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If a person thinks back on his own life he most probably can see where he received a stupendous blessing against all odds.
Charming -
"Lucky", "miraculous", "against all odds!"...these labels only exist because we live with incomplete information. You wouldn't be surprised to hit your 1-outer if you stacked the deck, would you? No, only when the cards are shuffled!
On the macro scale of big life events, our knowledge is so incomplete that it's silly to make any post hoc probability estimates at all. Once event 'M' has happened, there's basically no reason to believe that P(M) was any less than 1.
This is a silly response. Its not that it isn't true, its just that its the wrong answer to Splendour's conundrum. What you should have said was "good luck interviewing those who havent received what appears in hindsight to have been a wonderful blessing."
Heh, but she covered that base (quote in context):
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If a person thinks back on his own life he most probably can see where he received a stupendous blessing against all odds. If he can't remember one then I bet he has plenty of friends that can verify they had one.
I meant that all the counterexamples are dead, because being alive (I'm nearly positive) would count as a blessing.
