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Page 84 of 2462

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01-26-2016 , 10:51 AM

#2076

ikestoys

banned

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 94,424

404 not found

Quote

01-26-2016 , 11:05 AM

#2077

Shark Sandwich

1-2-teddied

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 20,503

goddammit

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_a..._go_wrong.html

The fact remains:

LOL NATE SILVER

Quote

01-26-2016 , 11:20 AM

#2078

suzzer99

Save the Cheerleader, Save the World

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 100,195

Trump is like a sea change event. Those are really hard to predict.

Quote

01-26-2016 , 11:25 AM

#2079

BAIDS

2013 FA Cup winner

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 32,645

its his job to predict hard to predict stuff

Quote

01-26-2016 , 11:26 AM

#2080

Shark Sandwich

1-2-teddied

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 20,503

Quote:

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Trump is like a sea change event. Those are really hard to predict.

When you see that sea change slowly unfolding before your eyes and people are making money off it, there's really no excuse to bury your head in the sand and say "WELL ACTUALLY JEB IS WINNING THE ENDORSEMENT PRIMARY AND AS WE ALL KNOW THATS WHAT REALLY MATTERS."

When you're a supposed data guru you need to be more than just a spreadsheet monkey who uses the past to predict the future when it's become eminently clear that the environment has changed.

Quote

01-26-2016 , 11:30 AM

#2081

suzzer99

Save the Cheerleader, Save the World

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 100,195

I'm just saying Nate is at his strongest when there's a precedent and pattern to crunch his data into. In a phase change like what's happening with Trump, where a whole wing of the Republican Party is basically defecting, his guess is a good as good as the rest of ours apparently.

Quote

01-26-2016 , 11:42 AM

#2082

Shark Sandwich

1-2-teddied

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 20,503

Quote:

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Then he should have stuck to his knitting. But instead he's declared loudly and often that Trump's campaign is doomed. It's as hubristic as his absurd Brazil predictions, but much worse because politics is ostensibly what he's good at.

LOL NATE SILVER

Quote

01-26-2016 , 11:52 AM

#2083

shane88888

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 8,984

What else would you expect out of a Chicago-trained, New Deal denialist economist like Nate Silver?

Quote

01-26-2016 , 11:52 AM

#2084

suzzer99

Save the Cheerleader, Save the World

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 100,195

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shark Sandwich

Yeah good point.

Quote

01-26-2016 , 11:56 AM

#2085

Noze

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Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 25,711

Damn, Shark must have strapped on his big boy heels today. Coming in HOT.

Quote

01-26-2016 , 12:48 PM

#2086

Pwn_Master

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 8,766

**** yeah, Trump should shoot Nate Silver on the street! He is a loser! Trump's fans would love it, it would be spectacular, a huge success!

Quote

01-26-2016 , 12:52 PM

#2087

Pwn_Master

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 8,766

Nate Silver forgot the golden rule, never underestimate the stupidity of the American public.

Quote

01-26-2016 , 12:52 PM

#2088

Shark Sandwich

1-2-teddied

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 20,503

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pwn_Master

**** yeah, Trump should shoot Nate Silver on the street! He is a loser! Trump's fans would love it, it would be spectacular, a huge success!

According to my advanced multivariate analysis that would propel Trump's poll numbers into the 95%+ range

Quote

01-26-2016 , 12:53 PM

#2089

Wooders0n

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Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 24,820

I still think there's a decent chance that polling is just broken and Trump and Bernie both get their ass's kicked in primaries.

Quote

01-26-2016 , 12:56 PM

#2090

TrollyWantACracker

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 4,191

Keep in mind that polling only includes people who are able to figure out how a phone works. That's going to under-count Trump's support by at least 10 percent.

Quote

01-26-2016 , 12:59 PM

#2091

Shark Sandwich

1-2-teddied

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 20,503

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wooders0n

I still think there's a decent chance that polling is just broken and Trump and Bernie both get their ass's kicked in primaries.

Best case scenario is Jeb getting like 8% in NH. He stays in the race and desperately tries to sell more guac bowls to keep his failure of a campaign afloat and Trump gets to keep bullying him at every turn.

Quote

01-26-2016 , 01:01 PM

#2092

ludacris

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Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 12,277

Quote:

Originally Posted by TrollyWantACracker

Keep in mind that polling only includes people who are able to figure out how a phone works. That's going to under-count Trump's support by at least 10 percent.

The polling generally skews to including more olds. We all know Hillary is popular among the olds and Bernie is popular among the youngs. I think the fact that they are neck and neck in Iowa bodes well for Bernie.

Republicans are more consistent over the age spectrum, except Rand takes some votes from Jeb? and Trump.

Quote

01-26-2016 , 02:21 PM

#2093

wheatrich

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 21,405

One problem nate has is that he can't be as wrong repeatedly and still cash some damn nice checks like the rest of election punditry but he's in a world where boldness gets the clicks. His continued thinking that people don't like trump so he won't win is misguided, nobody likes hillary either and bern's a socialist (and trump's gonna kill bern in media coverage).

Also everyone's gonna change their tune after the nomination and people will fall for it like they always do.

Quote

01-26-2016 , 02:28 PM

#2094

SenorKeeed

mew mew mew

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 37,478

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pwn_Master

**** yeah, Trump should shoot Nate Silver on the street! He is a loser! Trump's fans would love it, it would be spectacular, a huge success!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shark Sandwich

According to my advanced multivariate analysis that would propel Trump's poll numbers into the 95%+ range

Probable headline "TRUMP shoots chinless vagrant in self defense, nation rallies behind him"

Quote

01-26-2016 , 05:26 PM

#2095

suzzer99

Save the Cheerleader, Save the World

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 100,195

Fox News head will let Trump walk before replacing Megyn Kelly as debate moderator

Hypothetical: Trump walks over and takes a dump on stage right in front of Kelly. How much do his poll #s go up the next day?

Quote

01-26-2016 , 05:33 PM

#2096

ikestoys

banned

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 94,424

Suzzer you're really just going to ignore that you claim that the kochs bought the curriculum in elementary schools didn't happen?

Quote

01-26-2016 , 05:49 PM

#2097

SenorKeeed

mew mew mew

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 37,478

Quote:

Originally Posted by ikestoys

Suzzer you're really just going to ignore that you claim that the kochs bought the curriculum in elementary schools didn't happen?

Uh bro the story you link to says no such thing. It confirms that

Quote:

The classes are taught by USD 501 teachers with support from Youth Entrepreneurs.

and Youth Entrepreneurs is a Koch funded organization. So, as always, it's really not clear what the **** you're talking about here.

Quote

01-26-2016 , 07:03 PM

#2098

suzzer99

Save the Cheerleader, Save the World

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 100,195

Also I believe I can talk about ignore over here - so thankfully I don't see too many ikes posts.

Quote

01-26-2016 , 07:07 PM

#2099

ikestoys

banned

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 94,424

Keeed suzzer claimed elementary school kids and that it was part of the curriculum. It wasn't.

Suzzer closing your eyes when confronted with new information is lame.