Here is a random maths/proba question :

Powerball jackpot is getting to 650 M$. Ticket cost 2$ and there is just under 1 in 300M to hit top-prize. Which would make this slightly EV+ ! (or not)

However, we have to take taxes into account, damn 30%, but on the other hand there is also the second and following prizes, which give a small boost (how much ?).

I guess we would also need to consider that there is a high (?) chance the top prize will be split.

650M$ is then probably still EV-, but we are getting closer ! Question then, at what figure does it become EV0 ?

Happy birthday everyone!!!


https://youtu.be/SJUhlRoBL8M

Visible from hundreds of miles away!


Full of himself? Noway. These quotes are from Bhagavad Gita https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhagavad_Gita. They are of course the ultimate perfect descriptor of what a nuclear explosion is about 2700 years before it ever took place.

"Observers such as Nobel Prize-winning physicist Luis Alvarez have suggested that if he had lived long enough to see his predictions substantiated by experiment, Oppenheimer might have won a Nobel Prize for his work on gravitational collapse, concerning neutron stars and black holes.[56][57] In retrospect, some physicists and historians consider this to be his most important contribution, though it was not taken up by other scientists in his own lifetime.[58] The physicist and historian Abraham Pais once asked Oppenheimer what he considered to be his most important scientific contributions; Oppenheimer cited his work on electrons and positrons, not his work on gravitational contraction.[59] Oppenheimer was nominated for the Nobel Prize for physics three times, in 1945, 1951 and 1967, but never won."

His work on gravitational collapse is very important to me. It will be continued if i can deliver it properly and lead to an unbelievable new result (that hopefully CERN can verify one day) about what goes on inside the hole that will finally explain the information loss paradox (it's not lost and it affects the hawking radiation calculation) the only way it makes sense, without string theory or quantum gravity needed.

PS: The collapse properly treated is a topic avoided systematically for decades by the present day big names. They assume it completely unquestionably down to a singularity and nobody tries to put it in books or review papers properly (the exact way it happens). There is a reason of course. The same reason that makes it an audacity to talk about it with conviction at the same time that super nuclear density experiments are still happening with much more left to uncover at CERN (which of course implies we are not in control of all that goes on at this extreme and which can bring havoc to Raychaudhuri equation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raychaudhuri_equation).

Zeno's bunker will not save us (only going inside your bath tub lol). Will save Zeno though and some of the finest beers ever.

Since I've forgotten my password and created a second account, I have honestly not made a single sober post. My mind is sharpest after four IPAs I find. But that isn't the reason I log in; it's just boring logging in here sober. Or logging into anything for that matter.

As for IPAs, I've heard Zeno, LastCard and Chez, bang on about them for ages while admittedly I was ignorant. Now I I wouldn't choose anything else.

All your base are belong to us?

All world conflicts should be fought whereby the leaders of a country step into the ring for a pugilistic bout, while the T&C's are set out beforehand.

masque,
In the end it's just a whole lot of Engrish poetry for a power/rage boner. It's all very childish. Just a bigger version of the time when I discovered as a kid that I could use diesel in a backpack pump spray tank to flambe bitey meat ants (you light the mist spray and go walking, it's good fun).

Factoid: Only one man was in Nagasaki and Hiroshima, on the day the bombs fell and lived to tell the tale.

I'm also largely ignorant about beer. Like you, this thread has got me to really like it.

Super ex-sighted for the alternative eclipse tomorrow. Glad!

"J. Robert Oppenheimer was the scientific director of the Manhattan Project, the USA's World War II program to develop the first nuclear weapons. This quote is often attributed to Oppenheimer on the occasion of the first successful nuclear test, the Trinity test in New Mexico in 1945, after which USA President Truman authorized the atomic bombings of the cities Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan, killing well over 200,000 men, women and children. It is not clear whether Oppenheimer used these words at the time of the test or at a later date, but in fact he was recalling and translating the words of Vishnu in the Hindu scripture the Bhagavad-Gita.

In a 1965 television broadcast about the moments following the Trinity test, Oppenheimer said: "We knew the world would not be the same. A few people laughed, a few people cried. Most people were silent. I remembered the line from the Hindu scripture, the Bhagavad-Gita. Vishnu is trying to persuade the Prince that he should do his duty, and, to impress him, takes on his multi-armed form and says, 'Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds.' I suppose we all thought that, one way or another."

J. Robert Oppenheimer (1904-1967) American physicist, known as the "Father of the Atomic Bomb"



Dont focus on the obvious strange way to express that "now i have become death". Maybe its poetic licence to speak in such terms to make a point. As in look now i am "become death", the destroyer of worlds. Like as if someone has to become that when "duty" calls. You cannot possibly think that a top IQ brain cant see the strange way to say i have become. Maybe he doesn't want at all to say that because the text is trying to convey something very different such as the ability of a leader to become those things and force himself to do his "duty" as if its something you can turn off and on. Now i am X. The ability "to become X". Now I am Y, back to the old me. Only in that moment not permanently. As if changing form like Vishnu. I am forced to be other than my natural inclination to be me.


I am become: I have become; I am



In my opinion it's the perfect quote precisely with this kind of wording that looks clumsy. It fully shows what they were forced to participate in 2700 years later than the poem.

Someone that is very good with English language form over the past 100 years can tell us how the language developed in time and if this wording in 1940s is the same as one would say "i have become" or it is precisely as i imagine it and not awkward at all.





Also interview

TS doesn't understand Robert Oppenheimer? Shocking.

You can only go so far with the lionization of Robert Oppenheimer. He was the instrument of a destructive force that mankind could have well done without. Ready or not, the necessities of a high moral character have devolved upon mankind through this science and we can only hope for a proper future.

Its incorrect to believe that the evolutionary movement of mankind is always in the positive direction but this is not so; Man can be ensconced within crass destructive and decadent forces at any time and for long periods of time for he walks along the abyss, unknowingly.

For many reasons hegemony was placed within the USA, properly, and I can only hope that we are up to the task. This should not be a moment of exultation but an embrace of a humbling responsibility.

The Wikipedia reference displayed an individual who led a troubled life and there is always the question as to whether anyone else could have held his post and the results been the same. I can only say that in this era of easy replacement of not only razor blades, cars and men that he was the unique individual and we see his works.

Our facile belief that a leader or man can be replaced by one with the same credentials, so to speak, is fraught with error . The classic example is the replacement of John F. Kennedy by Lyndon Johnson which placed our country on a course which, arguably, was certainly a major change in direction.

I am in no way an Oppenheimer advocate but certainly to reference the Bhagavad Gita , which curiously is the ancient beginnings of men in war and strife is strange ; Oppenheimer and the nuclear science just happen to have put the period to this .

The moral tone of the Gita stands out as Arjuna cannot see the purpose of this war advocated by Krishna;


Sloka
1.27
Then he, the son of Kunti, seeing all those kinsmen stationed in their ranks, spoke thus sorrowfully, filled with deep compassion.

स्ने

Sloka
1.28
Arjuna said:Seeing, O Krishna, these my kinsmen gathered here, eager for fight,


Sloka
1.29
my limbs fail me, and my mouth is parched up. I shiver all over, and my hair stands on end. The bow Gândiva slips from my hand, and my skin burns. 29


Sloka
1.30
Neither, O Keshava, can I stand upright. My mind is in a whirl. And I see adverse omens.


Sloka
1.31
Neither, O Krishna, do I see any good in killing these my own people in battle. I desire neither victory nor empire, nor yet pleasure.


Sloka
1.32
Of what avail is dominion to us, of what avail are pleasures and even life, if these, O Govinda!



Sloka
1.33
for whose sake it is desired that empire, enjoyment and pleasure should be ours, themselves stand here in battle, having renounced life and wealth—


Sloka
1.33
Teachers, uncles, sons and also grandfathers, maternal uncles, fathers-in-law, grandsons, brothers-in-law, besides other kinsmen.



Sloka
1.35
Even though these were to kill me, O slayer of Madhu, I could not wish to kill them, not even for the sake of dominion over the three worlds, how much less for the sake of the earth!



Sloka
1.36
What pleasure indeed could be ours, O Jnanârdana, from killing these sons of Dhritarâshtra? Sin only could take hold of us by the slaying of these felons. 36


Sloka
1.37
Therefore ought we not to kill our kindred, the sons of Dhritarâshtra. For how could we, O Mâdhava, gain happiness by the slaying of our own kinsmen?

etc,...

Reading the Bhagavad Gita and taking it seriously is almost as warped as licking a public toilet seat at a pub in the East End.

My wine is delivered daily by Dionysus using a wooden chariot with wheels made of grape vines.

Seems like a ping pong match

I'd like to make an announcement but I can't tell you what it is because that would give it away.


PairTheBoard

I never learned to play golf:

It becomes +ev once it seems more fun bet than what you would have spent the $2 on otherwise.

You don't understand that I'm gently ribbing masque? Shocking.

The quote is perfect and I was about as taken as masque is with when I was 12.

I enjoy it when low verbal intelligence meets high spatial intelligence. It makes for a good time. The reverse is less entertaining for some reason.

Never forget how you were at 12. You can only improve it, remove naivete and offer realism but dont betray its intentions.

The ability of an animal to "cry" for the right reasons is directly related to their intellect. In my opinion very strong people mostly only cry that way after a certain age (not because of other losses) because they get the glory and tragedy of it all. And you can never ignore that. Of course the point of life is wisdom itself.

AI will not be very interested in why we laugh (trivially obvious) but will find it very intriguing when we can cry in the absence of external violence or loss.

That quote is one that can haunt forever super intelligent AI actually. It will get it 100% and consider it the ultimate message. " to become the destroyer of worlds".

I think i appreciate that quote and the possibilities of interpretation more today than when i was 12.

Probably never for almost all people unless the number of tickets sold eventually reaches asymptotically a limit per drawing when the jackpot gets to unreal levels. We need to know how the number of tickets per drawing cycle grows with the jackpot.

We can probably least squares model that from past data and get to that projected jackpot when you play. Then from there calculate the instant one time payment minus taxes and the expected proceeds after calculating how many other winners will occur on average when we win. All these can be obtained by getting the number of tickets completed from the projection above plus the probability of 0 other winners, 1, 2, 3 etc. (some Poisson type result distribution likely with avg the expected number of total tickets times probability to win per ticket.).

You probably get only 35% of the total prize/#winners after taxes and rejection of annuity option.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Powerball


Basically it gets insanely difficult because it is one of the worse games of gambling ever invented lol a true rape if it weren't for the programs it serves. The only EV is the dream itself.


Let me just put it this way. The EV is locally almost never positive. But in reality for some people it is positive always.

The EV for me and all kinds of other people with financial markets experience is super positive at any time i play it.

The reason is simple. I can in principle enjoy a better result by simply getting $2 and then going to any casino playing blackjack all in every round until reaching $200 and then going to poker tables and $200 1/2 game and then all the way to $1000, then taking money to stock market and buying options on buy signal all in every time and then after reaching 10 mil starting to do the same with other derivatives or IPOs of promising companies or whatever, something that would take months at the very least if it never failed to double per bet. That is a plus EV bet in the long run if you know what you are doing and take your time although risky reckless. It is much better than the lottery in probability to reach say 1 bil. However no reasonable person that did all this would ever continue past say 100k or 1 mil or even 10 mil because its moronic when you have exceeded all your wealth or annual earnings to continue to risk like that. Therefore you would never manage to win so fast 100-200 mil or whatever. You would never allow yourself to bet 100 mil say to go to 200 even with 55% because its a ridiculous choice if unhedged. And so the lottery is the only way for this to realistically happen so fast ie right now get 200 mil.

Now although the result is typically very negative EV locally judged, it is still plus EV for someone that knows how to invest money and grow it when its substantial. You can easily enjoy 10-15% results per year in many investment ideas and business plans. Even building homes and renting them or reselling them, buying depressed value real estate, fixing it and reselling it, etc or creating solar panel farms or whatever like that will eventually see such returns over time. Investing carefully in IPOS and even before IPO level similarly. Even stock market is 7-8% historically and can be improved with various methods.

So within 20 years of winning it would have proven plus EV typically because the present value of winning (given what you will eventually do with it) is many times that of the actual cash value received if you know how to use such vast amounts of money. Some will claim this is not true but they simply are not imaginative enough. A great deal of very successful enterprises and angel investing enjoy such growths.

So forget about how stupid the EV is locally and think that its the only way for anyone to win right away such amount of money. And that such result in the right hands is always plus EV no matter how stupid the actual local EV seems.

^^ watching 2p2ers trying to talk sensibly about EV calculations is always entertaining.