iluv-> given the bb in the hand, you can't fold T8o. even if the bb was a bit of a stronger player, i'd still raise T8 in the CO w/ strong lagtag on the btn.
jdr-> i thought about posting this as it shows a great deal how i think, and i normally don't post things that either a) i've put a ton of work into, or b) show precisely how i think about a relatively common spot that i will end up repeating relatively often w/ the people that i play with that read here. but then again, that's a very small %, and even if they do read it, it probably wouldn't change how they play against me.
first, that turn + river are almost the two worst cards for you in this spot. i'd say 66/77 were a decent part of his cd range that, on the flop, you'd expect to get value from (along w/ possibly A5). he probably calls down some Ahighs but not nearly enough, and def not w/ that runout, to bet the river for value, so good no bet.
the problem i have is this:
the way you played your hand looks...precisely like what you should have.
and similarly, the way he's played his hand, makes it look precisely like what he "should have" (A8, 99-JJish -maybe QQ). the more agro lines like b/c then raise turn line (or 3bflop) i'd expect him to have been balancing between his kings+ (and the wait til river to raise line not to be used w/ this specific board, so very small % there, if any, depending on how aware he thinks you are - i.e. whether you'd notice that he does his balancing taking all boards into acct or uses boards to balance %s of overall lines). so the TP bucket probably isn't using this type of board to 'wait til the river to raise.' this slightly helps you in your river betting frequency and in his relative distribution of hands vs. what you hold here.
aside from that, and relative to my first point, i'm usually quite suspicious of hands that look like precisely what they "should be" given the play when i have precisely what it looks like i should have (pair< K or draw).
so, my first q is what has btn seen from you on the river? have you k/r'd in this spot before (and i'm not asking if you do it w/ a balanced range, just has he seen you do it whether the hand was shown down or not)? if you don't (or rather you haven't been seen by the villain at all ever doing this - so the actions he's seen from you on the river have been just bets or k/cs), you have to call more often here.
if you have k/r'd in this spot, i'd be more likely to k/f.
i also just reread the op and this:
Quote:
Has seen me get out of line quite a bit tonight
usually implies you've been doing the betting/raising and not calling out of line. so had this been a nondiamond river, you should be generally valuebetting some more to take advantage of the (few) times he'll curiosity call down w/ the flush Ahigh.
ignoring that, have you c/f'd other rivers?
i.e. what is he doing w/ nonflush AQ/J/T in this spot? is he tossing them on the turn? which brings up another problem i have is that in his mind, you may have an over played/out of line mid-high Ahigh. when i see people get too agro with their Ahighs (which might have been done earlier), i know i upgrade the top of that range into more of the value cd or value bet group rather than release on the flop or turn.
this means you should be c/c'ing here more frequently than you'd otherwise want (because he may be value betting against your, ostensibly weaker, Ahigh). given the board though, this is a minor thing. but it is something to consider
further, his expanded pf range, given that you've been in a race to the bottom to play against the bb, means that HE'LL be in more awkward positions (Though in position here and he'd probably ditch the bottom of that new lower range on the flop or turn most often). buuuut, that also means that there are some hands that HE'LL misplay or take too far or get out of line with. i rarely see this discussed, but if you are in that type of dynamic, in some spots, your calling has to increase, and in some spots, you have to call less (not many people i've ever played with do this part properly).
when playing against solid players in that spot, he may make a misread that causes a misplay. it's very much more expensive to over-fold than to over-call in spots like that since the range you give him has to include "and some things i probably haven't considered/thought about".
so in addition to that, the things that tilt this river one way or another are precisely on display in this hand/general spot. so imo, you could have told me that you k/c'd or that you k/f'd (and you can probably even sell me a k/r) and w/ the right dynamic and overall & recent history, i'd say 'nh.'
i could just as easily say "wow, that's a terrible decision" w/ the same action lol.
FINALLY-> is there any chance HE'S folding <K >8 here? b/c those cards that were bad for you are also VERY bad for him (you could have made 2pr, straight, flush very easily given the play of the hand). i'm assuming there's basically no shot he's folding 99/TT+ here so i've ignored the betting aspect. if there is some chance, or if he'd go to the wrong level (he knows i've seen him get out of line so that means he'd expect me to show up w/ the goods more now etc.), then betting becomes mandatory.
so in a vacuum, and assuming you won't ever get him to fold better, easy fold. not in a vacuum-> need more info about your relationship/play history vs. a "strong lagtag pro"
PS - these types of hands are ones that i enjoy most at the table. ofc i'm sure i've messed some hands all up lol. but overall, these are great fun. and nothing wrong w/ taking the "standard" line here, which is what i think you did.
Last edited by UpHillBothWays; 05-31-2015 at 10:37 PM.