LONG POST, CLIFFNOTES AT END
has anybody heard about and directly solved the "alien extinction problem"? it's one of those typical "the setup is everything" kinda riddles and i got to the correct setup, but then couldn't solve the stupid equation that i ended up with.
i looked EVERYWHERE to get a step by step explanation of how to get to the roots and none of the sites i found would give me one for free (one site would but i had to pay for it, which is stupid). they just gave me a million different ways to EXPRESS the problem, which didn't help.
so the problem, if you haven't heard it, is that there's 1 alien. every day, one of 4 equally likely things happen. either a) he dies, b) nothing happens and there's still 1 alien, c) he duplicates himself, so there's 2 aliens, or d) he triples himself and there's 3 aliens.
so the question is, what is the probability that the alien race dies out starting from that one alien?
the setup is pretty standard where we get P(alien dies out) = 1/4*the events in terms of P (i started out with P(alien doesn't die out) but that proved to be clunky so i switched it to P(alien dies out)). so the first event is just a 1 (100% aliens die out. 2nd event is just P (probability that aliens die out since nothing changed). 3rd event is P^2 (first alien has to die out and second alien has to die out). 4th event is P^3 (now 1 and 2 and 3 all have to die out).
so we get P = 25%*(1+P+P^2+P^3). now i tried rearranging this into a bunch of different ways to try to get something like 0 = some stuff to see the roots, and i couldn't do it (after much trying i gave up and found looked up the answers/roots and STILL COULDN'T figure out how to get from this equation to the roots).
here's what i did initially:
if we do it out we get P = .25 + .25P+.25P^2+.25P^3
we can subtract P and get: 0=.25-.75P+.25P^2+.25P^3
i then tried to figure out a way to get the 3 P terms into one of those foiling situations (a+b)(c+d) etc. i first divided by .25 to clear everything up and i got:
0 = 1-3P+P^2+P^3, which setup better is P^3+P^2-3P+1=0. and i still couldn't get this into a foiling situation so i tried to get a subset into a foiling situation (P^2-3P+1).
(P-3P)(P+0): P^2+ P-3p^2+0. then i tried:
(P^2-3P)(1+0): P^2+0-3P+0 = P^2-3P, which is close but we're missing the one.
0= P^2-3P would give us P=3, but that's only for one set of the equation (we still have P^3 to deal with and the other powers of P lol), and it would mess up the equation above without the 1.
so back to P^3+P^2-3P+1=0, and i'm out of ideas. i tried then just substituting a few numbers, starting with 1 ofc and 1 worked lol. i tried a few others but none satisfied the equation, nor gave me a logical pattern as to where to look if i didn't know the answer.
1+1-3+1=0. so we know 1 is a root, but that's not the solution (b/c i know the answer is 41.4% or Sqrt(2)-1, but also b/c we should know that it's not possible that the alien dies EVERY time in a situation where he triples himself 1/4 of the time, doubles himself 1/4 of the time and stays himself 1/4 of the time). and the answer has to be a clean kind of expression to get Sqrt(2)-1 as the correct root.
out of desperation i then tried newton's root finding method. that is:
xn+1 = xn+f(xn)/f'(xn)
i started with 0.5 and it just got bigger (i got for xn=0.5, xn+1=0.6), so i tried 2 and it got bigger again (xn=2, xn+1=2.5833333). so i gave up (i'd thought that newtons method gets you closer to the root each time but these two didn't get me closer to what i knew was the answer (.414), so i was either doing something wrong and was too tired/stupid to figure out what, or that method doesn't work here, either way at that point i just gave up).
i thought maybe i'd sleep on it for a bit, but that didn't work, so here you go lol. how do i get the answer to this problem??
CLIFFNOTES:
Quote:
long story short, how do i factor this stupid equation (or use something like newton's root finding method) to get ALL THREE roots of:
P^3+P^2-3P+1=0