Western Conference Semifinals 2016: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs - Page 43 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

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Western Conference Semifinals 2016: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs

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Spurs

33 97.06%

Thunder

1 2.94%

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05-11-2016 , 10:42 AM

#1051

Wooders0n

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Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 24,820

Quote:

Originally Posted by Double Eagle

Nate Duncan pretty much nailed this. OKC defenders are all decent or better 1v1 and this incarnation of the Spurs just doesn't move the ball or space the floor well enough to take advantage of the Thunder's glaring weakness as team defenders.

Wat

Spurs have had incredible ball movement all year

Thunder are winning because Russ and Durant are playing well and they're both top 5 players in the world

Quote

05-11-2016 , 10:43 AM

#1052

Wooders0n

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Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 24,820

Thunder may not win a game vs. GS. Spurs might win one or two,but probably not 2. Neither of these teams are close to them. Shame on anyone who was fooled by sa's point differential.

Quote

05-11-2016 , 11:01 AM

#1053

ALLTheCookies

half a brain

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 23,373

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wooders0n

Thunder may not win a game vs. GS. Spurs might win one or two,but probably not 2. Neither of these teams are close to them. Shame on anyone who was fooled by sa's point differential.

I strongly disagree with this but then again I've been watching a Steph-less Dubs team for 3 weeks so it's entirely possible.

Quote

05-11-2016 , 11:17 AM

#1054

Caldarooni

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Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 25,000

I actually think the Spurs ball movement has been a detriment this series. Seems lots of early open looks are being passed up for the sake of ball movement only to settle for 18-20 footers.

Quote

05-11-2016 , 11:18 AM

#1055

Caldarooni

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Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 25,000

EVery time Parker takes a jump shot OKC has won that possession

Quote

05-11-2016 , 11:23 AM

#1056

mullen

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Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 17,558

The Spurs really need Aldridge's offense too, especially late in games. Kawhi is incapable of stepping up offensively and shouldering the creation duties. And I agree with Cald that Parker taking 17 footers off the pnr is a win for OKC basically always

Danny Green raining 3s helped but Spurs gonna have a real tough time winning a 6-21 Aldridge game

Quote

05-11-2016 , 12:20 PM

#1057

DisGunBGud

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Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 23,708

What are the series prices currently at. Spurs still a small fav?

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05-11-2016 , 12:45 PM

#1058

mullen

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Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 17,558

Quote:

Originally Posted by DisGunBGud

What are the series prices currently at. Spurs still a small fav?

Going off the spreads for G6/G7 the Spurs have roughly a 41% chance of winning both games.

Quote

05-11-2016 , 12:47 PM

#1059

TimM846

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 5,787

Quote:

Originally Posted by Baltimore Jones

You know, it's almost like variance is completely a real thing and that the narratives we form about who "choked" and who was a hero and who got revenge and who was "shook" from game to game and series to series and year to year are just fitting a story onto randomness.

And I know we sort of know this logically, but no - really. It's real.

variance is a real thing that people refuse to acknowledge.

sort of like pop coaching poorly in the playoffs.

Quote

05-11-2016 , 01:01 PM

#1060

ICalledGame

banned

Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 119

there is a lot less variance in basketball than people think. a good shot is good. its on you. if it bounces out, it wasnt a perfect shot. there is variance in the reffing. not sure where else?

Quote

05-11-2016 , 01:03 PM

#1061

Fallen Hero

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Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 21,439

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wooders0n

Wat

Spurs have had incredible ball movement all year

Thunder are winning because Russ and Durant are playing well and they're both top 5 players in the world

contrary to popular belief ball movement doesn't exist without being able to beat a defender 1v1, even if it's just beating him by being faster at coming off a screen, the Spurs haven't been able to do that consistently since game 1.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Caldarooni

I actually think the Spurs ball movement has been a detriment this series. Seems lots of early open looks are being passed up for the sake of ball movement only to settle for 18-20 footers.

we've gone through spurts of complete iso-ball into over passing, into iso-ball, etc. Someone on twitter (Nate Duncan i think?) made a good point which is, players are passing up marginally good shots because they think OKC's D will be there in time to contest, even when we can clearly see on tv that they won't.

Quote

05-11-2016 , 01:05 PM

#1062

Fallen Hero

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Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 21,439

Quote:

Originally Posted by ICalledGame

there is a lot less variance in basketball than people think. a good shot is good. its on you. if it bounces out, it wasnt a perfect shot. there is variance in the reffing. not sure where else?

There's an insane amount of variance in shooting, no one is a perfect shooter, even Curry "only" shoots like 50% from 3

Quote

05-11-2016 , 01:07 PM

#1063

ICalledGame

banned

Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 119

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fallen Hero

There's an insane amount of variance in shooting, no one is a perfect shooter, even Curry "only" shoots like 50% from 3

theres 'variance' but its not like a shot goes up and it misses and its unlucky, or it goes in and its lucky. it is skill whether you shoot the ball well. the 50 percent of the time curry misses, he just didnt shoot it perfectly

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05-11-2016 , 01:10 PM

#1064

Fallen Hero

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Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 21,439

Quote:

Originally Posted by ICalledGame

it doesn't matter though, maybe some day some one will be born that's skillful enough to hit 100% of open shots, until then the common unskillful players will continue to shoot around 50% and some days they'll run like god and some days they won't.

Quote

05-11-2016 , 01:31 PM

#1065

tzwien

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 5,267

Lol of course there is a ton of variance. Spurs just shot like 95% from the field in game 1 because they tried harder? Anything that isn't 100% or 0% is subject to variance. Whatever it is.

The variance in shooting comes from "finding" that perfect form necessary for the ball to go in. Same with putting in golf. There are a bunch of variables that need to line up correctly. If these things were possible to control nobody would ever miss. Thus, variance.

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05-11-2016 , 01:32 PM

#1066

jwax13

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 2,667

Quote

05-11-2016 , 01:41 PM

#1067

ILOVEPOKER929

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Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 30,882

Quote:

Originally Posted by Baltimore Jones

Think about how annoying it is to be a hockey writer. You literally have to change your whole story depending on which way the puck bounces.

Quote

05-11-2016 , 01:44 PM

#1068

rtd353

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 3,895

Quote:

Originally Posted by Baltimore Jones

what league has less variance than the nba?

Quote

05-11-2016 , 01:50 PM

#1069

DisGunBGud

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Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 23,708

Quote:

Someone on twitter (Nate Duncan i think?) made a good point which is, players are passing up marginally good shots because they think OKC's D will be there in time to contest, even when we can clearly see on tv that they won't.

I've noticed this as well, especially on a lot of dribble drives. Now I understand some of that is designed for the kick out 3, but the Spurs like you said are anticipating the defense contesting when they never actually do and the attacking player still passes the ball anyways.

Quote

05-11-2016 , 01:52 PM

#1070

tzwien

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 5,267

Quote:

Originally Posted by rtd353

what league has less variance than the nba?

None. How is that relevant?

Quote

05-11-2016 , 02:42 PM

#1071

TimM846

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 5,787

It's not relevant. Neither are silly Westbrook haters today.

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05-11-2016 , 02:54 PM

#1072

tzwien

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 5,267

Quote:

Originally Posted by TimM846

It's not relevant. Neither are silly Westbrook haters today.

43/120 from the field this series. Westbrick is still a suitable nickname.

Durant is 49/98. Keep chucking those shots though Russ.

Quote

05-11-2016 , 03:12 PM

#1073

Baltimore Jones

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 5,835

Quote:

Originally Posted by TimM846

variance is a real thing that people refuse to acknowledge.

sort of like pop coaching poorly in the playoffs.

5 championships out of 19 plus a Finals up 3-2 and numerous close losses say otherwise.

Quote

05-11-2016 , 05:43 PM

#1074

DisGunBGud

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Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 23,708

I tried to give my money away once already with no takers, I'll try again. My $100 to your $125, I've got the Spurs taking it in 7.

Venmo, PP preferred.

Quote

05-11-2016 , 05:45 PM

#1075

VarianceMinefield

banned

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 57,722

Quote:

Originally Posted by DisGunBGud

I tried to give my money away once already with no takers, I'll try again. My $100 to your $125, I've got the Spurs taking it in 7.

Venmo, PP preferred.

booked

Quote

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