7-handed 30-60 game. One of the two spots, a bad-but-crafty LAG, is lobbying. The other spot is a bad LAG who isn't crafty at all, the villain in this hand. The other players range from ABC nits to decent players, and I'm thinking of going home.

Villain is UTG, opens for two bets. Folded to me, I've got QQ in MP and reraise. Everyone else folds, villain calls.

Flop: A T 6 rainbow.

Checked to me, I bet, villain calls.

Turn: A T 6 T

Villain checks. I figure I'm WA/WB and check behind. (Good or bad?)

River: A T 6 T A

UTG checks. Now the only thing the villain can call with that I beat is JJ, maybe K-high. I check behind.

bad LAG but checks to you 3 times? i bet turn AND river.

It's because he's a bad LAG that I check the turn and river.

Checking turn is good, river is extremely player dependent. I doubt given villain's description that you are getting a K high call enough to justify a bet. Not that they wouldnt call with K high, but there is a significant parlay between him not having an A or a T, him having an underpair that peeled, and him paying off with KQ or KJ.

wait, what?

either he has KQ/KJ or he doesn't. Where does the parlay come into play?

I don't think I'd bet the river.

Bad wording, but in this game people are dumb enough to fold K high in this spot.

I'd fold K high against Alan's river bet here...

Y I prob would too, but I wouldnt call the turn with a gs either.

I'll defer to you, Mitch, and Boc, but I guess I took Alan describing villain as "isn't crafty at all" to mean villain wouldn't likely play an Ace like this, especially on the river.

Plus I feel like more players with this description in these stakes peel with a broadway draw OR an inferior pocket pair enough to make me want to bet the turn.

But what do I know...

I don't really know anything about anything either, but my plan on the turn would be

with KK: Check
with JJ: Bet
with QQ: Flip a coin

Especially since villain "isn't crafty", I wouldn't mind b/fing the turn.


If I bet the turn and was called I'd never bet the river. If I checked the turn, the river was a brick, and villain checked to me, I would most likely check back.

i know less than you.

and with AA: check, because i mean, we're trapping amirite?? just checkin.

Turn is super-easy check behind, completely by-the-book play. I suppose an argument can be made for b/f the river, but there are way too few hands you are getting any value on the river so I prefer check behind.

Why?

You are WA/WB. If the villain has an Ace, he is not folding. If the villain has a T he just made trips and not folding. If the villain is behind there are VERY few hands he is calling with. And if we are C/R we have to fold, which I generally dislike doing vs. LAGs.

Why the difference between these three hands? They look to me to be essentially the same hand: "unimproved pocket pair that cannot be counterfeited." Yes, KK beats JJ and QQ, and JJ is beat by KK and QQ. But (a) there are all these other as-yet-uncounterfeited pocket pairs, plus draws, that we beat; and (b) preflop action leads me to discount the villain having a big hand -- he might have called with AK, but he definitely would have capped with AA-TT.

My sense of the hand and the villain is that if my hand isn't good, it's beat by AX or TX (or maybe 66); and that if the villain doesn't have one of these, my hand is good. KK, QQ, and JJ, given this sense, are essentially the same hand.

ETA: I'm not saying boc4life is wrong here. I'm genuinely interested in the reasoning behind "check KK, bet/fold JJ, and QQ is a coin-toss," and am laying out why it confuses me.

Agree w/ boc that bet/folding turn is prob best in that game. Almost no one I can think of there that could raise you w/ a worse hand.

The reason to lean more towards a check w/ KK vs. QQ/JJ is that the broadway gutshots have less outs against you. i.e villain peels flop w/ KQ or KJ, and he can still make a pair to beat you. when you hold KK he only has the gutter.

As played, I prob check river, but depends who it is and history/metagame with them, against some it's an easy vbet. One argument for a bet is that you shouldn't ever have a boat when you check turn, so he *should* be freely betting any underfull on the river. If he's not crafty, then he's unlikely going for a river c/r and there is a decent chance you get a call from a worse hand.

Ding! You're absolutely right, and I completely missed that.

I'm pretty sure I bet/fold the turn against most players but perhaps not against a crafty lag. I mean, can't he have pocket pictures a ton here, or get obstinant with a small pair? Isn't that what bad players do?