Weekend 20

Villain is this hand will know exactly who he is when he sees this hand (and can feel free to out himself). One of the best players I've come across at both OL and live. I suspect he's willing to raise this particular limper very wide and can do so profitably with a variety of hands (as this limper is very straightforward post). He has solid frequencies of value and bluffing, doesn't miss value, and is almost certainly aware that I'm quite payoff-y at the river, but in one of those "I know he knows I know that" ways. I suspect he'd check back a variety of hands on this board, like some gutters w/ not much else equity (like a J8s/J9s w/ no BDFD), bad A-hi, whiffed overs. Not sure if he'd consider checking back a stronger than normal hand. This is all more relevant towards what he is betting post.

Limper is your standard loose, ABC live 20 player and isn't particularly relevant to the hand (besides his presence allowing me to ascribe a somewhat wide range to vil).

I have 87 BB

Action:

MP limps, villain raises CO, I call BB, MP calls.

Flop (6.5 sb): T75

Checks to CO who bets, I check raise, CO calls

Turn (5.25 bb): A

I check, CO bets, I call

River (7.25 bb): T

I check, CO bets, I tank call

maybe c/c flop, c/f turn?

Maybe, though FWIW x/r a hand like this middle pair where the top card contains my BDFD is something I like to do for value / "protection" against the other player in the hand. Not to mention I also have a bunch of turn cards that give me a straight draw, which is also nice. I think once I've check raised the flop, check folding the turn is kind of out of the question, but I can be convinced otherwise perhaps.

based on a read that leads to c/r'ing flop, yeah call down. against someone good tho, i still fold turn and river regardless of how i played flop. edit: call turn and fold river

Every draw miss , u have to call down .

About the c/r flop tho I am not too sure it is great .
What hands left you have for peeling the flop that is strong enough to c/c down ( regardless the turn here )?.

That is absurdly simplistic and doesn't take into account the density of villain's value range (nor the fact that we've the 8c in our hands, which significantly reduces bluff combos as many of villain's bluffs with have an 8 in it).

i prob default to b/c turn

Looks good

-At least consider 3b'ing PF.
-Flop x'r is practically mandatory.
-River I call and don't lose sleep over it.
-Turn could go either way; depends how thin he would value raise. Some Vils won't even value raise AJ in this spot.

any help in what villain's range looks like?

i must have a serious problem with iso and cbet ranges. i can't figure out any missed draws besides 8 combos of 98s and j9s. i wouldn't think villain should be c-betting anything that's not a draw or a pair. i don't see villain barreling k or q-hi either and don't see him vbetting river with worse than our hand. i must be doing something horribly wrong to be this far off.

the range i put villain on pre is: 44+, a7/a2s, k8/k7s, q9, jt/j9s, t8s, 76s
the range i put him on flop and is: 66+, 98s, j9s

is there a problem with these ranges?

?
Explain to me how the density of villain value range changes anything when you have a bluff catching hand and everything miss...

Villain got lot of A yes and so he should bluff with lot of hands like flush draw and straight draw that miss, trying to represent an A .

You are saying 87 here is too low in your bluff catching range than I understand your post but I would be very surprise you think that .

Of course but the river (ui) ?
Probably call all T, fold the bottom 8 and 50/50 call the top 8 I guess ?

1) Villain is going to continue firing all his value, but give up with bluffs as appropriate with pot odds
2) Our hand drops further down in our range as a result of check calling the turn (we probably do not check raise / check call draws often)

"Everything missed", but A8s+ has not missed, and all of it is betting the river. As I've capped my range on the turn fairly sufficiently by check calling, even a hand as weak as 88 can likely bet for value. That's a lot of value hands.

I've analyzed this hand in many ways and have come up w/ particular river betting ranges where my hand is a fold. Here's one:

Plus, your line of thinking is incredibly exploitative, and you're just going to get shown the nuts on this run out every time if your strategy revolves around "everything missed I call".

I personally think villain can have J8s, 86s as well to add to his straight draw potential (which also adds to his Tx potential as he could potentially isolate this limper with a hand like JTo). I posted an example hand range above that indicates a river fold for my hand (which doesn't include potential "demibluffs" on the river where he tries to get me off another 7).

1) Agreed. I do want to be value injected when three betting as it'll be hard to not have to show my hand down if we go off 3 ways, but villain is definitely someone i should have a preflop 3 bet range against. Maybe I can start at T9s for my connector 3 bets. It's something worth thinking about.

2) Agreed. His range for cbetting is stronger than a cbet monkey, but I should have okay equity against most anything (I even still have 8.3% equity against red tens surprisingly).

3) This villain definitely could raise me on the turn with a decent ace, and I'm definitely not completely polarized in my turn barrel (ex: I'd still bet a hand like QT on the turn and puke when raised). The A just isn't a good card for my range, though, so I think opting to donk check showdownable hands a fair amount of time is logical.

he's in the cutoff. i can see j8s, but is 86s even an open from that position?

how often should villain be cbetting q9 or kj or ak? i just figured never, but maybe i'm wrong?

Jdr, do you bet a T on the turn ?
In a previous post you say you bet QT, so tell me how many bluff catch you have left in your range ?

I mean 87 should be pretty high in your bluff catch if you bet like all your T , right ?

I think AK has plenty of value against peeling ranges here. KQ...I can go either way, really.

Sometimes. More frequently with my strongest tens and less frequently with my weakest.

Its so close on the river (you have 10% equity and need 12), if I have a bluff catch I am just calling all river when everything miss with a run out like that .
It's not like a small pot ( 3way with a c/r on flop ) and your line do not make your range very "opaque" for villain for not knowing where you at ( T on the river makes it less likely you have one ) .

If villain so good with bluff/value ratio , I would rather take JL line on the turn .

I do what i would do with a ten. As played, I'd c/r the river.

does villain ever think u have KK/AA/AK/etc in this spot?

also how does villain think you play all ur other combos of OESD, gutshots, and bdfds?

also what about ur Tx type hands.


in the moment, i probably call and feel soul owned when i get shown JJ-KK.

i also think if villain does happen to have Kx or Qx in that spot, a check back on the river is probably ok since hero prolly has enough draws that bricked off and isn't calling anymore.

hero can't have a draw with this line tho. i'd figure c/'ing back k hi on turn and calling river gets 1 bet in infinitely better.

3 bet pre flop.