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Can I fold now? Can I fold now?

09-01-2015 , 11:56 AM
Let’s make some assumptions on the range of hand he raises with so we can estimate our expectation.
He will raise sets, flushes, FD with or without something else.
He may slow play sets and strong flushes sometimes and call with some other weaker holdings weaker (flushdraws with or without something else and top/2nd pairs.)
Against the sets and flushes we are pretty bad but there should not be that many combos of them. Most of his range consists of flushdraws with or without something else.
Say we are dead against 20% of his range and we assign 12 outs to each combos of the remaining 80% of his flop raising range.
So our equity is about 0.8*0.5=0.4 or 40%.
When it gets back to us, pot is 7sb. To get to showdown we have to pay 5sb when we lose and we win additional 3sb (estimate) when we win.
Our expectation is 0.6*(-5)+0.4 *10=-3+4=1 (sb)
If we only win 2sb when we win, our expectation would be 0.6 sb
If we are dead 30% of the time and we win 2sb in addition to the pot when we win, our expectation would be -0.1sb.
This seems to argue for a call given the range of our expectation is from a small loss to a substantial win.
Can I fold now? Quote
09-01-2015 , 03:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montrealcorp
so phunk, you bet the flop has a bluff than ?
If you feel your hand is so weak, why bet into 3 players in the first place?
And if it was a bet for information, well imo that is one of the worst reason to justify a bet.

btw why not simply check fold the flop then if a small bet on this flop raise makes you fold?
or simply c/c all the way ?
Come on now. You're a better poster than this. The flop bet is obviously for value/protection. This is obv not an information bet. Just because PP doesnt bet for information though doesn't mean he doesn't gain a ton when a nit raises him.

Out of morbid curiosity though, PP if he had just the called the flop and raised the turn how would your view of his range change?
Can I fold now? Quote
09-01-2015 , 03:50 PM
Delay raise is always value 2p+. Tight players might mess around Otf with medium strength hands or big combo draws but so rarely OTT. Would snap fold TK, think fold TA, and spite call 2p expecting to lose.
Can I fold now? Quote
09-01-2015 , 08:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by clicker
Let’s make some assumptions on the range of hand he raises with so we can estimate our expectation.
He will raise sets, flushes, FD with or without something else.
He may slow play sets and strong flushes sometimes and call with some other weaker holdings weaker (flushdraws with or without something else and top/2nd pairs.)
Against the sets and flushes we are pretty bad but there should not be that many combos of them. Most of his range consists of flushdraws with or without something else.
Say we are dead against 20% of his range and we assign 12 outs to each combos of the remaining 80% of his flop raising range.
So our equity is about 0.8*0.5=0.4 or 40%.
When it gets back to us, pot is 7sb. To get to showdown we have to pay 5sb when we lose and we win additional 3sb (estimate) when we win.
Our expectation is 0.6*(-5)+0.4 *10=-3+4=1 (sb)
If we only win 2sb when we win, our expectation would be 0.6 sb
If we are dead 30% of the time and we win 2sb in addition to the pot when we win, our expectation would be -0.1sb.
This seems to argue for a call given the range of our expectation is from a small loss to a substantial win.
I agree with this. And as Phunk says, QT may be the fulcrum point.
Can I fold now? Quote

      
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