You?
UTG is laggish/agro other player is fairly unknown but seems semiloose too.



Poker Stars $50/$100 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
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Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is CO with Q K
UTG raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG calls

Flop: (10 SB) 4 5 5 (3 players)
SB bets, UTG raises, hero ????

it's a fold for me. you are behind most of the time, you have less than 6 outs some of the time, and it may get 3bet or even capped behind you, why continue?

Don't forget the 4 outs for the Aces and 2 partial outs for the Jacks.

Is this a preflop question? I run like 32/24 pre and I fold this

Really? I think this is super easy 3bet given the read.

Id prob fold the flop but i think you have 6 outs alot. UTG will do this with hands that like A7s to fold out your better Ax hands

This guy is opening significantly lighter than a "standard" utg range.

This is a definite 3-bet imo..

Against a tighter opponent, id fold

Oops I sort of glossed over the read. Anyway I guess I don't think anyone is going to come up with a good argument for continuing on the flop, I'd like to see one though since I have a feeling you think this spot is interesting, and I might plug a leak too if someone shows we can profitably continue here (plus folding is no fun).

i fold flop too, but just to throw out a potential argument to continue...

if we 3bet for a free card, i think it will work a high % of the time, plus we have 6 outs often as well... ranges for both players are skewed towards weak hands with sd value like Ace hi and small pp... monsters will be very uncommon, so the risk of a cap is unlikely, plus we can quite credibly keep repping an overpair... also, if we do improve, we'll get looked up in at lest one spot almost always

doesn't seem like that's reason enough to spew off 3sb, but at least it will work a lot

kind of strange that the SB donks into two players no? I'd give him credit for something and would fold

I folded.. And I always fold here without thinking about it.

I have a fairly automatic strategy of folding when facing a bet and a raise, in a 3-handed pot with just over cards, but I think this might be a rare spot to continue.

I started thinking about it a bit, and Im now strongly leaning towards it being a cold call or a 3-bet.

I think 5x is very rare for either of them, same with higher pairs like JJ+. (preflop and fastplaying dry flop)

I think it's very rare you don't have 6 outs where you are getting 6:1 to continue (not closing the action). Which is almost enough just with immediate odds.
I think it's uncommon this flop is going to get 3-bet.

If you cold call and the guy is 3-betting something like 77 on the flop then you can get disgusting amounts of value with QQ+ (although it's a rare spot).

If you 3-bet, you might get a free card, and can barrel off if an ace hits. If the initial donker had AT, folds to your 3-bet, the raiser could easily have something like 66-77 and reason there's no way he's good once the A comes.

So the 3-bet could win you the pot, get you a free card, but it lowers your implied odds.

If you aren't going to get payed off too often when you hit your K/Q , that means you can have some bluffing outs with the A.

If they call a raise when a K/Q/A comes, then your implied odds go through the roof.

I think it's a cold-call or a 3-bet... I wanna know if other people came to the same conclusion. I see these types of calls a lot from the non 2p2 regs in the 30/60 games. I always assumed they're just burning money, but maybe this is a spot where it's not.

I tried this once and the UTG player didn't hesitate calling me down with 66 when the A hit the turn and the J hit the river.

Against a more sane opponent it has more merit I guess.

I like a fold here.

LAG UTG can probably have AQ here trying to fold out AK, which is a pretty bad situation. UTG could probably also have Ace wheel cards so there are a lot of times where the ace coming off is not good for hero.

When we are 'lucky' both villains have PP's, but I really doubt there is any fold equity unless it comes AJ. Against TAGs I could see it, but LAG and semiloose, I just dont see it.

Also, while there do not seem to be many ways for Sb to have a huge hand, donking the flop is somewhat indicative of that. Generally I would think 88 would want to c/r this flop. If he is really loose he could have a 5, otherwise there are some guys who have QQ in that spot.

Is this an auto call or raise for you guys with AK/AQ?

Heis, if you have convinced yourself that KQ is a call here due to 'phantom outs', I assume QsJs has to be significantly better no?

I'd agree QJ is better because the implied and pay off cards when you hit are better. People just fold much less to a turn raise on the Q or J.

Are people weighting SB's hand more towards PP b/c he didn't cap (that is looking for a safe flop to donk). It just seems weird that AT-AQ (discounting AK) would cold call here and then donk the flop.

I honestly believe that if they rarely fold a pocket pair, meaning the "phantom outs" are pointless, you have odds to call just for implied odds alone.

UNLESS the flop is going to get 3-bet a fair % of the time.

IF you get folds on kings and aces , QJs is as good.. The big reason it's not as good as I think UTG can easily have Ax here, but AQ is much less likely than AJ, because a lot more people cap AQ , but not AJ preflop.

So your Q and J is much more dirty than a K and a Q

Plus more people cap QQ than JJ (so when they dont cap, JJ is a more likely than QQ).

AK/AQ is not as good as KQ here... I think one of them likely has Ax (taking away your out) and I believe you have much less fold equity on a K/Q than an A.

So less implied odds, less fold equity...

I think you never fold a better hand with a 3bet, No-one folds a pair here and even if SB folds some random lol hand on the flop or turn, UTG will still have a hand worthy of a SD such as AT or a PP. Id call or fold depending on what i think SB will do.

I lean towards call as SB will very rarely be strong on the flop here, meaning we have 6 outs alot and get 3bet rarely

hmmmm... if we cold call... guess we dont know much about SB, but i would imagine we get 3bet by 99-66 more often than not the times he has those hands...

as long as we're speculating on lines other than folding, i think 3-betting > calling

My guess at ranges: UTG ( 66-TT, AQs-ATs, A2s-A5s, 67s, 78s, AT-AQ), SB: (44-QQ, A4s-A5s)

AK - 19.3% equity
KQ - 17.5%
QJss - 17.6%

- If an A or K has fold equity, theoretically I think QJ>KQ>AK. But in practice I don't see how it can work. If an A comes, and we get bet into it is hard for me to believe we have a profitable bluff raise. Also, if it gets checked to us on an A turn, which I think it would a very large % of the time an ace was good, then there is no way two guys are folding to a bet there.

- IMO QJss is a tiny bit better than KQo but it is definitely not clear (basically all the arguments I was going to write I could see going either way). While I agree generally with the differences in villains ranges with respect to QQ vs JJ and AQ vs AJ, I do not think those differences are very large.

- I do think you get 3 bet on this flop a lot, and that is the main reason I typically would fold here. If I were going to continue, I'd rather have AK for sole equity purposes because I think the other factors are small in net.

While I still believe a fold is correct in this particular spot, this hand has definitely made me consider some similar spots with slightly differing boards (where I think SB's range is weaker) and I think there may be spots to call two here profitably that I had not considered.

I would discount A5s from SB pretty heavily.. He wasn't THAT loose. Id also discount QQ a lot more than JJ.

I would also discount A5 from UTG not for preflop, but for raising the flop.

This has large effects on the implied odds and flop 3-bet frequencies.
The rest of the ranges seem pretty reasonable

Also, while you say the other factors are "small in net".
1% equity (it works out to ~1% with my discounted ranges). Is also very very small in net.

Without information I think it's safe to say people on average will not play an A the same as a K or a Q.

Id be more inclined to 3-bet AK and cold call KQ for this reason.

I think a lot of people shut down once an ace hits (either planning to bet/fold, check/call down or check/fold)
but are more inclined to bet/call down when a K comes. And much more so for a Q.

If you 3-bet, you lose this chance for either hand...

But im also not convinced it's not a fold.. Just leaning towards calling.

Now that I think about it, getting 3-bet isnt that bad at all because you trap UTG in the middle. Both for his extra flop bet and most importantly when you hammer the turn after you improve.

Analysis

If SB 3-bets and UTG calls. You are putting in 3 bets to win 16 (10 preflop + 6 on flop).

You need ~1:6.5 to justify the call. You are getting 1:5.3 immediate.

Now, if a K/Q comes on the turn and SB bets into the field and the other guy calls you will get to hammer the turn with a raise.

If say now only SB calls down. A very common situation will net you 8 small bets.

For ~8:1 on the implied odds. Easily justifying the costs.

However the assumption of 6 clean outs 100%, and always wining the pot when you hit is very optimistic.

In my opinion I think it's not a radical difference because of how often I believe just how frequently you are drawing live.

At least I can conclude it's CLOSE on immediate odds alone.

But now combine that with the value that if an A comes on the turn, you could easily get a free card.. Or a bluffing chance (not sure what's best in this spot).

Seems to me like a call, even if we expected to get 3-bet 100% of the time by SB's range.

But again, if undiscounted A5/QQ/AQ is in both of their ranges your implied odds get murdered and id fold.

If SB and UTG are TAG's I think this is a CLEAR call.

yeah, but if we are coldcalling, then get 3bet and see a turn that doesnt improve us, we'll be getting over 10:1 assuming we face a bet and call.... ranges have not changed drastically at that point, so we should still feel our 6 outs are live often... meaning we prob need to peel again right?

seems like a net negative rio on a 2-3sb flop investment, even if we couple it with good positive io on a turn/river k or q......

A profitable turn call increases the value of the flop call, not decreases?

Yep, if we got positive implied odds on flop. If the riverbets overall goes in bad it can be a flopfold even if we got immediate odds on flop and turn (like when we got Ax and BB cr flop).

One other argument for coldcalling is that you can now coldcall some overpairs and increase their profitability on the turn most likely. Seems like it would be good shania.

i didn't read any of the math parts of this thread since i don't understand them, but this logic seems wrong. it's like saying, i 5-bet you on the flop with a gutshot hu, but now the pot is so big i can peel the turn profitably.

Your EV on a flop call is the (weighed) sum of the EV you'll get on every turn card. Saying that you have a profitable call on a blank just means that you have >0 EV on these turn cards, which increases the overall profitablity of the play.

In your example, the fact that we can peel the turn still increases the overall EV of the flop 5bet (compared to if we had to fold turn), but it doesn't necessarily make it better than peel flop+give up on turn ui. That would be the logical mistake, i.e. thinking that getting to see a river card is the goal of the game.