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SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics) SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics)

05-01-2017 , 02:52 PM
It's a profoundly stupid column, don't get me wrong, but the NYT is one of the handful of publications actually worthy of and needing of subscribers. Hurting it with a belligerent boycott is self-defeating
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05-01-2017 , 02:53 PM


Happy May Day!
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05-01-2017 , 02:54 PM
Quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99
Yeah think of the consequences. Clearly if there's even a 10% chance climate change isn't real - we owe it to our grandkids to keep destroying the environment to rip every last drop of petro-fuel out of the ground, and continue to sneer vigorously at renewable energy sources. That's just basic logic.
I feel like you're willfully misinterpreting his position to an anti-intellectual position that you want to attack. Pointing out how disastrous the State/Science connection can be, and has been, seems prudent, especially in today's post truth/you're either with us or against us world.


The fact that liberals want to burn him/the NYT at the stake is both hilarious and troubling.
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05-01-2017 , 02:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by THAY3R
I feel like you're willfully misinterpreting his position to an anti-intellectual position that you want to attack. Pointing out how disastrous the State/Science connection can be, and has been, seems prudent, especially in today's post truth/you're either with us or against us world.


The fact that liberals want to burn him/the NYT at the stake is both hilarious and troubling.
His entire point is that there's uncertainty in the climate change models, and they *could* be wrong. Ok. Now tell me the potential downsides/upsides of the following courses of action:

1) Assume man-made climate change is real. Promote renewable energy. Try to curtail/disincentivize coal/tar sands/fracking etc.

2) Do nothing until all fossil fuels are depleted, because there's a chance it might not be real.

Even the author can't say there's a better than even chance that climate change is overblown. So even if it's at 65% or something - wouldn't #1 be a much much better course of action?

What is the point of pointing out that climate models *could* be wrong - unless you're ready to assign some overwhelming odds - like 80%+ chance that they *are* wrong? This is one of those cases where human emotion/tribalism comes in and blocks a very simple logical connection imo. Oh - climate change might not be real? Whew, I don't have to worry about the world I'm leaving for my kids anymore. That sure feels better.

Very simple analogy - just replace the earth with yourself. A large % of doctors are telling you that if you don't stop some behavior you're probably going to die. Are you going to seek out a few doctors to tell you that doctors have been wrong in the past, and there's always some uncertainty, so ... do nothing?

Last edited by suzzer99; 05-01-2017 at 03:09 PM.
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05-01-2017 , 03:02 PM
I mean you've got these olds who have been hearing the same thing for decades now, we were going to run out of food 30 years ago, our Ozone should be gone by now, etc. They've heard hyperbole forever and have seen the "Science" be "wrong". So perhaps a different non-hyperbolic/absolutely certain/stop asking questions approach is better?
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05-01-2017 , 03:04 PM
The only "willful" misinterpretation of anything is both Stephens and you pretending the column is not both implicitly and explicitly designed to argue that climate science is unreliable and that climate change is a hoax, which has been one of Stephens' projects for at least half a decade.

The New York Times deserves every ounce of scorn it gets for abandoning truth and journalistic integrity to bring in readers, while simultaneously trumpeting climate change denialism from beneath its venerated masthead. There are plenty of publications that reliably sift wheat from chaff from outright fabrication, and The New York Times is no longer one of them.
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05-01-2017 , 03:05 PM
Suzz,

It seems to me like you're creating a false dichotomy in which one of the options satisfies your feelings and the other makes one look like a bad, bad person!

It is hard to argue with choosing 2 over 1, I agree.
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05-01-2017 , 03:06 PM
Hoya in case you missed it, he had this to say:

Quote:
Let me put it another way. Claiming total certainty about the science traduces the spirit of science and creates openings for doubt whenever a climate claim proves wrong. Demanding abrupt and expensive changes in public policy raises fair questions about ideological intentions. Censoriously asserting one’s moral superiority and treating skeptics as imbeciles and deplorables wins few converts.

None of this is to deny climate change or the possible severity of its consequences. But ordinary citizens also have a right to be skeptical of an overweening scientism. They know — as all environmentalists should — that history is littered with the human wreckage of scientific errors married to political power.

I feel like that is a very important thing for proStateScience persuaders to understand, and maybe it's best to try to understand what he's trying to say opposed to assuming he's an idiot anti-science trumpkin that needs to be censored for not blindly supporting your agenda, especially when he's not even opposing it.
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05-01-2017 , 03:11 PM
do I have to go copy-paste his litany of "global warming is fake" columns and various "lol at liberal hysteria, climate science is disproven" hot takes from earlier in his career to convince you that you're wrong and he's lying when he tries to soften his point, or are you capable of doing that yourself?
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05-01-2017 , 03:11 PM
Who cares if climate change is not 100% certain? "Is it likely?" should be the only question.
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05-01-2017 , 03:16 PM
FWIW I just googled "global warming is fake" and Bret Stephens and literally found no results or articles about him, though I did google Bret Stephens and global warming and found this from the WaPo today:

The problem with calling Bret Stephens a climate change ‘denier’
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05-01-2017 , 03:18 PM
May be poor timing, but x-posting this from politics bc it speaks to how I see things going at this point and I'm curious on Hoya's take.

Quote:
Originally Posted by einbert
Historian Timothy Snyder: “It’s pretty much inevitable” that Trump will try to stage a coup and overthrow democracy
http://linkis.com/www.salon.com/2017/0/aD9L9
Quote:
In my writing and interviews, I have consistently referred to Donald Trump as a fascist. I have received a great deal of resistance to that claim. Do you think this description is correct? If not, then what language should we use to describe Donald Trump?

One of the problems with American discourse is that we just assume everybody is a friendly democratic parliamentarian pluralist until proven otherwise. And then even when it’s proven otherwise we don’t have any vocabulary for it. He’s a “dictator,” he’s an “authoritarian,” he’s “Hitler.” We just toss these words around. The pushback that you are talking about is 95 percent bad. Americans do not want to think that there is an alternative to what we have. Therefore, as soon as you say “fascism” or whatever it might be, then the American response is to say “no,” because we lack the categories that allow us to think outside of the box that we are no longer in.

Is this a function of American Exceptionalism?

Yes, it is. We made a move towards intellectual isolationism in a world where no kind of isolationism is possible. The fact that democracies usually fail is a rule which can’t apply to us. If you examine American society, there are high points and low points. But there is certainly nothing which puts us in a different category than other people who have failed, whether it’s historically or whether it’s now.

I don’t want to dodge your question about whether Trump is a fascist or not. As I see it, there are certainly elements of his approach which are fascistic. The straight-on confrontation with the truth is at the center of the fascist worldview. The attempt to undo the Enlightenment as a way to undo institutions, that is fascism. Whether he realizes it or not is a different question, but that’s what fascists did. They said, “Don’t worry about the facts, don’t worry about logic, think instead in terms of mystical unities and direct connections between the mystical leader and the people.” That’s fascism. Whether we see it or not, whether we like it or not, whether we forget, that is fascism.

Another thing that’s clearly fascist about Trump were the rallies. The way that he used the language, the blunt repetitions, the naming of the enemies, the physical removal of opponents from rallies, that was really, without exaggeration, just like the 1920s and the 1930s.

And Mr. [Steve] Bannon’s preoccupation with the 1930s and his kind of wishful reclamation of Italian and other fascists speaks for itself.

How did the news media and others get this so wrong? Why did they underestimate the threat posed by Donald Trump and his movement?

What we ended up with, from Bill Clinton onward, is a status-quo party and an “undo the system” party, where the Democrats became the status-quo party and the Republicans became the “undo the system” party. In that constellation it’s very hard to think of change because one party is in favor of things being the way they are, just slightly better, and the other party has this big idea of undoing everything, although it’s unclear what that really means in practice. So no one is actually articulating how you address the problems of the day, the greatest of which would be inequality. When neither party is creative, then it’s hard for scholars to get their ideas into meaningful circulation.

Why is Trump not being held accountable for all of his failures, scandals and incompetence?

Mr. Trump is primarily a television personality. As such, he is judged by that standard. This means that a scandal does not call forth a response, it calls forth the desire for a bigger scandal. It just whets the appetite for a bigger scandal because a television serial has to work on that logic. It’s almost as though he has to produce these outrageous things, because what else would he be doing?

I think another part of it has to do with attention span. It’s not so much a lack of outrage — people are in fact outraged. But in order for a scandal to have political logic, the outrage has to be followed by the research, it has to be followed by the investigation, it has to be followed by an official finding.

In your book you discuss the idea that Donald Trump will have his own version of Hitler’s Reichstag fire to expand his power and take full control of the government by declaring a state of emergency. How do you think that would play out?

Let me make just two points. The first is that I think it’s pretty much inevitable that they will try. The reason I think that is that the conventional ways of being popular are not working out for them. The conventional way to be popular or to be legitimate in this country is to have some policies, to grow your popularity ratings and to win some elections. I don’t think 2018 is looking very good for the Republicans along those conventional lines. Not just because the president is historically unpopular. It’s also because neither the White House nor Congress have any policies which the majority of the public like.

This means they could be seduced by the notion of getting into a new rhythm of politics, one that does not depend upon popular policies and electoral cycles.

Whether it works or not depends upon whether when something terrible happens to this country, we are aware that the main significance of it is whether or not we are going to be more or less free citizens in the future.

My gut feeling is that Trump and his administration will try and that it won’t work. Not so much because we are so great but because we have a little bit of time to prepare. I also think that there are enough people and enough agencies of the government who have also thought about this, and would not necessarily go along.
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05-01-2017 , 03:18 PM
It seems like he's much more Anti-Agenda driven Unscientific-Science, opposed to the global warming denier people want him to be.
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05-01-2017 , 03:19 PM
Wrong.

http://scienceline.org/2017/04/ice-age-never-happened/

Quote:
But Earth was not cooling. An ice age was never imminent. And few scientists agreed with Bryson’s claims, although this hasn’t prevented climate change deniers from using these unfulfilled cooling forecasts to attack the legitimacy of climate scientists today. The new op-ed hire at The New York Times, Bret Stephens, perpetuated the idea on Fox News. “This is just the next stage of preposterous in the global warming story,” said Stephens. “In the 1970s we were supposed to believe in global cooling, in the 1980s it was a nuclear winter, in the 1990s it was mad cow disease. Global warming was the flavor of the decade – I can’t wait to see what the next scare is going to be.”
Quote:
LaDochy remembers it well. “In the 60s and 70s, pollution was just atrocious, especially in Los Angeles. There were no emissions-controls on cars, and there was a real thick haze over many other cities too. And those particulates block sunlight. It’s like having a real dusty window.”

President Lyndon Johnson and Congress took notice, passing the Clean Air Act, which radically reduced pollution over U.S. cities. “That was the kind you of smog you could taste and see,” says Patzert, who certainly notices the difference now.

So when the esteemed scientist Reid Bryson took the stage in the 1970s – with LaDochy in the audience – dirty bits of pollution were still spewing into American skies, obstructing sunlight and cooling the continent. Fittingly, Bryson called this the “human volcano.”

But as the pollution lessened and the skies cleared, Bryson’s warnings vanished like the fine particulate matter that once colored the air. Six years after Bryson’s talk, the National Research Council, a panel of science, engineering and medical experts, convened to discuss matters of climate and carbon dioxide, a potent greenhouse gas. They concluded that the planet’s warming was not just real, but a threat to worldwide communities. Global cooling was moot.
Clearly global cooling was a farce, so we never should have cleaned up the smog. Lol dumbasses and their "sciencism". Good thing we know better now.
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05-01-2017 , 03:22 PM
pathetic

Global Warming as Mass Neurosis - Bret Stephens, WSJ (2008)

Quote:
last week marked the 20th anniversary of the mass hysteria phenomenon known as global warming. Much of the science has since been discredited.
From a 2009 column that has seemingly been wiped from the WSJ archives:

Quote:
[T]he really interesting question is less about the facts than it is about the psychology. Last week, I suggested that funding flows had much to do with climate alarmism. But deeper things are at work as well.

One of those things, I suspect, is what I would call the totalitarian impulse. This is not to say that global warming true believers are closet Stalinists. But their intellectual methods are instructively similar. Consider:

[...]

• Monocausalism: For the anti-Semite, the problems of the world can invariably be ascribed to the Jews; for the Communist, to the capitalists. And as the list above suggests, global warming has become the fill-in-the-blank explanation for whatever happens to be the problem.
Liberalism's Imaginary Enemies - Bret Stephens, WSJ (2011)

Quote:
Here’s a climate prediction for the year 2115: Liberals will still be organizing campaigns against yet another mooted social or environmental crisis. Temperatures will be about the same.
I can go grab like 20 more, let me know if that's necessary.
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05-01-2017 , 03:22 PM
Grandpa why did you leave me this hellish planet to live on?

Well you see Timmy, liberals were really really annoying. I mean just look at them.

...

Eh, you had to be there.
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05-01-2017 , 03:27 PM
The people unsubscribing to the NY Times strictly because of that article are overreacting for sure.

The reason to unsubscribe from the NY Times is because they will hire a scumbag like Stephens and then trot out some condescending, intellectually dishonest bull**** about how it serves their readers to offer a wide spectrum of viewpoints as opinions so as to further the debate. This, of course, is rank nonsense given that they define the spectrum of reasonable debate as establishment white guys ranging from the Marco Rubio right to the Hillary Clinton left. And when readers push back, the Times trots out Washington bureau editors to condescend, mock, and insult the intelligence of readers.

Ask yourself if they would hire a minority leftist opinion writer to advance the discussion surrounding income inequality. Ask yourself if they would hire a minority non-interventionist to advance the discussion surrounding US imperialism and endless war around the world. They wouldn't. Look at this list:



The problem is that NYT creates bull**** ranges of what they consider reasonable debate and that they define objectivity as the absence of principles.
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05-01-2017 , 03:35 PM
NY Times - spanning the vast spectrum from never-Trump country club republicans to neo-liberal establishment Democrats.
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05-01-2017 , 03:37 PM
I mean he's not saying what you guys have said he's saying, but okay, thanks for the links.

The methods and motives behind the climate change community is something pretty interesting to follow over the decades, and he's not denying the science but acknowledging the correlation behind alarmism and funding as well as the similarities behind the methods of the movement with other more obviously oppressive movements.
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05-01-2017 , 03:40 PM
That's called FUD. He's trying to create a false equivalence with the nakedly funded advocacy of the denialist crowd.

Take 2:

Grandpa why did you leave me this hellish planet to live on?

Well you see Timmy, we didn't deny the science, but focused instead on the correlation behind alarmism and funding as well as the similarities behind the methods of the movement with other more obviously oppressive movements.

...

Eh, you had to be there.
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05-01-2017 , 03:42 PM
"I can't believe this idiot is saying Global Warming is Fake, i mean look here at this article where he says *magic leap of logic trick* it's a mass hysteria phenomenon, lol I hate climate change deniers so much. I'm never paying for the NYTimes again 10 years after he said that in a different newspaper that I read."
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05-01-2017 , 03:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99
NY Times - spanning the vast spectrum from never-Trump country club republicans to neo-liberal establishment Democrats.
basically, yeah


LolNYT getting exactly what they deserve here
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05-01-2017 , 03:46 PM
I have read the NYT nearly daily for 25 years and won't stop anytime soon, but the OpEd roster is irredeemably and inexplicably terrible in a way that defies explanation. "I wonder what David Brooks take on this current event or idea might be" is a sentence that no other human being has thought of or typed until this very post.
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05-01-2017 , 04:15 PM
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05-01-2017 , 04:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by THAY3R
Hoya in case you missed it, he had this to say:




I feel like that is a very important thing for proStateScience persuaders to understand, and maybe it's best to try to understand what he's trying to say opposed to assuming he's an idiot anti-science trumpkin that needs to be censored for not blindly supporting your agenda, especially when he's not even opposing it.
Thayer,

Skepticism is not the same thing as an appeal to ignorance. "What if all those experiments are wrong?" does not inherently deserve an equal place at the table as all the experiments, particularly when the doubters don't understand the science enough to generate experimental designs that might falsify the various hypotheses generated by the scientific community, and neither can they articulate an experiment that, if it were done, would satisfy them that anthropogenic climate change is real.

Furthermore, which team is doing the censorship? The scientists publishing their findings, or your beloved Trump administration that has wiped all mention of climate change from all government websites and publications?
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