FW 40 rare game that has gone through night. I open button w AhJh and villain defends bb. Villain should be very well known to many posters here who play 40+ in northeast, L.A., and bigger lhe and mix games online. His reputation is "sparkling". I have limited hrs with him but what i've seen is strong thinking LAG. hes played all night, crushed all comers for the last 2 hrs, and has racked up and ready to leave at next push. a

In the past, he's told me he respects my play (and i believe him, ldo). One hand of note this session is i 3b KQ pf, bet flop and kr turn out of tempo, perhaps too quickly, on KQ67dd or somesuch. he snap folds the 4d river with a "this.game.is.so.dum" look. Fwiw.

Flop is KsJc6s. kbc. 3.25BB.

Turn 9d. kbr...

What's my plan? appreciate your thoughts on what you/he might play this way.

i can't imagine folding ever or raising again unimproved without a stronger read.

Call down.

I concur

I really don't know what else to do, you are getting ~3:1 on a call down. Surely the combination of your hand improving, him having semi-bluffs, and him sometime sc/r weaker hands for value is enough to justify this.

I've never played the 40, but you give a lot of feedback on these boards so I thought I'd chime in.

I'd check raise the turn with something like:

99, J9(no spade), 96, and some Qxss and Txss seemingly at random and based on gameflow.

I agree with others that you should call down.

Okay, maybe not the most interesting spot. But I think there's some rivers I could fold and I don't know whether those are close or not.



Bob, if I were playing against you I should pretty clearly fold a spade river that's not an A or J. Agree?

Yes that occured to me as well. Perhaps I need some naked Qx, Tx, or AQ in my bluffing range, but I left those out because my proposed value range is pretty tiny.

I only have 27 value combos and no calculator handy, but I'm guessing we should have <10 bluffs here: so if we bluff T8ss, T7ss, Q8ss, Q7ss, Q5ss-Q2ss and just a couple random airballs to keep us from being 100% value based on wet rivers then we'll be on the right track.

Folding is ridiculous, raising is spew, so I like a call down. Would probably fold a spade river, however.

Putting him on a range seems interesting. Without much history i would think most people in bb's spot would c/r all Kx, spade draws, QT, possibly gutshots Q9/T9 and other backdoor fd's. That leaves c/c to be Jx, 6x, pp's, and some good Ax's.

If so, then his turn c/r would probably consist of made hands like QT, J9, 96s, 99, which leaves the question of which hands that c/c the flop he should turn into a semibluff. On this turn texture, a semibluff with something like Q9 would often commit 3 big bets to bluff since you have many hands that can at least call the turn. But if he's not semibluffing/bluffing anything, then you can technically *gasp* b/f AJ.

I agree with others b/c down AJ is the right play, but then what adjustments should he make to force you to calldown AJ and weaker hands? Maybe this is why some ppl in bb's spot choose to c/c c/r with hands like KQ and spade draws, even though the flop is not really 'peelable' texture.

^^^ Very nice post. I came up with 8c7c, Tc7c, and 7c5c as somewhat reasonable flop peels that could bluff the turn and that I still beat. Given what happened next, this may be enough.

I called and rivered a 9s and folded to his bet. As I look at it now, my takeaway is that while the spades got there, we assume he should have relatively few spade draws in this line and most of the turned value hands get relatively reduced with the 9 on the river. And if he's willing to raise a turned T9, why not a JT, at which point he has plenty of hands I beat. Whether he bets this river with JT is certainly a question but, again, it wouldn't take much.

In sum, his value range is relatively narrow, something on the order of 2-3 bluff combos are going to give me call equity on this river, and gaining info, I'm unbluffable, yada yada.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

27 trials (Exhaustive)

board: KJ699

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AhJh	11.11%	3	0
99, J9, Q9, 9x6x, T9, qs8s, 8c7c,Tc7c, 7c5c	88.89%	24	0

I think peeling the flop with 75cc and check raising the turn with Q9 and T9 are bad plays. I'd much rather check raise the flop with 75cc than peel. I'd much rather call the turn with Q9 and T9 without a read that you're folding AJ or betting the turn and calling down with worse on a regular basis, which I think is dubious on this board. What am I missing?

A strong thinking Lag isn't playing this straight forward on the flop.