Quote:
Originally Posted by vhawk01
Playing for a 58 yd FG to win it is not "low variance"
Agreed, but people are short sighted as hell. Taking lower variance -EV plays the whole game puts you in tough spots at the end of the game, and people can accept "gambles" when the clock is low and not in the 2nd quarter.
The fact a higher variance +EV play is even called "gambling" shows you how warped people's mentality is.
This just isn't a sports phenomenon though. It's just innate human nature for most of the population. One of the important aspects of successful people in life are those who can see +EV opportunities and take them whereas other people pass on them as too risky.
I'm just talking about things from a coach's job security perspective. Even if a coach completely understood the odds, the hell they'd catch from morons on talk radio and the Phil Sims of the world makes it not worth the trouble.