So I drive with jason_t to Pittsburgh and we're playing 4/8, just living the dream, talking about what we're going to do with the BBJ money, listening to everyone talk about the Stillers because it's Saturday Feb 5 and they don't yet know that Mr. Rodgers is going to show them The Land of Make Believe (whatever that means).

I think Jason is on the nitty side, and whatever you think if me is what it is.

UTG limps, Dave limps, another limp utg+2, MP raises, you call with 33, everyone behind calls and we're 9 ways for 2 bets.

Flop is Jd Js 8d. Checks to pfr who bets, you call, 2 more calls behind, Dave checkraises, 1 fold, one call, pfr calls, everyone left calls. Whew.

6 ways to the turn and, bink, it's a 3, non-diamond. Dave bets, 1 call, pfr folds, you raise, 1 call behind you, Dave now 3-bets, fold in front, and now how much action do you put in to showdown.

4b and cd after that.

tell jason i say hi.

I fold the flop.

The flop call seems pretty bad to me here too.

-ActionBob

agree bad flop call.

once we get to the turn? all of them. bet all of them.

Mr. Rodgers can kiss my ass.

Even though I agree with others that my flop call was dubious with so many players left to act and Jx redraws to worry about even if I do spike my miracle, I'm also feeling a little like my hand is face-up. In any case, my line feels very strong. But maybe I could have waited for a turn blank before trying to protect 98s or something? And now Dave is telling me and my suspected 9x, "Nice try, but I have a Jack (and not a flush draw)"?

I don't know what's in Dave's range that has me beat. I guess maybe 88, but I suspect that's a preflop raise, and maybe I should be thinking more in terms of J8s? But, wait, does "just living the dream" (along with the lower-than-usual-for-this-forum stakes) mean that J8o is possible? J3o?

J8o is def in his range, and probably J3s. I would discount 88 somewhat but not 100%.

I thought villain was jason_t.....

I'm thinking I would go one more raise at most.

I doubt I would have slowplayed a J on a massively multiway flop. And, if I wouldn't have, then a 4-bet by me on the turn seems to clear up most doubt: the 3 helped me, and I have a house. So if Dave keeps coming after that, I'm not liking my hand very much anymore.

I know its 4-8 and all but flop call is terrible, but because its 4-8 and all i would go one more raise...

So we are Jason in this scenario, right?

If so, I think I like just calling the 3-bet on the turn.

Yeah I'm assuming hero is jason. Not sure.

The flop is really close but getting 19:1 we almost have direct odds to turn a boat unless we're drawing dead. But I think the implied odds we gain from Jx outweighs the reverse implied odds we have against 88/J8.

That we're not closing the action and can easily face a c/r is troublesome, though, so again it's close.

On the turn I may consider going ahead with a 4-bet because Dave's 3-betting range has to be wider than 88/J8s. He could have QJ/JT and might even limp early with KJ. I really don't think Dave 5-bets us on the turn unless we're dead to the remaining 3, so it's probably a safe fold at that point.

But that brings me to another point -- Dave thinks we're a nit, so our 4-bet is likely to shut him down with a lot of his weaker hands. JT might fold instantly. So what about calling the 3-bet and raising the river? We could fold an 8 river, raise any 7 or smaller, and maybe just call a K, Q, or T if we read that he filled up.

This is exactly what I was thinking. The 4-bet on the turn really narrows our range in Dave's mind given that we are Jason. But if we call then we have more options on the river... not to mention there is still a 3rd player behind us on the turn who we probably want to call.

It's a really crude calculation, but I just tossed every single Jx hand along with JJ and 88 into Stove versus our 33 on a JJ83 board. HU versus that JJ, 88, Jx range, our 33 has about 73 percent equity. That surprised me a little (I thought our equity would be higher), so I thought, okay, there's too much J3o in there. So I dumped J3o but then in the interest of being "fair" also got rid of everything J6o and lower. Our equity dropped to 71 percent! (But I guess this shouldn't have surprised me so much since J3o is just, like, 1-2 combos anyway.)

Anyway, it appears the HU versus a guy with a range of JJ/88/Jx, our implied odds and reverse-implied odds would roughly cancel each other out. On a turn three, we can expect to win 15 BB or so (the existing pot on the flop plus ~5 BB on the turn/river) about 3/4 of the time. And we can expect to lose about 5 BB the other 1/4 of the time. So that's about 10 BB we win on average when we spike a 3, but we're going to miss our 3 often enough (more than 20/21 of the time) to wipe out that occasional 10 BB gain.

The rounding off I did in that previous paragraph was in our favor, and this distorts matters somewhat in favor of a call. Also, it's worth mentioning that if JJ/88/Jx is out there in the hands of anyone but the PFR, the chances of a flop raise or checkraise behind us would appear to be pretty good.

On the other hand, what I didn't account for at all were the passengers, and those passengers could help us out considerably. For instance, we're particularly happy to have, say, XdXd or T9o out there on a 3 turn.

Anyway, I think that if we somehow knew there would be no raise behind us, then the flop call would be easy enough. But we are acting immediately after the flop bettor, and it's the presence of 7(!) players behind us who can raise or checkraise that makes matters murky. Now, when I responded initially, I just kind of assumed that someone was going to raise it up, and then not so infrequently there would be 3-bet after that. But that may have been too pessimistic.

If we spike a 3 we will have no trouble winning 4+ big bets on average, but even so we need to avoid straights, flushes and bigger houses.

If we were closing the action we would happily call the flop getting 20:1
but if it get check-raised then we are only getting 12:1 or so depending on the number of players who call. 12:1 is not good enough.

On the turn, I would be tempted to 3-bet right away if the 3rd player will call. The overlay helps make up for the times we get 4 bet, which should be rare.

Dave is limping J7o UTG+1 behind one limper?

Oh yeah -- we really have to be worried about straights and flushes on a JJ3x board with 33.

I don't know what Dave's range is. Gaming Mouse says that Dave's range in this game does include J8o, FWIW. But the idea that I was trying to test out was PJ's assertion that our implied odds versus Jx, JJ, and 88 should be greater than our reverse-implied odds. And that question isn't about Dave's range so much as the whole table's. It so happened that it turned out to be Dave who apparently hit the flop hard. But it could have been anyone.

Or it could have been no one. Or it could have been multiple people. I'm not sure how useful the Stove I ran is or is not, but I did at least admit at the outset that it was very crude.

And in the end I think that PJ's assertion is basically correct if we take into account that the pot will probably remain at least somewhat multiway through the initial turn action.

!!! silly me.

How is it possible for JT to fold instantly to another bet? Even if we flipped over a J and Dave knows our kicker is better (worst case scenario for JT), he still has to call with at least 23 bets in the pot already.

I think the reason to raise or not depends on how many other people are left. I had trouble reading the action as to who is still calling on the turn, I think there is one other player still left. I guess a flush draw might drop out if faced with two bets and likely would call one. But either way, we don't know Dave's kicker and the other caller might also have a J, so I say raise now on the turn.

My range is pretty narrow when I 3-bet Jason and it does not include AJo. I thought this was interesting because it's similar to hands where you're playing against a LAG who is decent at handreading and knows he has zero fold equity against you. I think it's a very clear calldown because Jason's hand looks to me like 88/33/J8s/JTs/QJs/KJs/AJs and I'm still 3-betting.

The first thought I had was 4-bet and fold to a 5-bet, because when Daver 5-bets here you're drawing to one at best, but honestly you can't really bet the river when he calls even. Daver isn't doing this with KJs, unless Jason's really got some game in him and might be making a play to get it HU or 3-way to the river with 77 or a hand like A5d against the times Daver has a flush draw/straight draw combo and he has a chance to win u/i. Which, Daver doesn't think he's doing, so. If putting in 2 bets, though, is what happens when you 4-bet and fold to a 5-bet, even when he just calls, you should probably just call once and call again and leave yourself the one outer. But then again, it's a longshot for Daver to have KJs here, and I'd be SHOCKED if he couldn't beat QJs outright, and there's no way I can see him limping AJ in here PF, so... Folding doesn't seem all that out of the question. I mean, you do kinda only beat a fraction of 2 combos and every time you're beat you are drawing to a single out... There's totally no way though I make this fold unless I'm in god-mode, but I can definitely see myself doing it if he doesn't have anything other than a boat here. If that's not the case though at this actual moment then obviously you have to choose some other line like call/call or 4-bet/fold/bet the river.

By the way, this kinda reminds me of a hand from the Commerce 40 game where I raised a MP limper with 66. I raise from the CO, SB calls, BB calls, limper calls. Flop comes: AT6r. Checked to me and I bet, SB calls, BB check-raises, CO folds, I 3-bet, SB folds, BB calls. Turn comes: Tr. BB checks, I bet, BB raises, I 3-bet, BB 4-bets, I muck. Not quite the same obviously, but it just goes to show... folding underboats is fun.

I played a similar hand at Commerce too. I cold-called 33 OTB after several callers, old rock Asian in the SB 3-bets. AT3, he bets, I raise, he calls. Turn T. He donks, I raise, he 3!, I fold. He flashes AA.

Re GoT and Dave's last comments. I basically agree, but there is one twist.

Jason knows Dave is an animal capable of sick bluffs, and Dave knows that Jason knows this. So in theory yes, Jason will never be folding and Dave shouldn't be trying to push him off good hands in big pots. But there is that one extra level, where since they are both aware of this dynamic at some point there is room for Jason to make folds again, and for Dave to start bluffing again.

It reminds me of the hand CDC posted fairly recently where he 4b bluffed deathdonkey off a set.