Hand 3:
9-handed 20 game. Pretty wild game at this point, button in the hand has a somewhat tilty image but she is a very good player and generally has the goods even when she's on tilt.

A EP raise and a couple callers to button who three-bets. I look at AK in the BB and cap it. 3 middle callers and Button calls.

Pot: 20SBs
Flop: A23
I lead, folds to LP who calls, button raises, I call? LP calls.

Pot: 13BBs
Turn: 7
I donk, LP calls, button raises, I three-bet with no plans of ever folding...

i usually just keep the lead on the flop. first off, LP is not necessarily drawing, he could easily have a weak pair here. Getting him to fold practically anything in this size of a pot would be great. get him out now if you can. plus you're basically just jamming for value..

turn donk is good i guess as played and i'd just call down when button raises again. at that point, i think you're chopping or losing too often against her, even with the LP dude along for the ride. i duno might be worth a look at stove...

I think my range for button is probably {AK,AA}. MAYBE AhQh but probably not. She never 3-bets 22/33/Ah7h preflop. I guess the question is whether or not the value from LP makes up for the fact that button is freerolling me with her range.

Most likely hand for the 3rd player is a heart draw, so excellent play to 3-bet and charge him the max. If the flop were dry, a smooth call followed by another river donk would be kind of money, letting him draw. Note that you are likely only risking half the pot in this spot, so he does not have the right odds to draw as far as you are concerned (fascinating theoretical possibility that the choppers may be each happy to let someone draw, and the drawer may be getting the right odds, by the way...)

good luck.
Eric

I actually really like it. By default I'd 3-bet the flop and just keep warring a bit longer, but this line gets LP stuck for the most. Even if the button has exactly AA or AK, you're chopping 6/7ths of the time (there is only one AA as opposed to six AK combos). I say NH

How do you get so close and then not just give the answer?

In this range, there is:

1 combo you beat
1 combo you lose
6 combos you chop

Let's just elliminate AQh for a second. The extra raise wins you an extra small bet the 80% of the time that you dodge a heart river. You lose an extra small bet 20% of the time when the flush gets there, and you lose an extra 2 big bets whenever you see AA. That's:

1 (-2) + 6 (.6*.5) = -.2

So if there is no chance you are ahead, you'll need to fold to a cap or a river heart to make raising right. Can you do that?

If you believe he would raise AQh (pretty reasonable assumption I think), then you have a clear raise, as you are going to win several extra big bets most of the time (you have to dodge a heart and a Q, but still, clearly more than .2 big bets EV for the extra money, even for only 1 combo).

So there you go. 3-bet if you think there is much chance you can (correctly!) get away when beaten, or if the button will raise top-pair-plus-draw.

-eric

Are you suggesting check/fold to a river heart? Not even bet/fold?

Also, what would've been the plan if the turn had been a heart?

little bit confused here. why do i want the 3rd player to draw? yes he is only drawing to half the pot as far as i am concerned, but he is also only paying me half bets! id definitely prefer that he folds incorrectly.
i get 1(-2) + 6(.8*.5) - 6(.2) = -.8.

so if you fold to a cap or river heart (always correctly) - you gain .2 bbs. i don't think it's worth it since you can sometimes incorrectly fold to a cap

Excellent insight that I totally missed. willie24 got it right.

thanks willie.

What about not capping preflop, then check raising the flop to get heads up against a player who might be a little tilty with AK, on an A23 board?

I don't really like capping out of position with AKo with a 3 bet coming from a player you say is good on the button.