Yes the point may also be that you are your job ie you work for yourself and are also insured. If you are employed by people that can fire you of course then you need to be careful but then again there is one kind of job that will always pay you if you are educated and that is teaching skills you have which in current decade via internet and mobile technology can become better than a good paying job. That is a back up plan anyone that works must have so that they can never be rendered truly unemployed.

The work on Kelly is not complete in my opinion.

One might also want to develop a strategy that yields a return above a given predetermined target after n trials with maximum probability. Like how do you play to have highest probability to reach >10x your money in 100 trials or before them are over.

How about a strategy that yields maximum avg return in all cases luck is less that 2sd bad or worse than 2sd bad in n trials.

But he didnt do that or he would have received the correct rate then.

My point with BTM is that he is constantly critical and heavily sarcastic of others and when he fails to realize what others are doing, suggesting to them to do what they are already doing and then himself doing that thing also wrong there is of course no reason to own any error. Only the others have to, whether its a real or not real error.

Decent people that respect each other are never sarcastic when they disagree with others that have treated them always seriously with respect as the default option in any new opportunity cycle of "debating" or opinion exchanging. They offer improvements to the ideas of others without rejecting them or imagining the worse of it to remain eternally polemic. When a correction is needed they offer it in a friendly manner respecting of the intention and effort of the other side not a little dance around your grave routine.

I am pretty sure that Kelly is "complete." There are even fancy pants extensions to it for non-discrete outcomes.

If you mean it is incomplete because it only maximizes average logarithmic growth and that it has certain requirements for it to work well (large n, etc.), then it is indeed incomplete.

Regarding me, does the fact that screwdrivers aren't hammers also bother you? If you think that thoughts ought to be accepted without question or critique, or that mildly excessive comma use is annoying, or that poorly formed metaphors aren't fun, then I'm not the right tool for you. Being upset by the existence of the screwdriver is not the screwdriver's problem.

I'd like to offer this fun poorly formed metaphor for your enjoyment.




PairTheBoard

It will only be complete if we run out of creative imaginative break out of the lightcone desires.

Sure and one can only hope its good, proper well placed, deserved, useful and ethically appropriate critique and that it works both ways and passes also statistical tests for on purpose critique hypothesis testing.

Maybe the standard approach achieves the same result but we need to investigate if the strategy changes if one wants to maximize the chance a certain target is reached at any point within a given time horizon or number of trials. Also within a certain amount of bad luck assumed.

Soldiers of the truth dont "criticize" other soldiers. Instead with their own example lift them up to a higher ground where a higher level of truth is possible and undeniable by all that honestly were forever soldiers of the truth. Only a better idea can defeat an idea. The better idea should be enough.

The rise of complexity becomes possible because brains inspire other brains to greater levels of clarity. Cooperation is how the better ideas are built. Have enough faith in your good will and intellect that this alone would be enough.

"That thought is wrong/flawed/bat-****-insane" is not even close to a criticism of the person who had the thought.

Of course, not realizing that is true after it has been said is truly stupid even if the person who rejects the idea has skills that would allow the person to stand in for a thrift shop calculator. The need to have been right is a weakness that needs to be stamped out at every opportunity. Please note that this is a proper criticism.

Also, Kelly does what it is meant to do. A formula for the area of a sphere does what it is meant to do. Neither will tell you how long it will take to get from Memphis to Chicago on a train traveling 43mph, but this doesn't make them incomplete for their intended purpose.

Your thinking is so pre advanced Intellect meta human AI .

Kelly opens the door to thinking of how investors should bet to achieve a variety of results based on objective. It opens the door for a broader understanding of what is good for you in terms of portfolio growth or what you call prime utility. What if one wanted to maximize the chance to have a specific target or higher at some point because then something amazing happens if you are there.

If you have one move to make and you need to double, of course you go all in to increase that chance. But what if you had 100 moves to triple and you wanted to maximize the chance to triple. What is the strategy then?


Your mentality is that of a rejectionist almost in all threads, an older at heart person that has been defeated by time and in now cynical and sarcastic. And i invite you to be young again and to dare to imagine what is possible with positive criticism that in the eyes of true intellect embraces also corrective suggestions that are found in the enhancing idea. If one is not in the right direction you do not need to trash their position, you only need to show the merits of another one with evidence. A true visionary embraces, not attacks, the ideas of others and lifts them to unreal success levels corrected, improved or enhanced, because in the end it is about immense confidence in the power of the individual human spirit in each one that participates in the effort, which is the prime most definitive characteristic of western civilization, one which scientific society thoroughly subscribes to and wishes to... improve.

The need to be right when you deserve to be right is elementary important to a proper thinker. You want to be accurate and thoughtful so that you deserve to be right. How else will you be right if its not important to you to take the steps needed to be right in your efforts? The truth is more important than being perceived as right if you find you are wrong. You want to be right but you want more to deserve to be right.

Ask yourself instead how often it is the need to be always critical that defines you at the cost or amazing opportunities. I pity such life choice that instead of taking a bad idea and building it to a more creative and efficient one, it wants to bury it immediately instead, blind to all opportunity. Supremely insecure attitude that thrives on others failing.

jesus, can someone give me cliff notes on which penis wears the best monocle (or is it still undecided), it's hard to keep pace with this thread

Improvement comes from criticism of thoughts and ideas. Stagnation comes from sensitivity to criticism.

Zeno, and it isn't even close. I don't think he has participated here though.

Yes so you think by rejecting one's attempt to expand on Kelly by immediately going back to Kelly original idea finding it complete without realizing that it only opens the door to a broader discussion, is the way to go. And i think the way to go is to try to add to this and prove something in that direction and if you cant do that then bloody encourage it instead and link any relevant info available.

Stagnation is exactly what rejectionism invites. If 2-3 brains interact and expand on each other's ideas something important may be born. But lets have stupid friction instead.

You perceive my dislike of relentless bs rejections in every thread as defense of my ego and you fail to realize i am instead enraged because it is the mother of opportunity loss.

In this thread you failed to realize i recreated the proof for Kelly and you suggested to me to look for Kelly and then produced the wrong growth rate. Why was that aggression and lack of understanding of what i was doing so important? Because criticism of a phantom "problem" was the objective like always. Learn to interact with others as they deserve given how they have treated the universe or get out of their way.

Masque,

You should charge Brian rent for all the space you let him take up in your head.

PairTheBoard