SirRawr's 2016 Superb Owl Squares - Page 7 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

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SirRawr's 2016 Superb Owl Squares

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02-03-2016 , 11:37 PM

#151

mullen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 17,680

I'll be rooting for safeties

Quote

02-03-2016 , 11:43 PM

#152

digables

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 15,756

Found it

Looks like my EV is 187.5 not considering positional team advantage.

I have both the best and the worst square funny enough

0,7 and 2,2

Quote

02-03-2016 , 11:44 PM

#153

younguns87

POG gonan POG

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 60,889

Probabliities according to some guy

Square(s) PCT
---------------
70/07 3.80
74/47 3.71
03/30 3.21
41/14 2.23
04/40 2.04
71/17 1.93
77 1.93
73/37 1.93
00 1.71
63/36 1.63
44 1.59
60/06 1.54
01/10 1.48
34/43 1.45
18/81 1.35
33 1.19
31/13 1.00
80/08 0.95
16/61 0.95
76/67 0.89
11 0.85
78/87 0.83
64/46 0.82
97/79 0.80
57/75 0.76
90/09 0.74
84/48 0.72
93/39 0.72
50/05 0.72
58/85 0.69
69/96 0.69
49/94 0.67
24/42 0.65
83/38 0.61
02/20 0.56
91/19 0.56
66 0.56
32/23 0.54
35/53 0.52
45/54 0.50
86/68 0.48
72/27 0.46
88 0.41
26/62 0.35
21/12 0.33
52/25 0.33
92/29 0.32
89/98 0.30
95/59 0.24
15/51 0.24
65/56 0.22
82/28 0.22
99 0.19
55 0.19
22 0.04

http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomi...x.php/2005/01/

prolly slightly changed given the added chance of missed PATs now

Quote

02-04-2016 , 12:41 AM

#154

spring83

Jack of all trades

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 3,372

How is 4-7 the 2nd best numbers? Seems like 0-0 should be higher; 3-0 too.

Quote

02-04-2016 , 12:57 AM

#155

bottomset

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 26,356

sent tonight for my squares

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02-04-2016 , 01:29 AM

#156

Searix

NFL Swami Overlord

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 19,233

Quote:

Originally Posted by spring83

How is 4-7 the 2nd best numbers? Seems like 0-0 should be higher; 3-0 too.

The article linked only looked at final scores of the regular season from 1994-2005. With a 1st quarter bonus, obviously things like 0/0, 0/3, and 0/7 become a LOT more popular.

Then add in scores have gone up since 2005, extra points are less likely, and 2 years ago the super bowl started off with a SAFETY, and you can see how those odds aren't very accurate at all

Quote

02-04-2016 , 01:42 AM

#157

pokergrader

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 9,757

Oh man my squares are nasty. I'll do the EVs like I did last year...

Quote

02-04-2016 , 02:08 AM

#158

pokergrader

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 9,757

Code:

Player              Total EV   Entry   EV/Square
CPHoya              $193.54    $ 50     $96.77
pokergrader         $158.64    $ 50     $79.32
tabbaker            $103.78    $ 50     $51.89
shaft88             $178.76    $100     $44.69
GBP04               $ 79.31    $ 50     $39.65
digables            $195.42    $125     $39.08
Biesterfield        $144.41    $100     $36.10
kkcountry           $105.60    $100     $26.40
vyk07               $ 52.50    $ 50     $26.25
TeeJayorTJ          $125.15    $125     $25.03
Searix              $ 98.79    $100     $24.70
trigstarr           $122.90    $125     $24.58
NoFear3838          $ 98.08    $100     $24.52
Tom Ames            $122.39    $125     $24.48
Sven O              $108.37    $125     $21.67
spring83            $ 85.93    $100     $21.48
phoox               $ 71.90    $100     $17.97
TehVader            $ 71.01    $100     $17.75
Bidz                $ 68.03    $100     $17.01
Namath12            $ 16.90    $ 25     $16.90
Nootka              $ 30.52    $ 50     $15.26
sterfry9            $ 58.00    $100     $14.50
mdot20              $ 60.28    $125     $12.06
mullen              $ 23.11    $ 50     $11.55
JN1D                $ 40.45    $100     $10.11
cs3dt               $ 34.26    $100     $ 8.56
SirRawrsALot        $ 40.19    $125     $ 8.04
Stellamoose         $ 11.79    $ 50     $ 5.90

I just took the scores from the 1st-4th quarters of every game this season and then simulated the draw a few million times picking the quarter scores randomly. So this will account for the wonky new numbers based on the longer extra point, but it wont account for any specific likelihood of scores based on Carolina or Denver. I'm sure it could be made more accurate but it is close enough for something that doesn't matter.

Quote

02-04-2016 , 02:53 AM

#159

Searix

NFL Swami Overlord

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 19,233

exactly even ev is pretty much what i thought

leggo 4/4, 4/6, 6/4, and 6/8

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02-04-2016 , 04:17 AM

#160

TeeJayOrTJ

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 5,380

Willing to cash out my 15 cents and call it a day

Quote

02-04-2016 , 04:52 AM

#161

pokergrader

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 9,757

Well I couldn't help myself and came up with a better model that is a 50/50 split between just the raw probabilities of numbers showing up and the actual number pairs that occurred in games. This will lower the probability of pairs like (0, 0) or (7, 7) because those numbers are less likely to be the final scores because some percentage of the time those are a tie and it goes to overtime.

Also I've included the percentage chance of winning every quarter so you know when you should be sweating (scroll to the right to see them all)

Code:

Player              Total EV   Entry   EV/Square    1st         2nd        3rd       Final
CPHoya              $176.50    $ 50     $88.25     17.5 %      7.6 %      6.5 %      3.9 %
pokergrader         $165.87    $ 50     $82.94     10.1 %      7.7 %      6.1 %      5.3 %
tabbaker            $106.72    $ 50     $53.36      3.7 %      5.3 %      4.7 %      3.8 %
shaft88             $179.33    $100     $44.83     11.6 %      7.9 %      6.6 %      5.7 %
GBP04               $ 79.70    $ 50     $39.85      2.6 %      3.4 %      3.6 %      3.1 %
digables            $187.77    $125     $37.55     11.9 %      8.0 %      7.0 %      6.2 %
Biesterfield        $145.02    $100     $36.26      9.1 %      5.9 %      4.4 %      5.2 %
trigstarr           $134.18    $125     $26.84      5.2 %      4.7 %      4.9 %      5.9 %
TeeJayorTJ          $130.74    $125     $26.15      5.3 %      5.7 %      5.2 %      5.0 %
NoFear3838          $100.09    $100     $25.02      1.5 %      4.2 %      4.8 %      4.4 %
kkcountry           $ 99.18    $100     $24.80      1.2 %      3.9 %      4.7 %      4.6 %
Searix              $ 98.57    $100     $24.64      0.9 %      4.2 %      4.1 %      4.6 %
vyk07               $ 45.89    $ 50     $22.94      1.3 %      2.1 %      2.1 %      1.8 %
Sven O              $111.16    $125     $22.23      5.0 %      5.2 %      3.8 %      4.1 %
spring83            $ 87.77    $100     $21.94      1.5 %      3.5 %      4.2 %      3.9 %
Tom Ames            $109.10    $125     $21.82      5.7 %      4.7 %      4.6 %      3.7 %
TehVader            $ 76.95    $100     $19.24      2.1 %      2.8 %      3.1 %      3.5 %
phoox               $ 76.72    $100     $19.18      2.1 %      2.8 %      2.9 %      3.5 %
Nootka              $ 35.64    $ 50     $17.82      0.0 %      0.8 %      1.5 %      2.1 %
Bidz                $ 63.40    $100     $15.85      0.3 %      2.5 %      2.8 %      3.1 %
Namath12            $ 15.73    $ 25     $15.73      0.2 %      0.3 %      0.8 %      0.9 %
sterfry9            $ 52.98    $100     $13.24      0.4 %      1.2 %      2.2 %      3.1 %
mdot20              $ 65.16    $125     $13.03      0.6 %      2.5 %      3.0 %      3.1 %
mullen              $ 24.86    $ 50     $12.43      0.1 %      0.5 %      1.2 %      1.4 %
JN1D                $ 40.84    $100     $10.21      0.0 %      1.0 %      1.5 %      2.4 %
cs3dt               $ 35.45    $100     $ 8.86      0.0 %      0.6 %      1.2 %      2.3 %
SirRawrsALot        $ 39.98    $125     $ 8.00      0.0 %      0.8 %      2.0 %      2.3 %
Stellamoose         $ 14.67    $ 50     $ 7.34      0.0 %      0.1 %      0.3 %      1.1 %

Quote

02-04-2016 , 05:24 AM

#162

Rawlz517

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 58,505

So don't even bother watching the 1st?

Quote

02-04-2016 , 05:40 AM

#163

Rawlz517

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 58,505

Pool 2
-----------
housenuts (1)
rmthawk64 (1)
mr ryan mack (2)
Kyle (4)

Quote

02-04-2016 , 08:54 AM

#164

REDeYeS00

always sloppy

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 25,153

pay up pool 2!!!

Quote

02-04-2016 , 10:30 AM

#165

thedeezy

My name is Carlos

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 26,261

Srsly

Quote

02-04-2016 , 10:58 AM

#166

Biesterfield

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 8,042

good stuff pokergrader

nice riggeage CPHoya

Quote

02-04-2016 , 11:51 AM

#167

Tom Ames

Thinks outside the bots

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 49,306

Poor SirRawrs.

He does all the legwork and takes the biggest Sklansky-bucks hit.

Quote

02-04-2016 , 01:55 PM

#168

five4suited

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 9,026

hey CP, I'll buy your squares for $90. instant profit!

Quote

02-04-2016 , 01:57 PM

#169

digables

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 15,756

Peyton will prob takw an early safety

Quote

02-04-2016 , 02:03 PM

#170

Stellamoose

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 522

Quote:

Originally Posted by five4suited

hey CP, I'll buy your squares for $90. instant profit!

bid $90.25

See where this is headed?

GL to all...enjoy the game!

Quote

02-04-2016 , 03:30 PM

#171

Omar Comin

fantasy failure

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 27,348

is there room in pool 2?

Quote

02-04-2016 , 07:33 PM

#172

LimpDitka

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 4,222

Make a pool 3

Quote

02-04-2016 , 08:51 PM

#173

REDeYeS00

always sloppy

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 25,153

Quote:

Originally Posted by SirRawrsALot

PMs sent.

A friend from work is buying 4. Think that leaves 14 left.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SirRawrsALot

Pool 2
-----------
housenuts (1)
rmthawk64 (1)
mr ryan mack (2)
Kyle (4)

is Kyle your friend from work? 2+2 username 'Kyle' hasn't posted since 2012.

Quote

02-04-2016 , 09:18 PM

#174

Rawlz517

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 58,505

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReDeYES88

is Kyle your friend from work? 2+2 username 'Kyle' hasn't posted since 2012.

Yeah, he's paying me tomorrow.

sent a final warning PM to hawk/mack. housenuts has posted ITT that he's just waiting for his PP to load.

Quote

02-05-2016 , 09:43 AM

#175

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 52,862

Quote:

Originally Posted by SirRawrsALot

Pool 2
-----------
housenuts (1)
rmthawk64 (1)
mr ryan mack (2)
Kyle (4)

paid

Quote

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