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Super Bowl Squares AUCTION (small stakes) Super Bowl Squares AUCTION (small stakes)

01-25-2015 , 11:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by trigstarr
My 8 9 should be .25 FYI
It is, and already was for that matter, in the list. Now also reads correctly in the grid. Bids entered for pokergrader and Banned4lyfe, now fully caught up with bids as of this post.
Super Bowl Squares AUCTION (small stakes) Quote
01-25-2015 , 11:52 PM
2 4 $0.15
6 9 $0.15
9 7 $0.15
2 5 $0.10
2 7 $0.15
6 4 $0.30
9 6 $0.15
8 2 $0.10
9 4 $0.15
5 7 $0.15
4 2 $0.15
7 2 $0.15
7 5 $0.30
3 2 $0.15
4 6 $0.30
2 3 $0.15
4 4 $0.35
5 9 $0.15
7 9 $0.15
7 8 $0.30
4 9 $0.15
9 5 $0.15
5 2 $0.10
2 6 $0.15
9 9 $0.15
8 7 $0.35
9 8 $0.15
Super Bowl Squares AUCTION (small stakes) Quote
01-25-2015 , 11:56 PM
sterfry's bids are in
Super Bowl Squares AUCTION (small stakes) Quote
01-26-2015 , 12:01 AM
4 4 $0.61
8 7 $0.40
5 0 $0.31
0 5 $0.30
7 5 $0.34
3 2 $0.18
2 3 $0.17
Super Bowl Squares AUCTION (small stakes) Quote
01-26-2015 , 12:05 AM
got 'em pokergrader
Super Bowl Squares AUCTION (small stakes) Quote
01-26-2015 , 12:34 AM
4 4 $0.65
8 7 $0.45
5 0 $0.35
0 5 $0.35
7 5 $0.40
3 2 $0.20
2 3 $0.20
Super Bowl Squares AUCTION (small stakes) Quote
01-26-2015 , 12:37 AM
In, sterfry9.
Super Bowl Squares AUCTION (small stakes) Quote
01-26-2015 , 12:42 AM
4 2 $0.16
2 4 $0.16
Super Bowl Squares AUCTION (small stakes) Quote
01-26-2015 , 12:43 AM
Got 'em
Super Bowl Squares AUCTION (small stakes) Quote
01-26-2015 , 12:47 AM
$0.50 each on
0 5
5 0
7 5
8 7
7 8
Super Bowl Squares AUCTION (small stakes) Quote
01-26-2015 , 12:47 AM
6 7 $0.60
7 6 $0.60
Super Bowl Squares AUCTION (small stakes) Quote
01-26-2015 , 12:48 AM
illinifan4249: updated
Super Bowl Squares AUCTION (small stakes) Quote
01-26-2015 , 12:48 AM
4 6 $.50
6 4 $.50
Super Bowl Squares AUCTION (small stakes) Quote
01-26-2015 , 12:48 AM
And sterfry updated too.
Super Bowl Squares AUCTION (small stakes) Quote
01-26-2015 , 12:49 AM
And Tuma in
Super Bowl Squares AUCTION (small stakes) Quote
01-26-2015 , 12:49 AM
Super Bowl Squares AUCTION (small stakes) Quote
01-26-2015 , 12:50 AM
Last 10 minutes!
Super Bowl Squares AUCTION (small stakes) Quote
01-26-2015 , 12:56 AM
2 6 $0.16
9 9 $0.16
8 6 $0.26
6 8 $0.26
Super Bowl Squares AUCTION (small stakes) Quote
01-26-2015 , 12:57 AM
pokergrader in
Super Bowl Squares AUCTION (small stakes) Quote
01-26-2015 , 12:58 AM
7 9 $0.16
2 0 $0.26
9 4 $0.16
0 8 $0.26
6 3 $0.51
8 0 $0.26
3 6 $0.51
7 2 $0.16
5 7 $0.16
4 9 $0.16
0 2 $0.26
9 7 $0.16
6 9 $0.16
9 6 $0.16
6 7 $0.61
7 6 $0.61
2 7 $0.16
Super Bowl Squares AUCTION (small stakes) Quote
01-26-2015 , 12:59 AM
8 6 $0.30
6 8 $0.30
Super Bowl Squares AUCTION (small stakes) Quote
01-26-2015 , 01:01 AM
And we're closed! Got pokergrader and sterfry9 in
Super Bowl Squares AUCTION (small stakes) Quote
01-26-2015 , 01:02 AM
Thank you everyone for participating

I'll PM all the successful bidders my PayPal info and then go get some sleep. Tomorrow I'll dive into some more depth analysis of how all the bidding went!
Super Bowl Squares AUCTION (small stakes) Quote
01-29-2015 , 12:24 AM
Pokergrader, in another thread you said that you had an EV model and numbers for this pool, mind sharing?
Super Bowl Squares AUCTION (small stakes) Quote
01-29-2015 , 12:46 AM
I just made a thing that picked among the various 1st/2nd/3rd/final scores among the past 48 super bowls and then simulated that a few million times to get the approx EV of every square. I don't think it is the best thing (better would be the scores among similar teams), but the past SB box scores were the ones I could find the most easily.

Once you have the theoretical EV of the squares, figuring out which ones to bid on is fairly straightforward. If the current bid is lower than the EV, you should bid. If not, you shouldn't.

If I did it again, I would just use this guy's numbers for the first part, seems like he did a much more thorough job:
http://www.minyanville.com/business-.../2015/id/55944

In fact, you could just plug that guys thing into excel or google spreadsheets, scale the numbers based on the total price pool, and it would effectively be the same thing.
Super Bowl Squares AUCTION (small stakes) Quote

      
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