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Analyzing Failed Shots at 15/30 and 20/40...possibly NC/LC Analyzing Failed Shots at 15/30 and 20/40...possibly NC/LC

03-04-2011 , 03:24 AM
So I've taken shots at the 15/30 and 20/40 with pretty dismal results. Even though it's a very small sample (<20hrs), I don't feel any major tangible edge when playing these games. Here's a list of things I feel need examining and reworking, and was wondering if ppl could give some advice.

1. Hand-reading - people in 15/30 and 20/40 tarp a lot more than in 6/12 and 8/16. I find myself paying off excessively with both the strong and weak part of my range, especially against the c/c-lead line. I also feel so uncomfortable making exploitative bet-folds in bigger limit games, but wouldn't think twice to do in a smaller game. (and also, lower limit players are much more predictable in predicting their playing patterns, whereas mid-stakes players seem to vary it much more widely)

2. Isolating - EP limp, folds to me in CO/BTN, I would isolate super-wide in a 6/12 and 8/16 game, as bad as J8o/76s, etc. I found that any EV lost preflop I could make up post, given how bad opponents tend to play out of the blinds and OOP. In the 15/30 and 20/40, people open limp AQ/AK/QQ (presumably for value), and now I'm stuck figuring out a reasonably profitable isolating range. I also find my opponents will play back or 3bet-re-isolate wide. Back to ABC tight poker then?

3. Short-handed pots - gonna post some examples where I realized that, I really don't know how to play these spots well.

4. Reads - developing reads becomes increasingly difficult when players play fewer hands and don't show them at showdown (e.g. they muck the losing hand). Assessment of ranges, how they think, etc. becomes futile.
Analyzing Failed Shots at 15/30 and 20/40...possibly NC/LC Quote
03-04-2011 , 06:14 AM
1 & 4. Remember that the only reason why lower limit players are predictable is that you have more hours and you've seen a lot more of their play. That is, reads develop with time whether you're good/bad/winner/loser.

2. Are you actually able to isolate/steal at a 2/3 blind 15/30? I can't remember the last time I raised (opened or RWPL) on the CO/BTN and one of the blinds didn't come along. I skew my hands to multiway hands even when isoraising in anticipation of this. Last year when I first started dabbling with the 15/30, I counted my fold equity in steal situations, I think I got 1 successful steal out of 13-14 attempts. It's super-low. Nobody folds to a flop cbet, either, so you can't just barrel and expect people to cower in fear like they do at 6/12.

3. Do you play online? It's a pretty fast, somewhat cheap way to get a lot of steal/blind experience.
Analyzing Failed Shots at 15/30 and 20/40...possibly NC/LC Quote
03-04-2011 , 11:29 AM
Maybe this well help, maybe not. I've never not felt at least partially this way every time I've ever moved up in stakes (starting with .25 to .50 online, lol). Now I'm taking shots at 30 from 15, and haven't done well my first couple sessions. It's like my confidence that borders on arrogance at 15 suddenly disappears when playing for double the stakes, even with a proper bankroll.
What helps me in the end, is knowing I've seen the movie before, and knowing how it ends - I eventually get used to the stakes, adjust to opponents, and run better. Didn't you start somewhere before you played 6-8? And do you realize you wouldn't think twice if you lost over a <20hr sample in your normal game?
Analyzing Failed Shots at 15/30 and 20/40...possibly NC/LC Quote
03-04-2011 , 12:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by swifttarrow
2. Isolating - EP limp, folds to me in CO/BTN, I would isolate super-wide in a 6/12 and 8/16 game, as bad as J8o/76s, etc.
This is a massive leak at 20/40, and probably still a major leak at 8/16.
Analyzing Failed Shots at 15/30 and 20/40...possibly NC/LC Quote
03-04-2011 , 01:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain R
This is a massive leak at 20/40, and probably still a major leak at 8/16.
Really. So there's a limper to you in the co with 67s and you're folding????
Analyzing Failed Shots at 15/30 and 20/40...possibly NC/LC Quote
03-04-2011 , 02:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OnTheRail15
Really. So there's a limper to you in the co with 67s and you're folding????
I think OP would be way better served limping or folding this than trying to iso-raise it. I think I could profitably raise this in some spots, but not all, and probably not in most live 20 games.

I mean, if the guy doesn't think he has any edge in your average live 15 or 20 game, iso-raising this is really going to send him on the fast road to sadville.
Analyzing Failed Shots at 15/30 and 20/40...possibly NC/LC Quote
03-04-2011 , 04:50 PM
captainR - I mentioned "major tangible edge"...I think I have a little bit of an edge. Without any way of knowing for sure, I'd imagine that edge to be < 1BB /hr at the Oaks 15/30 (on average), and probably around 1BB/hr in the 20/40.

In the 6/12 and 8/16, I can profitably isolate with a wide range because it's very easy to play against predictable players postflop. Most loose-passives if they c/raise me will be a solid draw or TP+, calling down with 2nd pair and sometimes 3rd pair. In a 20/40 game, when I get c/raised (which seems to be like every other hand), I start to add in all kinds of gutshots and pairs and it becomes increasingly difficult to determine what kind of hands I should call down with.

I'm also bluffing too much, which I think is stemming from being uncomfortable in a bigger limit; not checking to induce often enough, which is stemming from always betting like crazy for value against loose-passives; too loose preflop, which is probably sustained from playing in too many loose 6/12 and 8/16 games (for example, in the 20/40, I have to turn off auto-pilot when I pick up something like 22-55 UTG and fold given tight table conditions).
Analyzing Failed Shots at 15/30 and 20/40...possibly NC/LC Quote
03-04-2011 , 05:45 PM
I find super low stakes players much more randomly spazzy and therefore much less predictable than mid-stakes.
Analyzing Failed Shots at 15/30 and 20/40...possibly NC/LC Quote
03-04-2011 , 06:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by swifttarrow
captainR - I mentioned "major tangible edge"...I think I have a little bit of an edge. Without any way of knowing for sure, I'd imagine that edge to be < 1BB /hr at the Oaks 15/30 (on average), and probably around 1BB/hr in the 20/40.
This would mean you're absolutely crushing the game fwiw.
Analyzing Failed Shots at 15/30 and 20/40...possibly NC/LC Quote
03-04-2011 , 07:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by callipygian
2. Are you actually able to isolate/steal at a 2/3 blind 15/30? I can't remember the last time I raised (opened or RWPL) on the CO/BTN and one of the blinds didn't come along. I skew my hands to multiway hands even when isoraising in anticipation of this. Last year when I first started dabbling with the 15/30, I counted my fold equity in steal situations, I think I got 1 successful steal out of 13-14 attempts. It's super-low. Nobody folds to a flop cbet, either, so you can't just barrel and expect people to cower in fear like they do at 6/12.
My experience at the Oaks is that iso-raising works even worse at 6-12 than 15-30, and worse at 15-30 than 30-60. All three games have the 2-chip-3-chip blind structure, but the tendency is to tighten up at the higher limits.

Likewise with flop c-bets: A lot of it is villain-dependent, with my having to adjust for specific players' specific tendencies, but as a general rule I expect more c-bets to be called at 6-12 than 15-30 and more at 15-30 than 30-60.

A lot of this may depend on our respective images. When I'm playing 6-12 nowadays, it's while I'm waiting for a seat in a bigger game, and I'm seen as a higher-limit player throwing my weight around; when I'm playing in the bigger games I'm seen as a regular, and people have at least some feel for how I actually play.
Analyzing Failed Shots at 15/30 and 20/40...possibly NC/LC Quote
03-04-2011 , 07:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by swifttarrow
So I've taken shots at the 15/30 and 20/40 with pretty dismal results. Even though it's a very small sample (<20hrs), I don't feel any major tangible edge when playing these games. Here's a list of things I feel need examining and reworking, and was wondering if ppl could give some advice.

1. Hand-reading - people in 15/30 and 20/40 tarp a lot more than in 6/12 and 8/16. I find myself paying off excessively with both the strong and weak part of my range, especially against the c/c-lead line. I also feel so uncomfortable making exploitative bet-folds in bigger limit games, but wouldn't think twice to do in a smaller game. (and also, lower limit players are much more predictable in predicting their playing patterns, whereas mid-stakes players seem to vary it much more widely)
The exploitative bet-fold thing sounds like a symptom of scared money to me. If you are going to play at higher limits, you are going to have to let go of the value of the chips while you are playing, and just play them. Sorry if that sounds glib, but that's what leaps to mind when I read your post.

Quote:
4. Reads - developing reads becomes increasingly difficult when players play fewer hands and don't show them at showdown (e.g. they muck the losing hand). Assessment of ranges, how they think, etc. becomes futile.
When you see a hand at showdown, it has already passed through the filter of the action on earlier streets, and doesn't accurately represent a player's range.

Online we have HUDs to help us, and can turn VPIPs and PFRs into hand-ranges that can be stoved. We can try to do the same thing live, but without the precision of databases with lots of hand histories. Just pay attention to how often a particular villain plays. How often do they open-limp up front? In late position? How often do they open-raise? Playing frequencies can be turned into hand ranges. The more you play, the better you can get at this.

For a while, during long, boring sessions I would single out a player and keep track of how many times they limped or raised preflop and how many times they called, bet, or raised, for two or three orbits of the button, so I could calculate VPIP/PFR/AF, just like my online HUD did. I took a lot of flack when I mentioned this on 2+2, and of course it takes a lot longer for any of those numbers to converge reasonably than just two orbits. But two orbits of data are better than no data. I'm not saying that you should do this; but try to find some way to usefully quantify your opponents' playing and raising frequencies.
Analyzing Failed Shots at 15/30 and 20/40...possibly NC/LC Quote
03-04-2011 , 09:08 PM
I'm with AlanBostick, it seems like the major moving up flaw here is psychological; e.g. making the assumption that because these players play slightly bigger, the average player plays significantly better than the average player the next stake down.

People are still 'bad', they're just bad in different (and sometimes even worse) ways, and if you could find a way to quantify the 'quality of play' of the population of players, you would probably just have two normal distributions with significant overlap and a very slight shifting of the mean quality of play to the left.

As qualitative support I'll offer these observations: the c/c-lead line is almost always the worst way to have played one's hand oop, and open limping AQ/AK/QQ is not a value play (ergo what does that tell you about the people doing it?)

Other random thoughts:
2) Isolation/blind stealing:

You should certainly be adjusting your isolation range according to factors such as the relative terribleness of the player you are attempting to isolate, and the propensity of players behind you to cold call and over cold call (or re-iso lite). Sometimes, you're just going to run into the top of someone's limping range, and just because those ranges include hands like AK and QQ doesn't mean you shouldn't also be isolating them if their ranges include (and are esp skewed towards) hands like T7o or J6s. This is a situation where Pokerstove is especially useful: stereotype a bunch of limping 'types', develop ranges for them, and stove away until you have pf ranges against which your equity > their equity.

Re: blind steals; a thought experiment: should you be steal raising a very wide range from the co/btn against exceptionally lose blinds even though on the face of it your steal is never ever going to be 'sucessful'? Why/why not? (Assume a very tight, foldy btn for those times you're in the co)

3) Short-handed pots:

A lot of the specific trouble spots you're suggested are probably linked to limited shorthanded experience (especially isoing and blind stealing). The only way to improve here is to play more shorthanded, read more shorthanded strat, and watch shorthanded videos.

One often less-obvious benefit of significant shorthanded experience is that because it tends to make you much better at hand reading and betting for value in a ton of wide-range situations, it has the convenient side effect of making the majority of narrow-range situations you end up in in full games significantly easier to play than they seemed before.

Last edited by ILikeRocks; 03-04-2011 at 09:23 PM.
Analyzing Failed Shots at 15/30 and 20/40...possibly NC/LC Quote
03-04-2011 , 11:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by swifttarrow
captainR - I mentioned "major tangible edge"...I think I have a little bit of an edge. Without any way of knowing for sure, I'd imagine that edge to be < 1BB /hr at the Oaks 15/30 (on average), and probably around 1BB/hr in the 20/40.
If you're a 1BB/hr winner at 20/40, you probably don't need to change anything.
Analyzing Failed Shots at 15/30 and 20/40...possibly NC/LC Quote
03-05-2011 , 12:06 AM
While I agree the players can be just as predictable at 20/40, the variation in how players play is larger. Additionally the lineup that particular day can have a huge effect on how profitalbe the game is. Twenty hours isn't enough to determine what an average game is like.

While a 4-8 game tends to have 60% the table playing a similar semi-loose straightforward style, at 20-40 you get uber tight nits (which are rare at lower limits), and there are more decent TAG players, some maniacs and few typical 4-8 types.

If two maniacs show up on the same day, game on. If three nits show up the game is gonna stick. Yeah, 4-8 can be the same way, but not to the same extent IMO.
Analyzing Failed Shots at 15/30 and 20/40...possibly NC/LC Quote
03-05-2011 , 12:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by swifttarrow
1BB/hr in the 20/40.
The lower rake will help you achive this.
Analyzing Failed Shots at 15/30 and 20/40...possibly NC/LC Quote
03-05-2011 , 12:36 AM
obviously really small sample. your talking about less than 1k hands total. How many times have we all run terrible for 1k-5k hands online. alot. how many bets is it? how bad is the run 5BB/100 in the red? 10? id just keep taking shots given you stay within your bankroll parameters and make sure i had an awesome seat as much as possible. Those games are for-sure beatable for 1BB if not more. oh and post hands you are unsure about.

Last edited by tw2238; 03-05-2011 at 12:50 AM.
Analyzing Failed Shots at 15/30 and 20/40...possibly NC/LC Quote
03-05-2011 , 08:41 AM
kevin your missing some stuff. Next time im in nor cal we can go over some stuff if you like but I think the differences between 6/12 and 15/30 - 20/40 are a little different. The biggest difference is probably just the tightness pre-flop aggression levels. People trap at levels of play, usually trapping is bad actually. I doubt youll see an intelligant trapping going on at 15/30 or 20/40.

Still you just need good fundmantals to beat the oaks 15/30 for instance. You really dont need to learn how to bluff or how to acertain if your being bluffed (that isnt important until 40/80 or 60/120). Read the jesse888 well and his blog to see what im talking about. 20/40 isnt rocket science.
Analyzing Failed Shots at 15/30 and 20/40...possibly NC/LC Quote
03-10-2011 , 02:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlanBostick
My experience at the Oaks is that iso-raising works even worse at 6-12 than 15-30, and worse at 15-30 than 30-60. All three games have the 2-chip-3-chip blind structure, but the tendency is to tighten up at the higher limits.

Likewise with flop c-bets: A lot of it is villain-dependent, with my having to adjust for specific players' specific tendencies, but as a general rule I expect more c-bets to be called at 6-12 than 15-30 and more at 15-30 than 30-60.
Sorry, I wasn't clear. Iso-raising works terribly at 6/12, but you don't get punished when it goes wrong. One limper, you raise 76s in the CO, and it's 5-way ... there's a high probability you can see the river for less than 1.5 BB, and when you spike, you get paid off multiway. Likewise, cbetting to take down the pot works terribly at 6/12, but when you flop TPTK, you usually can count on 2-4 BB in implied odds. Also, in all of these cases, bet/fold >> bet/call AINEC. At 15/30 bet/fold > bet/call but not "AINEC" far.
Analyzing Failed Shots at 15/30 and 20/40...possibly NC/LC Quote
03-10-2011 , 02:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by callipygian
Iso-raising works terribly at 6/12, but you don't get punished when it goes wrong. One limper, you raise 76s in the CO, and it's 5-way ... there's a high probability you can see the river for less than 1.5 BB, and when you spike, you get paid off multiway.
Do you mean iso-raising works at 6/12 then?

BTW, this is all very good stuff!
Analyzing Failed Shots at 15/30 and 20/40...possibly NC/LC Quote
03-10-2011 , 02:52 PM
narrow your isoraising range in late position pf.
have more nuance post flop rather than b/b/b.
when in doubt check back sometimes.
assume players are solid until proven otherwise.
don't try to outplay guys in small pots.
play solid. reads will come naturally.

profit
Analyzing Failed Shots at 15/30 and 20/40...possibly NC/LC Quote
03-10-2011 , 03:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MRDCHAN
when in doubt check back sometimes.
don't try to outplay guys in small pots.
Can you expand on these two?
Analyzing Failed Shots at 15/30 and 20/40...possibly NC/LC Quote
03-10-2011 , 03:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MRDCHAN
assume players are solid until proven otherwise.
This seems like a mistake to me.
Analyzing Failed Shots at 15/30 and 20/40...possibly NC/LC Quote
03-10-2011 , 03:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by swifttarrow
So I've taken shots at the 15/30 and 20/40 with pretty dismal results. Even though it's a very small sample (<20hrs), I don't feel any major tangible edge when playing these games.
20 hrs over two games is nothing. Thats like one session of each for me. Not feeling like you have a tangible edge is however important. You will see better players when you move up. Also, there will be fewer awful players. Aggression levels should go up. The biggest difference I found was that post flop play is much superior in 20/40.

When I moved up from 10/20 to 20/40 at FW I did feel like I had a tangible edge over the 20/40 players. It was obvious in a short period of time that the bad players were too loose. And more aggressive. But still too loose. Also, they open limped a lot.

When I moved up to play 40/80 I immediately sensed no tangible edge. In fact there was often a tangible disadvantage. Basically at FW the best 2 or 3 players at each 20/40 table gets up to play the 40/80 when it starts. Add to that one or two rich men who are bored at 20/40 and thats the game. Figure out who populates the 20/40 where you play. Do they have a 40/80 game as well? Or are the best players playing 20/40? How many games of 20/40 run at one time? (2 or more means there is a reasonable player pool). Are you talking about daytime? You will start to see a pool of professionals playing daytime 20/40.

edit: At Bay 101 when a 20/40 game starts up, it almost always has 3-5 40/80 players in it. I have started out down $1,000 before I knew what hit me. Then players start getting called to the 40 game and I start feeling really stupid...

Quote:
1. Hand-reading - people in 15/30 and 20/40 tarp a lot more than in 6/12 and 8/16. I find myself paying off excessively with both the strong and weak part of my range, especially against the c/c-lead line. I also feel so uncomfortable making exploitative bet-folds in bigger limit games, but wouldn't think twice to do in a smaller game. (and also, lower limit players are much more predictable in predicting their playing patterns, whereas mid-stakes players seem to vary it much more widely)
I found myself with the same problem in the 40/80 game. My guess is that you are talking yourself into calling when you shouldn't. I thought every player was so tricky this could be that hand. In the 20/40 games I play, you can safely fold for the most part to big street raises. Find out who is tricky or capable or raises with draws alot. Many don't or don't do it enough to matter.

Also there is more c/r'ing in the higher limit games. A lot of it is semi-bluffs. A lot of it is strong hands. Fewer pushovers/calling stations. There is a lot less slow playing and trapping though because players are much better post flop.
Quote:
2. Isolating - EP limp, folds to me in CO/BTN, I would isolate super-wide in a 6/12 and 8/16 game, as bad as J8o/76s, etc.
This is horrible in any game. 76s is a great multi-way hand why try to isolate? Also J8o is fairly bad unless you are taking a flier on the BTN for 1 bet. As a steal raise first in - then OK. Or if you are 3-betting to isolate and you have post flop skills, then OK as a surprise now and then. But I prefer stronger hands to isolate. And against openers who are weak players. When players open limp, why is that? Are they tight raisers who will have strong hands they limp with? Are they limping a ton of hands? Do they ever give up post flop with a pair? Etc. Know your players before you do this kind of battle.

Quote:
3. Short-handed pots - gonna post some examples where I realized that, I really don't know how to play these spots well.
Don't play short handed (<7) if you don't have the skills. Either develop skills on-line, reading books, or in lower limit games. Seek out the games to learn. You can make or lose a ton of money in very short periods of time. But if you are bad at it, good players will destroy you. And the bad players will tend to not play because they have already been destroyed.
Quote:
4. Reads - developing reads becomes increasingly difficult when players play fewer hands and don't show them at showdown (e.g. they muck the losing hand). Assessment of ranges, how they think, etc. becomes futile.
This is just silly. Most of the players at 20/40 will have tendencies you can count on. Figure out what they have when they muck. What hands could they play that way? Or maybe more helpful, what hands would have won that they don't have? When they muck with disgust on the river, you know they just got outdrawn and were ahead. Often they will give away their hands by the snide comments they make. I learn the most when I am getting chewed out for being stupid. Saying "I was ahead the whole way" often incites a litany of curses - but an equally amazing array of admissions.

Also, if a player shows his hand to a neighbor, ask to see it.

Last edited by Mr Rick; 03-10-2011 at 03:55 PM.
Analyzing Failed Shots at 15/30 and 20/40...possibly NC/LC Quote
03-10-2011 , 04:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by swifttarrow
captainR - I mentioned "major tangible edge"...I think I have a little bit of an edge. Without any way of knowing for sure, I'd imagine that edge to be < 1BB /hr at the Oaks 15/30 (on average), and probably around 1BB/hr in the 20.
I'm gonna be brutally honest here...when I read this I actually burst out laughing and had to put down my phone and compose myself to focus on a showdown.

Your perception is just so out of touch...winning 1 big bet per hour is a MASSIVE edge.
Analyzing Failed Shots at 15/30 and 20/40...possibly NC/LC Quote
03-10-2011 , 04:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by callipygian
Sorry, I wasn't clear. Iso-raising works terribly at 6/12, but you don't get punished when it goes wrong. One limper, you raise 76s in the CO, and it's 5-way ... there's a high probability you can see the river for less than 1.5 BB, and when you spike, you get paid off multiway. Likewise, cbetting to take down the pot works terribly at 6/12, but when you flop TPTK, you usually can count on 2-4 BB in implied odds. Also, in all of these cases, bet/fold >> bet/call AINEC. At 15/30 bet/fold > bet/call but not "AINEC" far.
Confirm live 6/12 players are non-expert.
Analyzing Failed Shots at 15/30 and 20/40...possibly NC/LC Quote

      
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