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oaks 15/30: ceteris paribus oaks 15/30: ceteris paribus

06-18-2010 , 10:36 PM
i raise 77 no clubs UTG+1 in a 7 handed game. a loose passivey guy who has a fu manchu mustache and loves to coldcall 3bets me OTB. i think his range is like AQo+, AJs+, 99-TT+. blinds fold i call.

flop 883. i check he bets i c/r. i do this for two related reasons:
1) he percieves me as bluffy and i think he will call down with ace high if i c/r, but will check behind the turn and river UI.
2) he is the type of player who will not 3bet without an 8 here, so i think i lose only a SB more if he has a better hand and extract .5-2.5 BB more when he doesn't.
oaks 15/30: ceteris paribus Quote
06-18-2010 , 11:02 PM
what if he

1) threebets the flop and bets blank turns
2) calls and raises a brick turn
3) calls and raises a broadway turn
oaks 15/30: ceteris paribus Quote
06-18-2010 , 11:02 PM
1) calldown if no clubs although i think this is outrageously unlikely
2) snap fold
3) snap fold

dude is straightforward, dont think hes going to do anything remotely animal once i c/r this flop.
oaks 15/30: ceteris paribus Quote
06-19-2010 , 02:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by asmitty
1) calldown if no clubs although i think this is outrageously unlikely
2) snap fold
3) snap fold

dude is straightforward, dont think hes going to do anything remotely animal once i c/r this flop.
NH...what else can we even consider? This isn't an online game where guys barrel (and have) ten high.
oaks 15/30: ceteris paribus Quote
06-19-2010 , 10:17 AM
Hell I c/r this online even.
oaks 15/30: ceteris paribus Quote
06-20-2010 , 12:48 PM
Do you bet the whole way if we get no more resistance?
oaks 15/30: ceteris paribus Quote
06-20-2010 , 01:06 PM
I wouldn't be surprised to see him double barrel Ak on this board if a blank comes on the turn, so you get just as much value from that.
If I was gonna go nuts with 77 on this board I'd rather just 4 bet it pre and go from there. I usually c/c in these spots. Helps merge your c/c range when you just have like J10ss. I wouldn't be c/ring much on this board, since it is unlikely he will be folding.
oaks 15/30: ceteris paribus Quote

      
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