FYP, and I think Sagarin is overrating Georgia by a point or two, which gets us to my statement. I swear to god I'm not leveling anyone in this thread.

Ok...I was done, but your last line introduces a new wrinkle. I see an easy solution here since you posted one actual game that can happen. Shall we prop bet Miss/LSU straight up? I'll go up to $25k.

To clarify, I'm only answering specific questions that have been asked in this thread. I'm not trying to argue that the Pac Ten is better than the SEC. The Pac Ten sucks this year. The SEC is good.

In stringent terms of "good teams", the SEC wins easily because Florida and USC are a wash, and then the SEC also has Alabama while the Pac Ten has noone. The problem is, you guys are also trying to include an overrated Georgia team, and IF you add them to the list, there are at least two, and in my opinion four, Pac Ten teams that need to be added as well. This still doesn't mean the Pac Ten is comparable to the SEC, because the bottom five of the Pac Ten is absolute trash. The SEC is WAY tougher in the lower-middle section, and has noone anywhere near as bad as the Washington schools.

Of course the SEC is better than the Pac Ten, but they aren't as good at the top as people think they are, because Georgia is a 12-20 team masquerading as a top ten team, and LSU is a bottom-half-of-the-conference team that should be ranked about 40th, masquerading as a top 15 team.

On a side note, how the hell is Oregon even ranked 20th by Sagarin? The teams they have beaten

0-7
1-7
2-6
1-7
3-5
2-5

total record of wins: 9-37

Then a loss to a non-BCS school in Boise and a blowout loss to USC. How exactly are they 20th? Oregon is terrible and have not yet beaten a team remotely close to a winning record. But i guess they were all blowouts so o0o0o0o go Sagarin go?

Congratulations, you have a bankroll that allows you to bet amounts of money on single games that exceeds my personal networth. If Ole Miss and LSU play on a neutral field, I'd be happy to bet on Ole Miss straight up, up to my limit of about $50. Of course the game is being played in Baton Rouge, which is a HFA worth about the edge I think I have. I don't think I'm getting the worst of it taking Ole Miss pk @ LSU, but I don't think I have an edge either.

lol, bob's gonna be able to get points for miss @ LSU, and you want him to bet straight up? haha

Because he's overrating them. I'm a Duck fan, but on pure performance we shouldn't be in the top 25, unless you give us a pass on the Boise game due to injuries, which I don't think is the reason Sagarin's computer formula is using.

Sagarin's performance ratings use a flawed strength of schedule measure, that gives Oregon way too much credit for playing USC and Boise. Personally I have Oregon's strength of schedule graded as #103, though that's based on margin-of-victory performances of their opponents.

Edit: You're dead on that blowout wins is the reason they're up there in the Predictor ratings. Having us 26th in the ELO chess ratings though is silly, and is due to overrating our SOS badly, like I said. Our performance from a pure win/loss standpoint is definitely not top 25 if you look at who we've beat. Your argument is correct.

compared to UGA's wins over

6-2
5-3
2-5
3-5
5-3
5-2

combined record of 26-20. I really don't get the Sagarin ranking right here and putting Oregon that high is a joke. UGA is really high because they are 6-1 against a very good schedule, and oregon is ranked high because... ? Step away from the sagarin for a second and use your head. It's not even close.

this is kind of the entire point of the offer. I think LSU will be favored. He thinks they won't (or at least shouldn't) be based on his rankings showing Mississippi being "well" better.

I guess your reading comprehension can't get your from point A to point B, though.

I think they shouldn't on a neutral site. I think at home it should be about pick'em. I definitely think that they WILL be favored though, and have no interest in a prop bet on the line. I know I'll be able to get points, if nothing changes between now and then, and I'll be happy to make that bet when the time comes.

You think Ole Miss is a pick em @ LSU?

It's close. I have Ole Miss as probably 3-4 points better on a neutral site. LSU has a real good HFA though, LSU pk probably does win slightly more than half the time. Just as a clarification of how overrated I think LSU is, though, let me just say that last week I bet on Georgia, despite the fact that this entire thread has basically been me ranting that Georgia is overrated. LSU is that much MORE overrated. IMO, of course.

If the line comes out and Miss is +3 or whatever, what incentive does he have to make a monetary bet with you? Unless he has like no money on any sportsbook anywhere.

Where exactly do you think UGA is? 15-20 range? 20-25 range? Worse? Better? Just curious of how overrated you think they are.

I'd put them about 16th or 17th, probably, though I think at this moment the gap between ~12 and ~25 is not more than ~4 points, and I consider everyone in that range to be pretty comparable, as I think there's a noticeable drop off of 3-4 points between the next group above or below that group. I think Georgia is overrated, because people are including them a tier higher than they should be, and putting them in with other teams that are legitimately top ten.

Yeah, I know exactly what you meant. I'm just responding since i got an lol at even offering the bet when you did say that you think Miss is "well" better as the first comparison between the two teams. I figured that had to mean enough points to make su @LSU at least in the ball park.

BTW, I'll end this whole thing with wishing you luck with your modeling. You are a much more dedicated capper than I for even getting this far. It seems like you have a few issues in there, but I know you're just getting started, so gl.

I'm a little torn on the Georgia argument. Did I think they started the year wildly overrated? Yes. Do I think they're still a little overrated? Yes. Do I think a fair line for the Cocktail Party is Florida -13? Yes. However, I still think the Bulldogs are a Top Ten team. There just aren't that many elite upper-echelon teams out there.

I mean can you really put Ohio State ahead of Georgia considering how weak their offense is? Or Utah when Michigan is one of their tougher games this year and they almost lost that? How about Florida State that only scored 3 points against Wake Forest and gave up 39 to Miami?

I could maybe see #12 for the Dawgs if you're really high on TCU, Boise State, and Missouri, but I don't think saying they belong "in the 12-20 range" is really a fair characterization.

I agree with Iggy. They were clearly overrated when they started the season, but I think they are pretty correctly placed in the 8-10 range. I just don't see the evidence of how they are currently very overrated. Saying it over and over again doesn't make it true.

They are 6-1 against a fairly tough schedule, Sagarin likes them enough, the polls like them, I don't really know what I'm missing here. Nobody is saying they should be in the top 5 or anything like that.

I mean what has Missouri done to be put ahead UGA? Its almost like there is an overrated backlash because of their preseason hype, and now they are being underrated.

I think a lot of the GA hate is the backlash from an absolute trouncing at home. Fair or not, I think that might have a lot to do with it.

The PAC10 has 5 good teams? Are you counting USC every year for the past 5 years?

Thank you, I appreciate that. I'm absolutely not using my model to determine my bets yet (although last week I wished I had, lol). I need to make some major overhauls to it before I feel it's really of value. Switching from MOV to YPP is probably the biggest fix it needs.

I know some of my opinions on certain college football teams vary from what most people (including the collective wisdom of the gambling market) believe. This year three of those teams are Alabama, Georgia, and LSU, all of whom I think are overrated, and that is getting me in trouble with SEC homers obviously. I enjoy arguing those points, and will do so vociferously, but I hope it's not taken as being abrasive. I do respect that people disagree with me, and that's fine. The only part that bothers me is when I'm accused of not being objective. This year I'm on the Big XII's jock, because I really think they are far and away the best conference. I have almost the exact same personal feelings toward the Big XII as I have toward the SEC. And I have no problem admitting that the SEC is much better overall than "my" Pac Ten this year, even though I do think the 2-5 Pac Ten teams happen to be on par with Georgia.

not to belabor the point, but 2-5 in the pac10 are nowhere near as good as UGA and you are going to look dumb if you argue they are.

Oregon has zero wins over winning teams.

Arizona has one win over a winning team.

California has one win over a winning team.

OSUwest has one win over a winning team.

UGA has more victories over teams with winning records than all of those schools combined. In addition, those 4 teams have lost 3 games to non-BCS schools and lost to stanford twice. UGA has only lost to the #2 team in the country.

The pac10 is terrible and those teams aren't even close to UGA. You're going to look dumb if you keep arguing this.

How is it a pet cause? I've always discussed scenarios that would be crazy and create chaos for the BCS. Florida just happens to have the best chance to do it this year. It's not the only thing I have been discussing, chill the **** out.

I don't think it is fair based on the one game. Only they haven't really looked stellar in any games this year.

That said, I have no problem giving them a bit of credit, I don't think LSU is as bad as most think so their win was pretty good.

I disagree that
Oregon, Oregon State, Cal, and Arizona are on the same level as UGA.

The use of Sagarin as the end all especially when discussing the Pac-10 is getting old.

Not this year. The Big 11 and SEC are pretty close. If you're talking about rankings, there is no way undefeated Alabama jumps undefeated Texas and no way undefeated Texas Tech jumps undefeated Alabama.