Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandwich
Hey, pick on me generally then. I can take it. And yes I agree and get the aphorism — and in context I said “ at game-speed I felt like by showing strength I could take control of the hand and get the villain to fold Tx or worse before more overcards came.”
Setting aside whether my Tx conclusion was correct, in the games that I play, I DO think certain opponents will give up (fold better hands or decide not to draw) when I (perhaps due to my otherwise tight image) “take control of the betting” by barreling or raising. Am I thinking about that all wrong?
Yes. Because you're doing it with poor hand selection.
The entire premise of "take control of the hand" is the assumption that your opponent is an idiot who will never bet or raise after a certain point without a better hand. That if you call 33 on the flop, you check turn and he checks and gets to draw at you, while if you raise, he will just fold and you get to win a decent sized pot w/ low investment. However, if he has KJ/J9, he might just raise you again, and now instead of being bluffed off of a 4 BB pot that you invested 1 BB into (0.5 of which was in blinds), you get raised on the turn and fold a now 9 BB pot that you invested 3 into.
Like why are you choosing to "bluff" here with a hand with low-medium showdown value and low redraw potential? Why don't you choose hands that fare worse with showdown value but better with redraw? Like a J
9
or even a 7
6
(backdoor OESFD potential)? 33 has terrible equity when called, so it needs more fold equity than the average bluff in this spot. And since it blocks literally no hands our opponent can reasonably have that continue, it will actually generate LESS folds than average. Add in that our opponent has already declared that his hand is strong by simply betting this flop, and you have a recipe for a very spewy play.
The fact that you'd consider calling this 3 bet to potentially bluff x/r on a turn 5 is also poorly thought out. Firstly, this is a rare event (we don't see 47 cards and only 3 of them are a 5). Secondly, for what value hand is a 5 a scare card? If you hold KK and 3 bet this flop, and the turn is a 5, there's now 2 less flopped set combos (out of 3 total), and you now beat QT. Even Q5/T5, which you now have less equity against than a neutral turn card, are more rare.
It sounds like you're having a tough time w/ ranging your opponents. I'd consider doing some exercises like playing out certain preflop scenarios (common one: open MP, 2 cold callers and a BB call), dealing out flops, and figuring out what actions you'd take with certain hands. You'll see things like how you aren't all that excited about betting 99 into a field on QT5 for example. So if you aren't doing it, there's a good chance they aren't doing it.