Are you talking about this?

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/...659155419?mt=2

Yes. I assume that it is a Philosophy 101 level discussion which works well for me.

Cragganmore 12-yr old speyside single malt. I purchased some at Christmas. Highly recommend. Well balanced and easy on the pocket book for the quality of the spirits. Not overpowering with blend of smokiness, peaty and with hints of citrus in the smooth finish. Or so it seems. I could have been dreaming.

https://www.thewhiskyexchange.com/P-1483.aspx

+1
It's a good idea to keep that in mind routinely IMO, as everyone is a potential individual interpreter. Acting as idea interpreter is one way to practice philosophy,; to explore and expand upon existing defined ideas.

The problem with philosophy is it's endlessly repeatable and iterative; it is selves defining gestalts when, really, they themselves describe their relationships to the gestalt.

It puts food on tables and gets the wife drunk however.

Arsenal is now atop the Premier League, again.

The NFL playoffs begin this weekend. Real football for the masses:

NFL-playoff-schedule-2016

Don't miss a game..........

49ers are out, i plan to miss all of them. Hell i even fast forwarded 70% of their games this year and only watched in regular speed the close winning ones near the end, but really in fast forward mode to cut bs commercials and officials talking and timeouts and basically every play stopped is 30sec one FF push opportunity! I only watch in regular speed when near the end-zone on both teams or on some remarkable play that i go back to see in normal speed. I always FF the extra point of the opponent after their cursed TDs or the near inevitable 3pointers. ALWAYS unless they miss, when its party time with endless replays but only if the score is close and its not in vain!

I also FF the opponents offensive runs, especially if the score is bad for 49ers and sometimes in blow up scores i ended FFing at 4 speed all the game past the first 10 min (ending a 4h recording in 3 min of FF video lol) looking only at the top corner of the quickly running screen to see the score digits perform their punishing rituals, hoping the small numbers would magically inflate to halt FF mode's killing spree but usually to no avail.

Who the hell will sit down for 3.5h for a team they dislike to support (like i dont know Sea Hawks or Arizona or whatever in east coast lol) when they even dislike their own these days lol, to watch their fun and games. Only in some rare occasion that you hate a team enough to rally for the opponent, any opponent. I can appreciate baseball better that is not violent/risky but screw even that in all events without my team in them these days or with score real bad. Even on my own European teams when i still FF the bs parts eg in soccer/basketball when the ball is out or fouls or the keeper getting ready etc. Up theirs, play faster lol.

I probably will watch in normal speed 1 in 15-20 events i record in all sports and only if i am eating a meal at the same time. I FF even Warriors games unless its close or they are leading and still FF the commercials. I never watch anything that is not important live and even the important ones i watch with 10-20 min delay between documentaries or cooking or multitasking (never when studying/reading/calculating) so that i can FF the bs commercials and timeouts. Then back at live switch to another activity to buy another 20 min of FF access mode. Unfortunately there is not yet a real FF button for spacetime reality but i am working on it.

Sorry guys i am bad. Posting long posts you might not read is more interesting some times than watching these endless game rituals that waste time without anything happening. I learn something that way. In fact i have written many posts while the play is on live because i will never allow myself to watch a game that way for 3-4 hours. Its impossible. You can always turn and rewind to see in normal speed some interesting play. I AM BAD!

That said i will of course record and preserve for an eternity some rare heart of the champion sporting moments from any team when destiny was stopped, when the rise from an abyss became possible by giants that stood up and declared NO we wont allow you to ff our game! Respect is due! We will punish any attempt to trivialize our struggle, to leave the match, to change the channel! We will earn pause and slow motion and a place in the hard drive in both Full HD and compact SD mode forever! The cloud would have to be expanded for us!

Some people shouldn't be allowed anywhere near TV controls.

Even their own at a time nobody else is also watching? What do you do when your team is 31-6 down and there is 2h still recorded and you know the game is over by now. Do you still continue to watch like a masochist the shaming of your team or do you FF fast until suddenly 31-20 happens with 5% chance and then happily watch the last 2 TDs and continue from there? The other 95% of the time it would have been 45-9 lol. What is the point to watch something that is so sad?

Most importantly what is the point to watch ads and timeouts and officials reviewing a play to punish your team or to leave it short of losing anyway in one more play near the end-zone. Big decision, will we be at 31-3 down or 24-3 down with 47% chance to be 31-3 anyway or 47% to be 27-3 and 6% for a miracle to recover the ball. Lose-lose or lose later lol, only winner is your time saved here!!!

I don't know about you guys, but I watch for the tight pants.

How do you figure out the % chance of lottery being hit? If they say there are 175 million combinations of numbers and 400 million tickets are sold.

Well you could claim that each number is a random attempt to hit the 1 in 175 mil probability (if you are talking about powerball its 1 in 292 mil though).

Then the chance that nobody hit it is like (1-1/175 mil)^400 mil~10%.

Since 75% of tickets they claim are computer generated, assuming the computers are not following any pattern and are drawing properly at random each time, this is a reasonable guess above even if the other 25% of people put their own numbers and tend to repeat or avoid certain numbers more than others.


For the powerball that just happened if it was 405 mil tickets (my guess based on the number of powerball number only winners 10.58 mil since 64C5/69c5*1/26*N=10.58 mil => N~405 mil) the chance is

(1-1/(292*10^6))^(405*10^6)~25% that you will need more drawings for the jackpot.

More likely you get something like 1-2 winners on avg if these numbers are accurate.

But i see in recent link i checked (http://www.powerball.com/powerball/p...er_summary.asp) that they still didnt get a winner which is rare and it will skyrocket the jackpot to 1.5-2 bil by the next drawing, making it the single most profitable jackpot in history because all that played now and maybe as many more will join next drawing. So maybe they get another 600 mil tickets at least that will take it to 1.5 bil likely. At that point it is also a plus EV lottery (which is very rare to happen on these type of lotteries).

Not gender specific I take it?

Hey, a nice finely-sculpted pair of glutes knows no gender, like do you even lift?

Is it really going to be +EV? Does this mean I should put all my disposible income and Sklansky bucks on 666666?

Indeed. But we already know that the powerball lottery will be won by some proudly ignorant redneck from some obscure town in Mississippi, that bought a raft of tickets at the local gas station on his way to the local dive to watch a NFL playoff game.

With this in mind, do we increase our EV by choosing a truly obscure number, thereby increasing our chances of scooping the whole pot? IOW, I should not choose 666666, because even though it has an even chance of winning, there will be lots of dummies like me who want that number. I should also stay away from other well-known numbers like Hurley's numbers from Lost, or historic dates.

Just trying to figure out the best way to cash out my IRA.

First investment: Interstellar Taverns, Inc.

Even if the EV was +1000/ticket you still cant put anything significant in it at 1/292 mil which is the only part of the ev that makes it plus. And if a ton play, it may not even be very plus anyway as they keep 30% of the new drawing money i think but the chance of multiple winners skyrockets too. The lottery is the most insane exploitation game from all gambling. They take the money for the jackpot today and claim it as such but they pay that amount only in 30 years otherwise they even pay less like 2/3 of that now. So they have 30 years to invest that money or they keep the difference if you get cash today. So not only it isnt 100% of the money placed at the prizes but you also lose 33% to this bs and another 25-30% for taxes etc. Its plus EV but not by a ton. And can easily become negative again if say 800-1000 mil tickets play or something i think.

Why do they tax the winnings when they have already being taxed at purchase for society as a whole? (i can only indirectly estimate that 30%)

Create a company to play all numbers, spend ~600 mil to do that and see what happens even now at these levels to appreciate how bad it is. Or do the Poisson distribution thing for the avg number of winners and take it from there for a single ticket after adjusting for taxes and the amount they keep as function of the number of tickets played.

Use data from

http://www.powerball.com/powerball/p...er_summary.asp

http://www.calottery.com/play/draw-g...DrawNumber=287

and the other dates to establish their internal numbers.

After taxes in California, if you win, you will get your $2 back.

I think the final answer on this tax topic is something better than 39% or so.

http://finance.zacks.com/tax-lotto-w...rnia-9294.html

They will keep 25% instantly and the rest is when you file properly. If you are not a citizen or not declare your status they keep instantly 30%. If you are citizen but you do not give social security number its 28% and then later the filing etc must happen. If you have social security number/legal resident etc and are not a citizen yet,probably 39% total as you file anyway eventually same as a citizen. Imagine if one claims to be a tourist or any foreigner temporarily located in US lol and then they get taxed also in their own country lol beyond that 30%. I dont know then (good problem to have anyway but you know what i mean, it might be very brutal). What happens to eg foreign poker winners of the big prizes in WSOP for example? Do you know?


Bottom line it appears that you cant avoid a 30-39% cut that is a horrible blow for sure on something that has already been taxed at the creation of the prize because they are not going to put for example more than 15% of what they will receive in tickets this next drawing in the less than jackpot category of prizes or more than 60 % in the jackpot.

You see the jackpot was 950 yesterday at the end with 405 mil tickets bought at 2 each. It was 528 mil the previous drawing and 334 the one before.

Using the number of people that scored 1+1 or just the power-ball number 0+1 one can use combinatorics to find the number of tickets sold that they tend to avoid to give in their official links for some reason (wonder why lol i cant find it directly there and you see it only occasionally on TV reports etc).

So on the move from 528 to 950 yesterday they took 405*2 minus expenses for vendors and process/ equipment that i doubt its that big and that is say 810 mil minus the expenses. But the prices they gave back were 117 million in the non jackpot part. The jackpot increase was 422 mil. So where is that other 810-117-422=271 mil going? Like hell this is all expenses. I doubt its even 25% of that which is expenses. The other 75% is of course kept for other legitimate functions that the lottery always ought to support or other tasks related to its operation/sustainability etc (i think state education programs etc, correct me if i am wrong and i miss something, i doubt it though).

So they keep this 271 mil from what goes back to people. But its not only that. They also never pay the jackpot in full, although they have allocated the money for it in there (the way they claim it). They would only pay say 6/9 or 5.5/9 i think in full cash award (the rest only in annual payments but of course imagine giving someone 950 mil to pay you in 30 years what they can do with it until then to generate so much more. They can put it in the safest possible instrument all over the best countries of the planet and earn at least what 2%/year which is easily 50% more money by then if one chose that option?).

So you only get 60% of the jackpot paid in one sum. What happens to the other 40%???? Who takes that??? Seriously 40%, where is this going??? Do they keep for education etc in the end 55% of all sales? That is fine with me if so (it is supposed to be the main reason to have a lottery anyway) but damn it, declare it somewhere and be proud of it, dont play with numbers in my opinion in evasive and confusing ways as if trying to hide the truth.

Are you kidding me then to want to also tax it after that? So not only you only get a fraction of the total ticket sales to go there (explain the 271 missing at first level) but you also never pay another 40% of it (ie money they already have in their pocket supposedly allocated for the jackpot). And then the taxation takes another 39% or at best 30% depending on various details.

So basically my question is this?

WTF is this scheme? Why is taxation even taking place after all this prior shaving?

I regret to inform you that unless i made a mistake in that other thread here

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25...rball-1580576/

the game is still negative EV to play (unlike what i thought earlier moreover the fact it will be the largest jackpot ever) after taxes and the fact they only pay you 60% of the jackpot at hand is taken into account. Plus of course the fact that another 400-700 mil tickets can be sold next drawing will make it even less than 50% in EV lol (it opens the door to many winners on avg).

Wow just wow on how bad it still is. The $2 price (used to be 1) and the 1/292 mil probability (used to be larger) are hard obstacles. So the new record is an illusion.

People love the illusion, they will trek for miles in oven-like heat with no water to chase that lovely, ever-retreating mirage on the horizon. Heck, its only two bucks and what a payout!!!