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PS 1: Think HERO / reg should he chk/folding river at some % based on game flow.
I'm not sure I believe in gameflow, unless you're explain it by villain playing badly in different ways based on recency bias. Then, can you read that well enough here to fold a clearly profitable call? That would be "based on gameflow", your read of ranges says call and you fold because of this thing. If the reg is decent, reasonably balanced, and you misread "I need to bluff some % here" as his recency based tilt, you end up self-owning.
I know live players can be terrible in this way, but the whole "reg" tag makes me want to not make big deviations. This is the LC thread, so maybe liveread = just do this because we know?
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PS 2: Bluffing river by HERO /reg should be close to 0% or never in my biased opinion
If you were behind on the river, you were already behind on the turn. Thus, it is possible that (within some reading error margin) you know 100% you aren't beat -- the river actions already happened on the turn with basically the same hand values, so you have that information. If that's the case, bluffing is free. Even if it never works...
If you expertly explain the turn, I think the river comes down to maths. I suspect the maths will tell you that 0EV spew could work on both sides for fun and profit.