It didn't sound that way to me but this certainly makes more sense but makes the call worse. If he thought he was behind, it was pretty easy to figure out that he didn't have the odds to call. And I think the call is significantly worse considering if he folds, he's still almost guaranteed a November nine spot and if calls and loses, he's in danger of not making it.

I think it's a marginally bad call with 40-50 left (or more) in that tournament and probably marginally bad if there are 7-8 as well. But with 15 left, that call is, as I said, god awful.

**** it, lets gamble bro

That logic is god awful. It doesn't matter what stage of the tournament you're at. Duhamel doesn't fold to cash, which is why he's a mother****ing champion.

Are you leveling? If you are, good one. If your not, my lord, do you even play poker or have any concept of the WSOP and what the November nine means? Obviously not or you wouldn't have made this post. Wow, just wow.

Folding your way to the "November Nine" is terrible.

Jonathan Duhamel > Kelly Kim

Tell us what stakes you play and how big of a winner you are at poker, please.

How in God's name would this be "folding your way to the November 9" when he knew he was a 4-1 dog and called anyways? That makes zero sense. I mean like ZERO. Are you sure your not leveling?

I can tell you stakes and winnings that but it's incredibly irrelevant since you're so incredibly wrong here. I've played all stakes and I've won about 21K in tourneys on Stars. Not a ton considering how many I've played, but I'm a somewhat significant winner nonetheless.

You know that players don't have access to the hole cards, right? He didn't know he was a 4-1 dog.

Yeah but how much did you lose?

did you watch the episode? Duhamel described his thinking. he first thought JJ was the nuts vs Matt. then he thought the guy might have a set but still called with his OESD and pair. Obviously there is a small part of the range that could have been a bluff by Matt but they kinda showed that hand in detail during the last episode and Duhamel's thoughts on it.

1 Million dollars.

He said that he thought he might have a set, not that it was the only possible hand in his range.

Yes, I do. And even if there is a non-zero chance that Matt is bluffing, it's not non-zero by much. He almost never has a worse hand there.

So, yes, this was a situation in which it was a near certainty he could figure out the odds and make the call accordingly. Matt is nearly never bluffing for all the reasons previously stated.

Logic might do you well, flyingrat. Seriously.

Of course it's not the only hand in his range but you do realize that there are many other hands that are not a set that Matt could have that still give Duhamel 10 outs, right? AA is essentially the same hand as a set for Duhamel (except of course a set of queens).

Dude, are you alright?

So you would know more about that Matt queer's bluffing tendencies than the guy who had been playing with him for days?

Yes, actually, I am. Do you dispute that it's highly unlikely that Matt is bluffing? The information we currently have doesn't lend itself to Matt bluffing making any sense. If you want to go into that, we can, but it's pretty clearly stated by a couple people in this thread.

Stay classy FlyingRat.

Men don't cry.

I didn't even see the hand. All I ever said was that playing conservative as you approach the FT is a bad strategy and that Duhamel obviously didn't think "Whatever, I'm a 4-1 dog, I call anyway."

[ ] Duhamel was a 4-1 dog in that spot

I find the whole idea that people want to be like "OMG he can't be that good he totally misplayed this 1 hand I saw on tv" to be pretty funny and pretty clearly full of jealousy.

What's really going on in this thread is that FlyingRat is defending his Canadian BFF Duhamel, logic be damned. If Duhamel was from any other country on the planet he wouldn't give a crap, or waste words trying to defend what everyone else in the world concluded was sketch at best.

can you guys explain to me why it's a fact that Affleck's bluff range is so small there? i mean if Duhamel is supposed to fold hands like jacks there on a scary board for his ZOMG TOURNAMENT/NOVEMBER NINE LIFE (even though he had Affleck covered by a bit), then doesn't he make that play a ~10-20% of the time with air (like he did last year as someone said earlier)? or are we only going the other way here, and Duhamel is supposed to fold because the bluff range is so small.

idk, just don't think good players like Affleck are sitting there waiting for cards just to move up and make the FT, he might see that as a good spot to steal a bunch of chips if he can make Duhamel fold, regardless of what he's holding. what do people know about Affleck that means he's almost never bluffing there?

full disclosure: yes i suck, no i probably wouldn't have made that call

Just saw this on pokertube

Jason Senti

yeah i actually think rat is leveling here quite a bit. not sure though, it's definitely masked well.

i think the only reason people are saying Affleck wouldn't bluff is the way he went out last year was so....sick and he wouldn't repeat it. I guess that's why people would assume his bluff range is smaller in that spot especially against a player who could eliminate him. affleck's perceived range by duhumel is probably wider than what we are assuming. honestly duhumel basically admitted he was kind of gambling and also that he still had some chips to play with if he lost the pot. if he won it he was big favorite to be the chip leader going into the FT and obviously a good favorite to win. if he lost, he's obviously crippled but not out. Not sure of the EV, but I don't think the call was that -EV especially with the final 9 prize structure.