Daft_Punk i cant easily reply to you with anything new, thats all, if i interpreted correctly your post the way i did. But i may try (if only to show you why i didnt initially) because i was also somewhat unsatisfied by the restricted direction the thread took with myself to blame as well.

Do you want to approach the problem without the introduced Mars angle? That is indeed a more generalized proper approach of such problem because OP didnt give any details which made it harder to focus.

For example if the risk destroys all of the solar system (eg a rogue traveling neutron star or black hole enters the sun neighborhood etc - ultra tiny chances but whatever) we have a harder problem because we cant go anywhere and all that is left is the ark ship solution that is very tough (Mars at least has the resources and stable surface and gravity). I will of course keep looking for solutions to save life in any scenario as my single most ethical priority. If all fails i will go for even a sequence of several smaller spaceships that take thousands of years to find another system and release bacteria in it (design a proper protection small ship that can be immune to cosmic radiation and last thousands of years in some form of hibernation of its systems until it gets to where it needs to go). That is a lot cheaper than any other solution and has some chance to work if all else is impossible. It is in fact a worthy thread in itself how to design a ship that can travel for thousands of years and then "wake up" in another solar system to release its payload. We probably are not far from having such technology already (but the payload cannot be humans). We only need to design a system that doesnt go bad in thousands of years of space conditions (no erosion other than cosmic radiation and cold 0 pressure environment all around) which can also protect life in some frozen state or use radio-isotopes to produce some warmth around it if going real low in temperatures is an issue) .

That is the other extreme direction the thread could have taken that it didnt (ie all life ends and solar system cannot be saved). Making the situation specific enough is usually what happens in threads in order to simplify the arguments and discussion and still keep it interesting and learn something. Complex situations introduce harder to handle conditions. Most generalized problems in science are harder to solve also without a true breakthrough in thinking. This is why people focus until then in more well defined restricted problems.


Are you in effect trying to see what happens if we have anywhere from 0 to 100% chance to lose earth and what happens also if we have 0-100% chance to lose all solar system? Are you trying to see how we behave if there is something that can be done to save earth even? You need to define the situation a lot more to see what you want here.

I didnt try to talk about a generalized problem because its a lot harder to deal with. Try it (if we cant agree on simple restricted cases what chance we have in more complex ones?).


For me any risk to lose life that is up there in the 1% range is a serious motivation to alter society. For others its not and only a 100% risk can unite us at best in urgency.

Now are you also possibly asking how to respond to a risk that is 100% if we do nothing and can become much less, even 0, if we did something? Example some 100-200 km asteroid is something that still destroys life by resetting the mantle/crust but now we could do something about it which however still requires a ton of effort (its not easy to deflect without monumental projects but now if successful earth is saved. But notice then we violate OP conditions of losing earth).


It is very hard to model an in between system.


Define better what the catastrophe is like and it may become possible. This is why the thread took the direction it did.

The other simple direction it can take is the 100% life ends direction without solutions other than panspermia. Then how to live the last 20 years without collapsing is a tough problem also because of motivation issues. The sensible thing again is to rise the standard of living by using all resources in order to go out in style after living extravagantly and design a society around the celebration of existence for these last 20 years. The project becomes the improvement of the experience in order to avoid the collapse i fear. You need to find a way to motivate with tangible fast rewards people that have an expiration enforced on them

In all those cases you need a motivating reason for society to not unravel.

Generally, when ideology and reality are opposed, it is pretty easy to tell which one is incorrect. You, sir, have picked the wrong species to fit your ideas.

Masque, in this hypothetical scenario, do you assume you get to go to Mars? What if the government serves you a notice telling you that you're stuck dying here? Are you working the rest of your waking hours?

Assume it's earth only, as you had prior.

For example - if there's a 50% chance we can prevent [an asteroid from hitting Earth], how much do we expend working toward deflecting / otherwise preventing the asteroid, during the next 20 years?

How much do we put toward moving to mars? Do we forgo Earth completely and put all gears toward migrating, or put all of our efforts to preserve the rock we live on, with little to no effort going toward migration?

Lets stay on track with the terms of OP.

Earth gone.

No imformation on how the rest of the Solar System would be affected.

I was being sarcastic but nonetheless, trying to be 'realistic' (if there is such thing as a 'realistic opinion') is not necessarily conducive to progress, and more often than not, it turns out to be pessimism masked as 'realism'.

Of course not, i wouldnt mind, its not a condition that i would go. I wouldnt likely be a very good choice 20 years from now (although i would try my best to be)(probably only very young 15-30 excellent health and education/intelligence/Mars trained individuals at time of departure and then world class specialists scientists and technicians, world class educators and the very top people of each field, regardless of age who also pass basic training test, should be part of the 1 mil+ minimum team. You may even add to that some random part of the population in some small say 5% participation level in order to have a decent representation of all people in that subgroup for a variety of reasons, so that it doesnt pass as an elitist society but the skills/health/training and age are really necessary to maximize the chance of survival there). I would probably not be included unless the project succeeded to move a lot of people beyond that 1-10 mil mark i view as necessary minimum for society to be self sustainable. I dont mind working under reasonable pace conditions towards that goal with nothing else given to me other than food, education and basic entertainment and a home to stay if it came down to it.

The reward that life, not just mankind and our culture/civilization/knowledge/technology, would not perish, is enough for me to die very happy. Take that to mean also that even if only panspermia using proper http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extremophile microbes missions, but within a well researched and executed plan (without any humans or higher forms of life sent for obvious reasons of unreasonable success probability to support them), was the only available final solution, i would still work for it imagining that eventually life would find a way in a new system. This is not some idealist bs that in reality fails when it comes down to the actual thing. I do indeed see this as very important and a reason to be happy i made a difference together with others.


A beautiful way to die is not a trivial thing. But in this case it would be also a beautiful way to live even if only for 20 more years. It is a very rare gift to be able to look yourself in the mirror and think you were part of something important. To be recognized for it is not even important to me. I do believe in a free society where people gain benefits of personal value through their own efforts and thus on occasion competitively may rise above a standard minimum available to all citizens, but a life of purpose is also its own reward and motivation. Too many people in history have sacrificed so much more to give us so much less than that. It would be a privilege to be part of such effort, not at all a nuisance. In fact how such plan is executed so that people are happy to participate under very good working conditions is essential to its success. People must work in things they like and find value to participate for something to have a decent chance of success.



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Non free will signature. 2+2 community, BruceZ, 2+2 leaders etc, all with your choices give back BruceZ and others you "chased" away to this discussion and the ones that will follow. We are all in this interactions learning game together.

Mass/total participation in the project cannot be taken as a automatic given. Any attempt to do so is plainly irrational. Due to the massive and mostly unseen complexity of human interaction in the production of tangible things (see Milton Freidman quote below)

The numbers of people required would be huge. In the hundreds of millions I would guess. These people spread across the world would have to work in a degrading environment (probably law and order breakdown / food & material supply problems) These are people mining Iron Ore, Rubber, Plastics, Copper, Chemicals, etc. etc. and the People that move this from point A to B The people that maintain the machinery required etc. etc. And all this would have to carried out with a large if not significant majority of people on earth being outside the project, and the faint hope if gives.

Milton Friedman: Look at this lead pencil. There is not a single person in the world who could make this pencil. Remarkable statement? Not at all. The wood comes from a tree cut down in the state of Washington, cut with a saw made of steel. To make that steel it took iron ore. This black center, which we call lead, is really graphite, and comes from some mines in South America. The eraser, a bit of rubber, comes from Malaya, where rubber isn't even native. It was imported from South America by businessmen. This brass ferrule, I haven't the slightest idea where it comes from, or the yellow paint it is coated with, or the glue that holds it all together. Literally thousands of people co-operated to make this pencil.

And that is a Pencil....... not the most advanced spacecraft in history.

But the project is exactly what gives jobs to people in order to live and not enter a chaos/collapsed society. The people even if they do not care about something massively important as preservation of life and culture they still need to have a society that can give them food and keep the law (but i cannot begin to imagine who are these people that do not care about being human and life in general, are we living in the same planet watching the same movies and art and went to same schools?).

Yes 90% of people may care only to survive themselves (noway i buy this though if the project is properly designed/marketed) but they need f@cking jobs and food for this.

I have already talked about how you need to develop compact technology on Martian society with very organized general scope adaptable, compact, 3d printing (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3D_printing) type factories (that create even their own parts) that would minimize how many parts you need from very different places. You can do that with fusion backing your energy needs. And this is why you need over 1 mil there to keep things from collapsing there until it starts growing there.


The majority of jobs would collapse if the world had an expiration and no projects. What would these people do to eat and live somewhere? They need law and order. This is all provided by the mega project in place. People go to work like they did before and they enjoy cheap goods everywhere. It is also very important for any project to succeed to have a gradual rise of standard of living for people to remain motivated and not start being demoralized and suicidal. (so its important to not go to military strict prison like totalitarian system at all costs or it will fail)

I cannot even begin to imagine why this isnt a crystal clear solution when the alternative is to die in 5-10 years not even the full 20. If the world goes to irrational mode with only 5-10% getting what needs to be done i can assure you the scientists, military and governments (that all need order to survive) will create a virus (or 10 of them working together to make ebola a joke), to kill the population as soon as possible in order for the rest to do what is needed. Antivirus medicine only to those that join the project and it requires even future upgrade if the person revolts. It will get that ugly! It doesnt have to. Because already 10-30% would happily recognize the value of it both for life preservation but also personal selfish reasons. If a Hitler style regime is what it takes to prevent the loss of life so be it. We (they) will recover all freedoms once on Mars and are free again to create a proper world like it used to be minus the bs.

Yes 3D printing is the panacea you need to make your argument work. Luckily life on Mars doesn't need parts bigger than 12 inches square. And made from anything stronger than relatively low grade plastic. And where does the plastic to feed these printers come from?

3D printing is already starting to use materials that are interesting with proper properties to allow for strength and complexity and even circuit building which is the ultimate focus because chip technology factories on Mars will be our ultimate challenge. In 20 years it can go places because it will be a top 10% type focus of the project itself (so this is how new jobs are created by trying to develop that technology together with fusion, rockets, fuel for rockets, extraction or resources even oil,gas rigging and any kind of energy production of fissionable isotopes you can imagine anywhere).

The material you need to feed 3d printing technology on Mars is provided by the ground/ores of Mars itself and chemical factories (smelting etc) there that are themselves very compact by design and special purpose and are made from parts that they are creating themselves or with 3d printing help etc. Basically redesign all technology to need only 10-100 factories rather than millions (which is what capitalism has today).


Do you recognize why i am correct here regarding the project and why it will be so big that it will keep society in order from collapsing? This project will require jobs from all over the planet giving life with proper standard of living to millions of people now in peril or who live month to month under uncertainty. It will have major objectives such as;

0) Basic needs and care met to all people of the planet working in it.

1) Unprecedented urgency fusion technology research to have fusion available within 5-10 years. Continued research on fusion even past that to find the most efficient approach by the end of 20.

2) Material extraction for massive infrastructure build up of future fusion factories but also solar, oil extraction, gas, nuclear fission U,Th etc. Basically massive extraction of all earth resources and energy fossil fuels left. Expect oil extraction to go up 100% all over the world per year for 5 years already to run out of oil and gas within 20y. You no longer care for global warming then or collapsed prices of commodities. This is now a pro tangible benefits society not a pro profit one.

3) materials technology to develop all kind of exotic property materials for the martian society and the spaceships.

4)Massive agriculture and other basic needs industry buildup to create tremendous abundance of goods.

5) Research in Medicine, Biology, Chemistry you name it for various functions needed on Mars.

6) Entertainment industry for all working with intense quality focus to maximize relaxation and boost mood. Whatever that may mean including legalizing drugs, prostitution any kind of controlled vices you can imagine in order to stabilize people if they need it.

7) Research on agriculture to develop plants suited for Mars agriculture and large scale greenhouse society there.

8) Research on protein building artificially to be able to have artificial meat on Mars without the huge need for animals. Probably only chicken and fish can be grown, supported by cultivated crops on Mars for food needs there. Even develop new breed of protein animal source that is very efficient in its growth cycle. The most compact efficient animal with most recyclable waste generated ever may have to be created. The waste may even be designed to be useful to Martian society in other areas ie agriculture or energy.


9,10,..20,...100.. you name it keep adding ideas.

All those min projects will enable the trip to happen and to be successful on Mars and will give jobs to all humans until then in an era of unprecedented growth across all areas of focus. The fact society no longer works for profit but for basic needs availability to all of the population and very ambitious technological buildup is what maintains the order.


You cannot do that project with horrible working conditions or torturous efforts. It has to be as tolerable and enjoyable as possible or it will fail because it needs hundreds of millions to be involved in it.


Bottom line all jobs that are of tangible direct benefit to society still remain as they are and are further enhanced even.

Time to recognize how much capitalism (which previously worked well but now is saturated and prohibitively stalling, acting against true high tech progress by demanding it is directly and near term profitable for power centers or anyone developing it) has forced us to take for granted mediocre pace of progress through systems/institutions/approaches that are holding back progress in terms of basic standard of living for all because they would collapse profits for many in power.

There is nothing pessimistic about the fact that people are both social/cooperative and individualistic/competitive and also highly adaptive.

Properly done, philosophy seeks out the conditions in which people best thrive; it does not seek out people which would best thrive under a philosophy.

I agree, but people are also that which they're told to be. Very few comprise the rebellious snow flakes and the average is largely comprised of risk-averse individuals. This is why (at least in first-world countries) most settle for the secure option of employment (one may argue 'modern-day slavery'), as opposed to entrepreneurship and self-employment. Most individuals will live the risk-averse life of their their parents and grandparents, and hold onto almost the same values as their parents and grandparents.

To this proscription, it's not always the philosophy that's particularly important, but simply the way that power is exercised (preferably without force) in effectively filtering through to people's ethos.

I like the thought, however morose, that if we knew the end was near and we would all perish along with Earth and the solar system, that we might send out several hundred small "spore" ships toward planets orbiting other planets we had identified possibly capable of harboring life. Even if the ships only carried bacteria or other simple "seeds" there's hope earth life survives and evolves again!

I guess one worry could be that life had already begun on some of those planets and that, ironically, our bacteria wipes it out, oops. Probably not though. Any life that evolves on a host planet is likely much more suited for that environment than our seedlings.

Most people chose to have satisfy one boss at a time (employment) rather than having to satisfy many bosses (entrepreneurship) for their lunch. I've done both, and the second is not a cure to all that ails.

In fact, whatever you chose, you find yourself waking up each day working for the VeeDDzz corporation no matter who your customer is.

Unless mommy and daddy are telling you that you have to run the family farm, you are as free as a bird. Even if they are telling you that, the door to the cage isn't locked.

I don't think that those who would send out ships would be fought too severely.

What is more interesting is the results if most humans were snuffed out and only the bunker people survived.

Depending on your values and risk-aversion, you may not even see that there is a door there to begin with.

In a risk-averse populace, whatever the philosophical ethos may be, people will continue to do as they're told. Some won't, but the majority will - take North Korea as an extreme example. In a risk-averse populace, the philosophical ethos - regardless of how detached from human nature - is not as important as its method of delivery.

But if you're aiming for progress, then it becomes very important. As such, ideological philosophy should not be judged in a negative light for failing to accurately capture the behavior of the 'majority/average' but rather praised for it's noble goal of aiming to bump up the 'average' and improve on it.

People don't choose optimism over pessimism because it's a more accurate perception of the world, but rather, because it bumps up and improves on their own world. In the same vein, I don't believe in the existence of a 'realistic opinion' or 'realistic philosophy'. There is only evidence (which may be said to be realistic) and anything beyond evidence, including its interpretation is inherently going to be either pessimistic or optimistic. Choose one, and avoid the word 'realistic' if possible.

Do you believe that people can fly by flapping their arms if they are sufficiently optimistic?

People can't fly by flapping their arms - yet - but with enough ideology perhaps one day they will be able to. Much like people couldn't fly at all - once - but with enough ideology and optimism, they are now able to fly across countries in just hours.

However, if everyone sat around talking about how unrealistic it is to get across countries in a few hours, we'd still be talking about how unrealistic it is. The effects of optimism are not always instant.

They could fly in Titan lol! Or at least its gonna be close! 1.5x atmospheric pressure and still 1/7 or whatever the weight. So all you need is a big fly/dive suit (wingsuit?) like those wearing when they drop from airplanes instead of parachute .



Titan would be another target by the way but its far colder there and there is tons of CH4 and other hydrocarbons but unless you can get some O2 to burn it also its worthless as energy source it would seem.

Lurking this forum, as rarely and far between occasions as I do, still does not spare me of masque's agenda that he pushes so rabidly in as many threads as he sees fit, some that don't ever hint to that subject.

random poster:"Hey, guys, is abortion morally wrong or there isn't such a thing as morality?"

masque be like "well, abortion might be wrong because it would deprive this world of a soul which could probably work 12 hours a day given sex for 30 minutes a day (if not married*) and quality meals such that he fulfills some bull**** utopia and research and technological innovation and mars and 3d printing and fusion habla habla dubla dibla dee"

All of this spread on (sometimes) pages of endless ravings. I hold on to a dear thought that no one actually reads through all of your posts. And it still puzzles me if people take you seriously or just humor you. This will not make you stop, I know, you are delusional. I wonder if you ever stop and read what you're typing, most things are lolwat.

"whoever doesnt like it and wants to party to suicide endgame kill them right away and be done with one more loser out" this... my, oh my... you are a very weird dude.

You obviously have never had people under your charge, employees. No grasp on how things really are, on human psychology. If your utopia would ever come close to reality, I'm going to be the guy that molotovs your working camps and spray paints "REVOLUTION" with his buddies on your HQ's. In all seriousness, your views and perceptions are ridiculous and this has been said by others in the thread already.

And also, you missed OP's 2nd premise, "let's say this calamity is 100% certain to happen and 100% impossible to prevent". Should I bold the thing after "and"? Just goes to show how blindly you go takatakatakata to push your absurd ideology.

*as if married couples get sex

heh...I'll spraypaint with you homie.

I will give him this, he at the very least reads responses and adapts his visions based on them, last post he caved and gave all of us the hookers and blow we wanted to workworkwork.

before it was all just intrinsic rewards to save rich people...so there's that!

he did finally pull the trump card he's been alluding to and go with, "well they'll just make a virus and only give the antibodies to the workers"...lol

nothing wrong with optimism. assumed optimism in every human (or at least a high enough % to get all this done) seems foolish.

when I gave my friend IRL this hypothetical yday, he too said that work would need to be heavily incentivized or mandatory bc he'd want to live his last 20 years how HE wanted to.

and he had children.

Sure there's a lot of optimism in Masque's posts but at least he's outlined a viable scenario in which a lot could be accomplished over 20 years. All you've done is attack him without providing any viable alternatives: apart from 'giving-up'. You should be thankful there are people like Masque out there because they're the ones attempting and doing all the things that you'd refer to as 'unrealistic' and 'impossible'.

More importantly, you seem to believe that there is such a thing as a realistic opinion when it comes to hypotheticals likes this. The fact that you infer that in your posts tells a lot more than the actual content of your posts.

Just look at some of the gibberish spewed.

"Unprecedented urgency fusion technology research to have fusion available within 5-10 years". You think urgency is what stops fusion technology from happening? Innovations and advances in science don't work like that, boyo. You imagine the briefing among scientists like this "Uhm, so yeah guys, we have 20 years before we kick the bucket, any astoundingly brilliant ideas and work you might have held back until now must be shared asap, ples, for the cumon good."

"3) materials technology to develop all kind of exotic property materials for the martian society and the spaceships." yep, this stuff also lies in some dude's brain, but he procrastinates so he can wank to hd porn ofc, instead of developing a material that could make him billions of dollars.

"4)Massive agriculture and other basic needs industry buildup to create tremendous abundance of goods." also from the series of things we have lying around, but don't feel like exploiting just yet, 'cause everyone knows everyone hates money.

I lol'd at "6) Entertainment industry for all working with intense quality focus to maximize relaxation and boost mood. Whatever that may mean including legalizing drugs, prostitution any kind of controlled vices you can imagine in order to stabilize people if they need it."

It's a well known fact that people turn to prostitutes and cocaine to "stabilize" themselves after a hard day's work. Cocaine addicts and womanizers are basically the epitome of stability. Pot also world renowned for making people productive.

8 is by far the most outrageous claim "The most compact efficient animal with most recyclable waste generated ever may have to be created."

I like myself some "animal creating" from time to time also. The "may" is just delicious. We're so kewl that we have the creation of the optimal food source as an option, as a if-all-else-fails.

"and very ambitious technological buildup is what maintains the order."

good luck maintaining the order in a society comprised of individuals that have been spoon fed dope, coke, acid w/e and hookers to chill out after 12 hours a day work FOR 20 YEARS. Jesus criminy...

Who provides the "quality female companionship" ? The quality meals? You expect high tier hookers to take one for the team, be it even the biggest one, humanity? Will they be shot if they don't spread? You are depicting a more depressive society than the one we are currently living in.

Oh, and I doubt history will be forgiving with your murders of anyone who just says meh and doesn't want to chime in.