hand is capable of making this adjustment. given the mubsiness of live players he probably won't delay his raises with Qx/Tx/PP, especially given that the turn brought a card that paired the board and completed a flush. he would probably put us on quads and just calldown (jk). but i dunno this is just based on how i've been told "taggy regs" in these games play. i'm of course assuming he's a nitty tag who isn't a freqent contributor to these forums (correct me if i'm wrong).
but of the two strategies i think it's more difficult from opponent's POV to deal with a guy who double barrels more frequently vs less frequently. he's gonna be kept guessing as to whether we are weak or strong, and his biggest adjustment imo will be to call us down lighter hoping to catch our bluffs, not to value raise us lighter on the turn. getting him to go passive is of course ideal for us since we're going to want to vbet him real thin without getting shown resistance.