Quote:
Originally Posted by Victor
It's not exactly easy to flip 3 out of WI NC PA MI. And esp lol at FL felons saving us.
NC was a poor example on my part. With their districts getting shut down, their reps will be more evenly divided, but it's going to take a pretty stellar candidate to bring them into the mix (something like 2008 when NC and IN both went blue somehow). Still, WI, PA, and MI are pretty easy flips as far as history is concerned:
1996:
WI: Dem +10.4%
PA: Dem +9.1%
MI: Dem +13.3%
2000:
WI: Dem +0.2%
PA: Dem +4.1%
MI: Dem +5.1%
2004:
WI: Dem +0.4%
PA: Dem +2.5%
MI: Dem +3.4%
2008:
WI: Dem +13.9%
PA: Dem +10.3%
MI: Dem +17.4%
2012:
WI: Dem +6.9%
PA: Dem +5.4%
MI: Dem +9.5%
2016:
WI: Rep +0.8%
PA: Rep +0.7%
MI: Rep +0.2%
I dunno man, kinda feels like maybe those states are winnable with a strategy that is anything more than "They don't exist".
Re: FL.
2000: 538 total votes
2004: Rep +5%
2008: Dem +2.8%
2012: Dem +0.9%
2016: Rep +1.2%
If you don't think adding 1 million plus voters to the rolls, a disproportionate amount of which are minorities might benefit Democrats, I'm not sure what else to say.