.

If the odds aren’t credible, free ride to millions for you. Did you bet Miami to make/win ECF or Lakers to miss playoffs in 2022? Or are you just pretending it was obvious in hindsight after it already happened?

That wasn't the same team. Are you trying to say the Bulls drop-off from their title run to a 2nd round exit was so huge that you spent all this time talking about how disingenuous that people tried to say that's not a big drop-off for a team losing a GOAT-level player and you think the difference between the Warriors not making the playoffs and winning the title was just Klay? Is Klay now more impactful than MJ?

It looks like you're quoting posts that talk about how ridiculously inconsistent people like you were at the end of the season, talking about how the Warriors were going to win 55 games before the season and a legitimate contender, then pivoting to talking about how great Curry was at carrying this garbage roster?

I think the point here was that the Warriors supporting cast wasn't so bad that Curry carrying them to where they ended up was some kind of a historic carry job. In other words, I was arguing, that off-season, against people like you, that the Warriors supporting cast was actually better than is being considered by people that were talking about how Curry did a historically good job carrying a terrible supporting cast. I was simply contrasting this against the previous offseason's proclamations because people like you need to be reminded of your previous terrible arguments often. So while I never made a forward-looking statement, to the extent that this implies a prediction, I was being more bullish on the Warriors going forward, than people that were talking about Curry's historic carry-job (which by definition implies regression).

Though it's interesting that nothing has changed:

Warriors VORP in 21-22

Top 5

Steph Curry: 4.4
Gary Payton II: 1.8
Draymond Green: 1.8
Otto Porter Jr: 1.8
Jordan Poole: 1.7

Literally two of these guys weren't on the 20-21 team to start and Jordan Poole wasn't expected to be and wasn't a good player in 20-21. But apparently it's the same team. Also, apparently this is all due to Klay returning who put up 0.7 VORP (10th on the team).

Again, this is quite bizarre because I don't remember ever giving any sort of predictions about the 21-22 Warriors. Also classic fidstar projection:

This guy is legit hilarious. Note that this is one of these terrible articles that could have only been written in 2011, because history has already proved these arguments completely wrong, Let's first start with this guy's season preview, where he predicted the Cavs to make the playoffs:

http://20secondtimeout.blogspot.com/...e-preview.html

Just incredible. I believe in a just world, so I would prefer that morons like this issue a proper mea culpa about how wrong they were about everything, but instead a convoluted piece about how they weren't really wrong is what we will get. I mean he can't even be honest about his prediction:

Preseason prediction:

After the season:

Our own mullen has already destroyed the injury / trade / not-the-same team arguments, so I won't bore everyone with details, but you could talk about how great Lebron's supporting cast was in 2011 and still be taken seriously because we didn't yet get to see how these players would do without Lebron. I mean, we kind of knew it was not great, but we just didn't know how bad. But we have now seen these player continue their careers - literally not a single player was a meaningful role player. Across both 08-09 and 09-10, I don't know if a single player Lebron played with was an above average role player. And none of them literally did anything notable the rest of their career.

Imagine listing these rosters full of basically replacement-level players and talking about how they are so, so deep.

Michael Jordan age 38: 23/5/5 on 41%



LeBron James age 38:29/7/8 on 50% + All nba 3rd team + All time scoring record.



The argument for Michael Jordan gets worst every single year.

LeBron

LeBron played 7 more seasons by age 38 compared to Jordan at age 38.

Yeah the debate is over at this point between MJ and LeBron. MJ should be removed from thread title.

LaBron probably favorite to end up the GOAT for basketball as a sport as we know it due to advances in AI either causing the extinction of the human race, or us merging with machines.

lol @ Otto Porter. Guy was getting DNP-CD in the playoffs. He's the reason we got all that Championship equity. Solid player though.

Anyway curious you used VORP from the regular season. Here they are for the playoffs

Steph - 1.9
Poole - 0.7
Klay - 0.6
Looney - 0.5
Wiggins - 0.5
Green - 0.5

Gee they look like they all played for the Warriors in 20-21.

Fun fact - Payton played for the Warriors in 21.

Anyway, simple question. After all those comments at the end of the 2021 season did you think the Warriors all of a sudden had championship equity at the start of the 2022 season? Yes or no?

Keeping in mind the only thing that changed in the mean time was Klay's start date got pushed back from the start of the season to mid season.

Listing players in minutes played per game in 2022, the top 5 played where all part of the 2021 Warriors team. 9 of the Top 10 (8 of the top 9 if you don't want to count Payton).

There were changes, but they were essentially the same team with a couple of minor changes to role players (like every team from one season to next).

Otto Porter played 20 MPG and had a 2.7 bpm. I don’t think he had a single DNP-CD, he got hurt a few times and missed a handful of games.

Your argument appears to be the following:

In 2021:

Fidstar “Warriors should win about 55 games next year”

Candybar: “too high given non-KD metrics, around 50 sounds right, maybe a little lower”

Results: Warriors win 39 games (44-45 adjusted for 82 game season) and miss playoffs.

And you think this looks good for you because the Warriors won a title in 2022? Why? 2021 and 2022 Warrior outlooks were completely different. Per BBREF:

2021: Title odds +2500, o/u 37.5 (43ish adjusted)
2022: Title odds +900, o/u 48.5

Why the massive disparity in projections if it was the “same team” per your analysis?

CB didn't think they had championship equity 2021 and trying to get away with a technicality (because he didn't specifically say it about the 2022 season) that effectively the exact same team that was now even older and Klay being out for another 18 months was so drastically different that his comments were no longer relevant.

I just want him to admit he was wrong. Mainly because it would be good for him. Might make him a human.

My bad about Otto Porter. Looks like the games he missed were injury related.

He was down to playing 17 minutes a game though by the Boston series.

Klay was coming back and they went over on their 2021 under/over.

Steph also coming off a season out proved that he still had it.

I'll repeat myself... Listing players in minutes played per game in 2022, the top 5 played where all part of the 2021 Warriors team. 9 of the Top 10 (8 of the top 9 if you don't want to count Payton). That's about as much as the "same team" as you'll ever get in the NBA.

This isn't a technicality - it's literally the whole point.

So to summarize all of your nonsense and narrow it to the actual season where we both offered our opinions, the 20-21 season, your argument is that you being completely wrong about the 20-21 season isn't you being actually wrong because Klay missed the whole season, right? The problem is that the 21-22 season proves this argument to be complete nonsense. Klay missed enough of the season that we got to see the Warriors with Klay and without Klay. The Warriors (remember, same team as the 39-33 Warriors from the 20-21 season?) went 29-9 before Klay returned. And went just 24-20 the rest of the season with Klay. That doesn't sound like missing Klay was the reason while the 20-21 Warriors were so much worse than the 21-22 Warriors. Even in the playoffs, the Warriors were +2.4 with Klay on and +14.1 with Klay off. Again, not proof that Klay was bad, but it certainly seems to be that Klay wasn't some sort of a hugely positive difference maker whose absence made your forecast completely inaccurate.

The main reason why the 21-22 Warriors were so much better have nothing to do things you should've factored into anyone's preseason predictions for the 20-21 Warriors. It has to do with the defense being so much better due to players that weren't on the 20-21 Warriors yet and Jordan Poole improving drastically from his age-21 season to age-22 season. Nothing about the 21-22 season should've made you think, you know what, it was totally reasonable to predict the Warriors to win 55 games in 20-21, it's just that Klay missed the whole season.

Also, this was the actual prediction:

Even if we were to humor you and pretend that this was about the future of this core group regardless of who's on the team, rather than the 20-21 season, my point was that the Warriors weren't the team to beat in the West and that they were clear worse than the Nuggets and more on the level of the Mavericks. Let's see how these teams did over the next 3 seasons:

Nuggets: 148-88
Warriors: 136-100
Mavericks: 132-104

That seems roughly in line with the Nuggets > Warriors = Mavericks prediction. How about the 20-21 season?

Nuggets: 47-25
Warriors: 39-33
Mavericks: 42-30

Well it clearly looks correct as well. I mean, this is about as correct as predictions get - it's completely insane how in fidstar's mind, this is something where I should admit that I was wrong.

I mean it's really sad that you are so frequently wrong about everything that despite this being a situation where you were completely wrong and I was completely right, you act entitled to gloat, presumably because this is as close you get to being right. I mean, in reality, you were completely wrong - did you ever admit that?

Is your contention here that the 22-year Jordan Poole going off in the playoffs in 22 means that the prediction about the Warriors 20-21 season that implicitly expected him to be not that good is wrong, even though Jordan Poole wasn't actually that good in 20-21? And should we have factored the contributions of Gary Payton II, who literally wasn't on the team and didn't do too much for the Warriors in 20-21, into the preseason predictions for the 20-21 Warriors?

Or is this just part of some performance art where you try to look as ridiculous as possible by talking about how I won't admit to being wrong, even though you were actually wrong and somehow literally cannot admit to this for some reason?

New Topic!


How many championships does Jokic need to win in his career as the best player on his team to be truly entered into the Discussion for GOAT!


Go!

Hmm. I'll go with 2 ships needed for Jokic to move into GOAT discussion, along with a bunch more years of stat greatness. Like with Chamberlain.

That to join the group of the current top 5 in my book, in no particular order, Kareem, Wilt, Jordan, LeBron, Magic.

I like it, thanks for input FellaGaga! You are one of my all time favorite posters!

LeBron definitely choked in 2011 Finals imo, like it’s beyond debate. I don’t see how it can be argued any other way, given the argument you make for him redeeming it in the 12 years since is the consistent bulk production in high leverage playoff games. 25 / 5 / 5 minimums over and over, with key blocks / steals / etc. He was nowhere near that in the last couple of games of the 2011 series.

The LeBron haters can’t have 2011 and also claim he wasn’t clutch since in the same way the LeBron fans can’t claim he’s been clutch so much of his career but also somehow claim 2011 vs Dallas and 2010 vs Boston was acceptable.

This is stuff we should be able to agree on, accepting that there’s an element to the debate that see every finals LeBron lost would have been a win if you swap in MJ. But whatever - that the MJ side can’t accept age 38 LBJ > or the LeBron side can’t accept 2011 was a choke is why this debate is so terrible.

So LeBron better…but nah. Modern players too soft, got it.

Thank God we have all-nba teams to help us debunk this nonsense.

If you think stats are inflated that is fine, but all-nba teams rank the best 5, best 10, best 15 players in the league.

LeBron even having missed 20+ games was all-nba 3rd team, probably good enough for all-nba 2nd team if he didn't miss so many games.

Jordan played 60 games, 4 more than Bran did and didn't make any all-nba teams.


They weren't remotely close. Age 38 Bron >>>>>>> Age 38 Jordan by a landslide.

The Jordan crowd will literally look at age 38 Jordan and tell themselves "about equal to age 38 LeBron".


That's what we are dealing with. Massive levels of delusion. Walk on water levels.

Can you remove Curry and Jordan from thread title?


It's between Jokic and Bran now.



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