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SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics) SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics)

11-29-2018 , 10:47 PM
Quote:
The Hoarse Whisperer @HoarseWisperer

HUGE.

Baked into Cohen’s plea agreement:

The right for Mueller to describe the totality of Cohen’s involvement in criminality (including matters not included in the plea) at Cohen’s sentencing.

Translation: Mueller guts Trump like a fish in open court on December 12th.
big if true
SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics) Quote
11-29-2018 , 10:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Holliday
I'm a lot more worried about Chuck and Nancy trying to "find common ground" and "bipartisan" whatever and demonstrate they can work with the Trump administration and compromise their way to popularity and wind up giving him enough wins to get him re-elected because democratic voters are so deflated between getting that instead of the *resistance* they wanted AND getting Hillary as their nominee again.
"Hey guys, we just won the popular vote by 7 million votes and saw the largest precentage of voter turnout ever. Do we...do we have a mandate?"-Chuck to Nancy (probably)
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11-29-2018 , 10:51 PM
(Checks donor list)

"Nope!"
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11-29-2018 , 10:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 72off
i would imagine at some point the GOP toss him overboard
like how does he even run again in 2 years given all of this? (assuming that he's still alive)
That's how it has to happen. It was a group of Republicans that told Nixon he was going to get got and could either resign or face the music. The same will have to happen to Trump. If enough purple state Senators tell him he's ****ed, that's game over.
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11-29-2018 , 11:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RT
"Hey guys, we just won the popular vote by 7 million votes and saw the largest precentage of voter turnout ever. Do we...do we have a mandate?"-Chuck to Nancy (probably)
Right up there with, "Hey we just got a black man elected President by running on healthcare for all while we own the legislature--let's negotiate it down with ourselves so the moderates who are behind the move all get ****canned in their next election!"
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11-29-2018 , 11:27 PM
Trump can go out on top(in his mind) if he doesn't run, which is all that matters in the decision. He'll also still have the hordes of idiots adoring him everywhere too.
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11-30-2018 , 12:24 AM
he won't be alive for much longer


getting fatter & more mush-brained by the day
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11-30-2018 , 11:57 AM
Meanwhile, in St. Louis:

Quote:
Three St. Louis police officers were charged on Thursday with beating up an apparent protester who turned out to be an undercover detective on their own team, the authorities said.

Prosecutors obtained an indictment against a fourth officer on charges that she conspired to help the three cover up the beating.
Personally I find it a little weird that it took over a year to get to this point, however they did get some intriguing evidence like text messages between the same cops earlier in the day talking about how super awesome it was going to be to beat protesters that night plus the revelation that the chief of police is "deeply disappointed" in them.

Oh, and in case you're wondering; by holding down on the ground and with a baton.
Also in case you were wondering; was supposed to be gathering evidence on which protesters to arrest.
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11-30-2018 , 04:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RT
"They're going to crack Don Jr. like an egg on National Television"-Steve Bannon shortly after he was fired last year.



I honestly don't think he can.

If what we're seeing now is true and Mueller has enough to know that Manafort was lying without needing him, then that means he's already got Don Jr, Eric and probably Ivanka dead to rights. Trump can't pardon his kids without continuing to erode his already eroding base and the midterms showed us, his base won't be enough to carry 2020 in the Presidential race nor the much friendlier Senate.

Literally the same number of people turned out to vote for Democratic candidates in the midterms as turned out to vote for Hillary in 2016. That has never happened in the history of the Republic. Trump is already in deep **** in 2020 and going full on mob boss to save his family from the noose is just going to end up kicking the chair out from under himself.

Plus, even if you think he just says "**** it" since he never really wanted the job anyway, is fine leaving after one term, playing the victim, and starting TrumpTV or whatever, remember that a lot of these crimes that are being unearthed are going to have opposites (or even totally new crimes) on the state level, and those he's powerless to pardon. Mueller is going to **** his world and anyone close to him's world up.
and trump still wins the presidency bc he will carry ohio and florida. doesnt matter if he loses popular by 6m.
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11-30-2018 , 05:44 PM
Dems can still easily win EC without OH or FL. They just need to drive turnout in the Midwest, and after going Trump in 16 they all went back to the good guys in the midterms.
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11-30-2018 , 07:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Victor
and trump still wins the presidency bc he will carry ohio and florida. doesnt matter if he loses popular by 6m.
Wat

Trump won 304 to 227 in 2016 with OH and FL

If the Dems flip WI, PA, and NC (10, 20, and 15 respectively) that total goes to 259-272. GG, Blue wins. Add in MI (16) and you're at 243-288.

That says nothing of FL's felons getting their voting rights back and the likely blue lean that probably has.

Run someone that doesn't bring every single deplorable out of the woodwork and let Trump energize your base and you're good.
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12-01-2018 , 02:22 AM
George Bush dead at 94
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12-01-2018 , 04:09 AM
It is not crazy to say that Texas is more likely to go blue in 2020 than Ohio.
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12-01-2018 , 06:26 AM
It's not exactly easy to flip 3 out of WI NC PA MI. And esp lol at FL felons saving us.
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12-01-2018 , 08:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Victor
It's not exactly easy to flip 3 out of WI NC PA MI. And esp lol at FL felons saving us.
NC was a poor example on my part. With their districts getting shut down, their reps will be more evenly divided, but it's going to take a pretty stellar candidate to bring them into the mix (something like 2008 when NC and IN both went blue somehow). Still, WI, PA, and MI are pretty easy flips as far as history is concerned:

1996:
WI: Dem +10.4%
PA: Dem +9.1%
MI: Dem +13.3%

2000:
WI: Dem +0.2%
PA: Dem +4.1%
MI: Dem +5.1%

2004:
WI: Dem +0.4%
PA: Dem +2.5%
MI: Dem +3.4%

2008:
WI: Dem +13.9%
PA: Dem +10.3%
MI: Dem +17.4%

2012:
WI: Dem +6.9%
PA: Dem +5.4%
MI: Dem +9.5%

2016:
WI: Rep +0.8%
PA: Rep +0.7%
MI: Rep +0.2%

I dunno man, kinda feels like maybe those states are winnable with a strategy that is anything more than "They don't exist".

Re: FL.

2000: 538 total votes
2004: Rep +5%
2008: Dem +2.8%
2012: Dem +0.9%
2016: Rep +1.2%

If you don't think adding 1 million plus voters to the rolls, a disproportionate amount of which are minorities might benefit Democrats, I'm not sure what else to say.
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12-01-2018 , 12:21 PM
is the FL felon thing something the governor could easily overrule?
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12-01-2018 , 12:48 PM
those midwest places may not fall for the 'i will bring all your jobs back' thing a second time round given that 0 jobs have come back while GM etc keep closing plants

then again it would be unwise to bank on the critical thinking skills of a group of people who voted in a literal game show host as president
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12-01-2018 , 01:09 PM
The whites will show up and vote for literally any GOP nominee. The key to winning the Midwest is turning out everyone else.
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12-01-2018 , 03:48 PM
The Florida felon thing is good for Dems but likely not game changing. I saw somewhere the eligible felon voter rate was around 15% and lower for minorities. While minorities are disproportionately represented in the felon population the white red neck group is still a majority or nearly so. Picking up a net 20k votes could certainly make the difference but not enough if an uninspiring candidate is nominated.

Hell, the Alabama GOP controlled legislature recently enfranchised a large portion of the currently serving prison population so how good can it really be for Dems?
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12-01-2018 , 04:07 PM
Those currently serving will probably vote GOP or go to solitary.
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12-01-2018 , 05:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Palo
The Florida felon thing is good for Dems but likely not game changing. I saw somewhere the eligible felon voter rate was around 15% and lower for minorities. While minorities are disproportionately represented in the felon population the white red neck group is still a majority or nearly so. Picking up a net 20k votes could certainly make the difference but not enough if an uninspiring candidate is nominated.

Hell, the Alabama GOP controlled legislature recently enfranchised a large portion of the currently serving prison population so how good can it really be for Dems?
Don't underestimate Desmond Meade. His ground game is unreal; way different from Alabama where no one notified former felons and only recently did the SPLC+Campaign Legal Center team up to even try. The FRRC has been really great and likely will continue to be. I think it could net around 50-75k votes and would consider that game-changing.
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12-01-2018 , 07:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hellmuth was right
is the FL felon thing something the governor could easily overrule?
No, it's an Amendment. The Governor has no say in the process. It required a 60% super majority to pass, it got 64%.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dth123451
The whites will show up and vote for literally any GOP nominee. The key to winning the Midwest is turning out everyone else.
Hell, this isn't even true anymore. The GOP has lost Whites under 30 and White Women of all ages. All they have left are "Whites over 30". By number, that's still the largest group to have for the time being but they've managed to erode every other previously solid base they had.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Palo
The Florida felon thing is good for Dems but likely not game changing. I saw somewhere the eligible felon voter rate was around 15% and lower for minorities. While minorities are disproportionately represented in the felon population the white red neck group is still a majority or nearly so. Picking up a net 20k votes could certainly make the difference but not enough if an uninspiring candidate is nominated.
Kind of remains to be seen.

More than 20% of eligible Blacks in Florida are unable to vote under the current system, so even with limited turnout, that's going to be a big deal for a group that voted 90-10 Blue in 2018.
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12-02-2018 , 12:35 PM
Speaking of Florida...



Dovetails nicely with TM Landry story.
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12-05-2018 , 06:05 AM
Rudy does not get the internet

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12-05-2018 , 07:15 AM
lol the follow up is ****ing excellent

First they invade our country, now they're invading our tweets! When will it end? Also note that Giuliani is Trump's cybersecurity adviser
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