Sports Mega-Draft (MLB+NBA+NFL) picks and discussion
09-23-2010
, 10:12 PM
09-23-2010
, 10:36 PM
09-23-2010
, 11:31 PM
09-23-2010
, 11:33 PM
K, I have Manji/Rat's picks queued up. I'm not 100% sure on the order since the one listed as "30th overall" was the 2nd one PMed to me, but they can fix it tomorrow morning if there's any "X is a 1st rounder!" agenda (such as Kobe being a top-5 pick!) 
Good to go now, right?
Will PM Karak and aejones as well.
Good to go now, right?
Will PM Karak and aejones as well.
Last edited by DCIAce; 09-23-2010 at 11:36 PM.
Reason: edit: nevermind on the PM :p
09-23-2010
, 11:33 PM
With the 30th pick in the draft, LeRat and Manji select Andrew Bogut.
First and foremost, Bogut is the anchor the second best rated defense in the NBA. His 6.7 BLK% was 2nd in the NBA behind Joey Anthony. Why do you think everyone fears the deer? He's rated 10th in TRB%, collecting a strong 17.9%. For someone known for his elite defense, he's a strong offensive player too. He's 33rd in USG% at 23.3 while his per is 21st at 20.7. People forget this guy was the #1 pick in the draft not too long ago, and for good reason. He's a skiller passer out of the post as well.
His APM 2 years is 7.02 ranking him top 10 in the NBA. His 6th seeded Bucks were a losing team in the 13 games he was out last season. His starting lineup for the first half of the season was Brandon Jennings, Charlie Bell, Carlos
Delfino and mainly Hakim Warrick. Put an average C on that team and they struggle to win 25.
First and foremost, Bogut is the anchor the second best rated defense in the NBA. His 6.7 BLK% was 2nd in the NBA behind Joey Anthony. Why do you think everyone fears the deer? He's rated 10th in TRB%, collecting a strong 17.9%. For someone known for his elite defense, he's a strong offensive player too. He's 33rd in USG% at 23.3 while his per is 21st at 20.7. People forget this guy was the #1 pick in the draft not too long ago, and for good reason. He's a skiller passer out of the post as well.
His APM 2 years is 7.02 ranking him top 10 in the NBA. His 6th seeded Bucks were a losing team in the 13 games he was out last season. His starting lineup for the first half of the season was Brandon Jennings, Charlie Bell, Carlos
Delfino and mainly Hakim Warrick. Put an average C on that team and they struggle to win 25.
09-23-2010
, 11:34 PM
Ryan Zimmerman
From Fangraphs' chat of yesterday:
Quote:
12:52 [Comment From Chad]
The "who would you start a franchise with" question
12:52 Dave Cameron: Wrote about this a month or two ago. Ryan Zimmerman.
The "who would you start a franchise with" question
12:52 Dave Cameron: Wrote about this a month or two ago. Ryan Zimmerman.
The freaky thing is, Zimmerman is only 25 years old. All he does is improve year after year, getting 4.3 WAR in 2006, 5.0 WAR in 2007, getting his season derailed by injuries in 2008, 6.6 WAR in 2009, 7.3 WAR in 2010 and the season isn't over yet! It's very possible that Zimmerman will put up 9+ WAR next season, making him one of the best players in baseball, if not THE best. It truly is scary to think of what he will do when he reaches his peak.
Some quotes about him:
Quote:
Last year, Zimmerman had his breakout season, putting up a +6.6 win season that ranked as the ninth best in baseball. This year, he’s followed it up with a +6.0 win season so far, ranking second. Since the beginning of the 2009 season, only Albert Pujols has posted a better WAR than Zimmerman. He has become a complete all-around player, adding patience and power to an already impressive skillset.
Quote:
Just 25 years of age, he’s already a +6 win player thanks to his combination of offensive and defensive skills, and he’s signed through 2013 for a grand total of just $35 million. He looks like a bargain at this rate, but he may not be done developing yet – the scary part about Zimmerman is that there’s room for more improvement. At this price, the current performance and ability to provide even more in the future makes Zimmerman one of the game’s best values.
Quote:
Be happy, Nats fans — a superstar debuted on the mound last night, but remember that you guys have one at the hot corner, too.
09-23-2010
, 11:36 PM
09-23-2010
, 11:37 PM
Why do a Writeup when you can have a GOAT NBA-Analyst do it for you?
With the second or third pick in the second round, I select:
Reasons I like 'Melo: More than likely, I will not be able to build an elite NBA team since I choose not to use my two first round picks on NBA guys and I didn't get a top 5 pick. However, IMO 'Melo is the type of guy that can lift an average team to a good team, or a good team to a very good team (admittedly, he might not be the type of guy that can lift a very good team to elite though). He's high usage and will give me a chance to win a lot of games while not putting pressure on me to surround him with infinite talent (even if I'm only vying for home court advantage and not a #1 seed).
With the second or third pick in the second round, I select:
Quote:
Carmelo Anthony, SF
Basically, I want a premier wing player. A legit #1 option. A guy who can shoulder the team and propel us to victory. So, even though I hate Carmelo (actually, he's winning me over, I just mildly dislike him) I think he's the clear BPA. In truth, I had him slated as better than a few guys ahead of him already drafted.
If this draft occurred last year, I wouldn't have ranked Carmelo so highly. He was an overrated player that the media loved due to a gaudy PPG scoring average and could whip out some flashy dunks, but largely was a soft defender and not entirely efficient. But, he has since turned the corner, pretty much coinciding with Chauncey Billups' arrival to Denver. Here are some facts:
-Carmelo Anthony is still just 25 Years Old. He's still getting better, as he's entering his peak years now.
-'Melo has never had any serious injuries; in fact, the reason he's piled up some missed games throughout his career has been due to DUIs (and throwing punches...) which account for more than half of his missed time.
A huge component of this draft is long term success. Long term success is closely tied in with age (players tend to peak around 26/27 and plateau until 30, after which they experience a mellow decline for many years until they are no longer legit NBA players) and health (players that are constantly dinged up miss games - or peak early and fade faster). The way I see it, I get Carmelo as a beast for 5 years at his current level. After that he will be useful for a few more. Or, I can sign him to a max/7yr deal and be happy that he'll be a franchise guy.
Not to hate on some other teams, but of the guys taken ahead of Carmelo...
-Durant is not a proven leader. I know it sounds ridiculous, and I love the kid, but he's never even touched the playoffs. Who knows how much his play will fall off when it matters?
-Wade has missed more than 65 games in 6+ seasons and is already 28. It's arguable he's better than Carmelo THIS year (I'd lean towards Wade) but what about next year? The year after? I take Carmelo
-The Bean is already battling a multitude of injuries right now, and without taking time off for them to heal, they will linger + persist. Yes, he's playing amazing basketball right now, but the man turns 32 soon.
-B Waaaa... Defense is half the game. Although he's Carmelo's equal on the offensive end, he still is a very marginal defender. Carmelo is now quite a bit better than marginal.
Anyway, Carmelo has a unique playing style which the rest of my team will emphasize as well as augment: He can get the ball from any spot on the floor, and immediately seeks contact by driving to the basket. He has a godly 9.5 FTA/36 this year, and since he's logging a terrific 37.6 mpg this season, actually is getting to the line 9.9 times a game. I really think drawing fouls is vital: Only Dwight Howard takes more free throws. Further, Carmelo is actually pretty elite in that he touches the ball an insane amount in the offense (34.1 USG%) and yet has a measly turnover rate (9.8%, which for a primary option, a single digit TOV% is incredible).
Oh, did I mention the man has a 56.9 TS? Meaning, he plays extended minutes; is responsible for more than a third of the teams possessions; rarely do those possessions result in a turnover; and finally shoots at an above-average rate! (In fact, 2% more than average, which is ELITE) The fact that Carmelo can also play off-ball (35.5% 3pt shooter which is around league average, 6.3 OREB% which is a good bit better than league average relative to SFs) means I can position him however I'd like on the offense. These raw stats result in his career-high 25.0 PER, fwiw.
I mentioned Carmelo is better than Roy due to defense, and I truly mean that. The art of defense involves several factors: Denying good shots. Rebounding misses (and therefore preventing your opponent from gather 2nd chance points). Forcing turnovers. And not fouling your opponent. At 6'8 (and willing to take the tough assignments in the 4th) coupled w/ Carmelo's counterpart data, it seems as though 'Melo is about league average with regard to forcing misses. However, he has a strong rebounding edge on SFs (by nearly 25%), has solid steal rates, and doesn't foul often. Couple this with above-average DAPMs, and although I'll often use a different wing for the tough matchups (until the 4th Q, anyway) it means my wing defense will be quite decent.
Oh, a writeup would not be complete without acknowledgment of APM. Carmelo's 2yr APM stands at +5.22, which makes him a legit All-Star and top end player. And he's only getting better.
*Note Carmelo gives me flexibility, due to his strength/size, to play him at the 4 in certain small ball situations. Although I doubt I'll do this too often (he's like the perfect SF) flexibility and versatility are great things. Especially in the playoffs where match ups become more important.
Basically, I want a premier wing player. A legit #1 option. A guy who can shoulder the team and propel us to victory. So, even though I hate Carmelo (actually, he's winning me over, I just mildly dislike him) I think he's the clear BPA. In truth, I had him slated as better than a few guys ahead of him already drafted.
If this draft occurred last year, I wouldn't have ranked Carmelo so highly. He was an overrated player that the media loved due to a gaudy PPG scoring average and could whip out some flashy dunks, but largely was a soft defender and not entirely efficient. But, he has since turned the corner, pretty much coinciding with Chauncey Billups' arrival to Denver. Here are some facts:
-Carmelo Anthony is still just 25 Years Old. He's still getting better, as he's entering his peak years now.
-'Melo has never had any serious injuries; in fact, the reason he's piled up some missed games throughout his career has been due to DUIs (and throwing punches...) which account for more than half of his missed time.
A huge component of this draft is long term success. Long term success is closely tied in with age (players tend to peak around 26/27 and plateau until 30, after which they experience a mellow decline for many years until they are no longer legit NBA players) and health (players that are constantly dinged up miss games - or peak early and fade faster). The way I see it, I get Carmelo as a beast for 5 years at his current level. After that he will be useful for a few more. Or, I can sign him to a max/7yr deal and be happy that he'll be a franchise guy.
Not to hate on some other teams, but of the guys taken ahead of Carmelo...
-Durant is not a proven leader. I know it sounds ridiculous, and I love the kid, but he's never even touched the playoffs. Who knows how much his play will fall off when it matters?
-Wade has missed more than 65 games in 6+ seasons and is already 28. It's arguable he's better than Carmelo THIS year (I'd lean towards Wade) but what about next year? The year after? I take Carmelo
-The Bean is already battling a multitude of injuries right now, and without taking time off for them to heal, they will linger + persist. Yes, he's playing amazing basketball right now, but the man turns 32 soon.
-B Waaaa... Defense is half the game. Although he's Carmelo's equal on the offensive end, he still is a very marginal defender. Carmelo is now quite a bit better than marginal.
Anyway, Carmelo has a unique playing style which the rest of my team will emphasize as well as augment: He can get the ball from any spot on the floor, and immediately seeks contact by driving to the basket. He has a godly 9.5 FTA/36 this year, and since he's logging a terrific 37.6 mpg this season, actually is getting to the line 9.9 times a game. I really think drawing fouls is vital: Only Dwight Howard takes more free throws. Further, Carmelo is actually pretty elite in that he touches the ball an insane amount in the offense (34.1 USG%) and yet has a measly turnover rate (9.8%, which for a primary option, a single digit TOV% is incredible).
Oh, did I mention the man has a 56.9 TS? Meaning, he plays extended minutes; is responsible for more than a third of the teams possessions; rarely do those possessions result in a turnover; and finally shoots at an above-average rate! (In fact, 2% more than average, which is ELITE) The fact that Carmelo can also play off-ball (35.5% 3pt shooter which is around league average, 6.3 OREB% which is a good bit better than league average relative to SFs) means I can position him however I'd like on the offense. These raw stats result in his career-high 25.0 PER, fwiw.
I mentioned Carmelo is better than Roy due to defense, and I truly mean that. The art of defense involves several factors: Denying good shots. Rebounding misses (and therefore preventing your opponent from gather 2nd chance points). Forcing turnovers. And not fouling your opponent. At 6'8 (and willing to take the tough assignments in the 4th) coupled w/ Carmelo's counterpart data, it seems as though 'Melo is about league average with regard to forcing misses. However, he has a strong rebounding edge on SFs (by nearly 25%), has solid steal rates, and doesn't foul often. Couple this with above-average DAPMs, and although I'll often use a different wing for the tough matchups (until the 4th Q, anyway) it means my wing defense will be quite decent.
Oh, a writeup would not be complete without acknowledgment of APM. Carmelo's 2yr APM stands at +5.22, which makes him a legit All-Star and top end player. And he's only getting better.
*Note Carmelo gives me flexibility, due to his strength/size, to play him at the 4 in certain small ball situations. Although I doubt I'll do this too often (he's like the perfect SF) flexibility and versatility are great things. Especially in the playoffs where match ups become more important.
09-23-2010
, 11:38 PM
09-23-2010
, 11:38 PM
09-23-2010
, 11:40 PM
09-23-2010
, 11:42 PM
09-23-2010
, 11:43 PM
09-23-2010
, 11:44 PM
09-23-2010
, 11:45 PM
09-23-2010
, 11:47 PM
Quote:
Brees > Brady in this and it's not recency bias. Brees has been dominant with significantly worst talent at receiver IMO. He has made undrafted WR. He does have some talent with undrafted RB, but backup undrafted RB has been just as good. I know they have used some early picks on WRs lately but it doesn't matter. Brady has only been super dominant in the undrafted one of the GOAT WR era and GOAT slot WR era. Obviously still good but I prefer Brees in this.
Rivers is also a good pick. I might have taken him over Brady but obviously Brady has the WIM.....or maybe he has a GOAT coach, and when he won 3 titles--a ******ed good D.
Rivers is also a good pick. I might have taken him over Brady but obviously Brady has the WIM.....or maybe he has a GOAT coach, and when he won 3 titles--a ******ed good D.
