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Old 03-28-2012, 02:57 PM   #26151
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Forum Discussion

Thats a super poast
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Old 03-28-2012, 03:10 PM   #26152
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Forum Discussion

DVaut1 is dropping some nuggets of scrumptious amazingness in the Romney vs Obama thread, F the haters
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Don't get me wrong, that Romney story about his dog on the roof is the dumbest ****, America deserves to be nuked into oblivion from space for talking so much about it, so I can only imagine how much it's of keen interest to America's morons and how much play it will get into November.

I maintain Romney would have been better served strapping his house servants to the roof rather than a dog. Like if his autobiography was, oh, we strapped Maddie the house cleaner to the roof and took them to DisneyWorld to help keep the hotel room clean, half of America would be like how magnanimous, the help got a free trip to DisneyWorld or Yosemite or wherever they were going. This gets political play because EVERYONE loves dogs but we can probably all think of dozens of humans we've love to strap to the roof of our car and drive down the highway with and whip them with 60mph winds or whatever, because we hate them or hold them in such low-esteem or whatever. No one feels that way about dogs though. Romney just strapped the wrong species to his roof, common mistake.
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Old 03-28-2012, 03:20 PM   #26153
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Forum Discussion

Had to go google the Romney dog story. LOL politics.
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Old 03-28-2012, 03:33 PM   #26154
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Forum Discussion

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Originally Posted by Karak View Post
read somewhere that the guy was going to visit kids in the hospital and the cops eventually helped him out to make sure he got there
I'd believe that; months ago I actually saw this guy leaving the hospital. It was pretty surreal.
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Old 03-28-2012, 03:47 PM   #26155
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Forum Discussion

Spoiler alert: I win $500 million this friday
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Old 03-28-2012, 03:56 PM   #26156
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Forum Discussion

I make a bunch of stupid -EV wagers for reasonably high sums of money for no reason at all (not baller by any means, but higher than average), yet the only time I actually feel shame is when I buy a $5 lotto ticket
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Old 03-28-2012, 03:57 PM   #26157
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Forum Discussion

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I make a bunch of stupid -EV wagers for reasonably high sums of money for no reason at all (not baller by any means, but higher than average), yet the only time I actually feel shame is when I buy a $5 lotto ticket
I havent looked but Mega Millions has to be pretty close to neutral EV, right? If not even +EV.
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Old 03-28-2012, 03:58 PM   #26158
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Forum Discussion

Oh and I just bought 2.
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Old 03-28-2012, 04:05 PM   #26159
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Forum Discussion

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I havent looked but Mega Millions has to be pretty close to neutral EV, right? If not even +EV.
i am pretty sure it's still -EV because you'll split the jackpot more often than you expect.

and because of taxes.
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Old 03-28-2012, 04:05 PM   #26160
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Forum Discussion

[Phill]: 150+ posts (and presumably counting) in that Trayvon Martin lolitards thread. Even if you throw out the fifty or so posts where he's gargling Fly's nuts it's still more than enough to know that the thread is AIDS without needing to open it.
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Old 03-28-2012, 04:06 PM   #26161
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Forum Discussion

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Originally Posted by sylar View Post
i am pretty sure it's still -EV because you'll split the jackpot more often than you expect.

and because of taxes.
Ya.. but it has to be pretty marginal EV, I'd imagine. I'm assuming it is approaching neutral EV at this point.

But you're right I didn't even think of taxes.
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Old 03-28-2012, 04:30 PM   #26162
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Forum Discussion

Depends on the numbers you play too. If youre picking numbers that are picked by a lot of people (I assume numbers below 31 for bdays, sequential stuff, etc.) then you split more often than otherwise. I think a realistic estimate of the EV of a ticket is a loss of 20-50%. Even at this amount it is a terrible gamble from a pure EV perspective. I think you need to be looking at around a $1B prize before neutral comes into the equation with the lump sum and tax hits you'll take plus chances of a split. I would lol so hard if it came out 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and got split a couple thousand ways. Other than someone in my family winning that is the optimal outcome for lifeEV.
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Old 03-28-2012, 04:31 PM   #26163
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Forum Discussion

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Depends on the numbers you play too. If youre picking numbers that are picked by a lot of people (I assume numbers below 31 for bdays, sequential stuff, etc.) then you split more often than otherwise. I think a realistic estimate of the EV of a ticket is a loss of 20-50%. Even at this amount it is a terrible gamble from a pure EV perspective. I think you need to be looking at around a $1T prize before neutral comes into the equation with the lump sum and tax hits you'll take plus chances of a split. I would lol so hard if it came out 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and got split a couple thousand ways. Other than someone in my family winning that is the optimal outcome for lifeEV.
Wait.. you think lots of people actually play 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6? I would assume casuallotteryplayer would assume that is less likely than other random numbers and wouldn't play it.
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Old 03-28-2012, 04:37 PM   #26164
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Forum Discussion

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Wait.. you think lots of people actually play 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6? I would assume casuallotteryplayer would assume that is less likely than other random numbers and wouldn't play it.
just think about it this way though, the jackpot increased by over $100 million this week. How many tickets get bought for that? At least 100 million right? If only 1 out of 100,000 people picks that (not a stretch imo) then this getting split 1,000 ways. Its not like you need a "lot" of people to do it given the quantity of tickets sold. I am pretty confident that it has to be the most played combination of numbers out there.
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Old 03-28-2012, 04:38 PM   #26165
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Forum Discussion

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just think about it this way though, the jackpot increased by over $100 million this week. How many tickets get bought for that? At least 100 million right? If only 1 out of 100,000 people picks that (not a stretch imo) then tis getting split 1,000 ways. Its not like you need a "lot" of people to do it given the quantity of tickets sold. I am pretty confident that it has to be the most played combination of numbers out there.
Interesting.. I would have thought 1-6 would be among the least common played because of aforementioned reasons.
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Old 03-28-2012, 04:41 PM   #26166
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Forum Discussion

God why bring the politics in here you ******s.
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Old 03-28-2012, 04:44 PM   #26167
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Forum Discussion

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Interesting.. I would have thought 1-6 would be among the least common played because of aforementioned reasons.
I dont know any of this for a fact, but even if most people consciously avoid things like that all it takes is a handful of people thinking "I bet no one else does this so I will." I mean, if you think its among the least common combos of numbers then thats the ticket you should be buying right? Even if you think its less common than the average ticket you would fair better picking that than going random which I assume is what you did with your tickets. Do you disagree?

I would think that consciously picking numbers in a tight range, but not sequential is probably the best way to avoid a chop just because when people think of picking numbers the human brain conceives random as being spaced out. something like 34, 37, 38, 39, 44, 46 seems like it would be an above average play to me, but I'm not sure how many people are actively trying to maximize EV by their number selection and it could **** me if there are enough of them.
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Old 03-28-2012, 04:45 PM   #26168
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Forum Discussion

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Originally Posted by CalledDownLight View Post
I dont know any of this for a fact, but even if most people consciously avoid things like that all it takes is a handful of people thinking "I bet no one else does this so I will." I mean, if you think its among the least common combos of numbers then thats the ticket you should be buying right? Even if you think its less common than the average ticket you would fair better picking that than going random which I assume is what you did with your tickets. Do you disagree?

I would think that consciously picking numbers in a tight range, but not sequential is probably the best way to avoid a chop just because when people think of picking numbers the human brain conceives random as being spaced out. something like 34, 37, 38, 39, 44, 46 seems like it would be an above average play to me, but I'm not sure how many people are actively trying to maximize EV by their number selection and it could **** me if there are enough of them.
Haha, I once did buy exactly that ticket thinking it would be less likely to chop, not more likely.
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Old 03-28-2012, 04:46 PM   #26169
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Forum Discussion

It seems like I've heard a lot of stories about people who win lotteries by playing birthdates, etc. I don't even know how you do this. Do you tell the clerk what numbers you want? Do you have to bring a pen and fill out a form? I'll probably buy a ticket because it's ****ing $500 million dollars and what the hell, but when I do I'll just ask them for a Megamillions ticket and it's just random numbers.
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Old 03-28-2012, 04:54 PM   #26170
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Forum Discussion

thoughts on buying the same ticket for the first 5 and then all the possible megaballs to avoid the sweat and increase life expectancy in the cases you hit the first 5?
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Old 03-28-2012, 04:56 PM   #26171
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Forum Discussion

I've also thought it would be pretty boss to buy multiple of the same ticket so when you chop you get more than "your share." It is dilutive though.

Plus, if they make you talk to the media with other winners it would have hilarious implications, especially if some dont understand why you won more.
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Old 03-28-2012, 05:01 PM   #26172
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Forum Discussion

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Originally Posted by CalledDownLight View Post
Plus, if they make you talk to the media with other winners it would have hilarious implications, especially if some dont understand why you won more.
Given the general IQ of people who play the lottery, confusion and anger is a certainty.
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Old 03-28-2012, 05:21 PM   #26173
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Forum Discussion

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Originally Posted by SirOsis View Post
It seems like I've heard a lot of stories about people who win lotteries by playing birthdates, etc. I don't even know how you do this. Do you tell the clerk what numbers you want? Do you have to bring a pen and fill out a form? I'll probably buy a ticket because it's ****ing $500 million dollars and what the hell, but when I do I'll just ask them for a Megamillions ticket and it's just random numbers.
You have a standard card that has your numbers on it so then you just hand it over the counter when you want your lotto done. No need for filling out cards every time.
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Old 03-28-2012, 05:30 PM   #26174
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Forum Discussion

bros,

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Old 03-28-2012, 05:49 PM   #26175
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Originally Posted by CalledDownLight View Post
thoughts on buying the same ticket for the first 5 and then all the possible megaballs to avoid the sweat and increase life expectancy in the cases you hit the first 5?
This just happened in MI where the person played the same 5 numbers and different mega ball number hit all 5 numbers so won 1.25m I believe
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