Quote:
Originally Posted by TomCollins
2 turnovers to 1 turnover is not really anything huge. Yes, it makes somewhat of a difference. Not 9 points of difference. Getting beat 4-0 on turnovers is shooting yourself in the foot. James was pretty much a non-factor the whole game. He had one big run, and besides that was 2.9 ypc.
Mistakes certainly didn't help Oregon, but they really didn't make a huge difference. They just found it tough to operate with constant penetration into the backfield, and could not consistently move the ball. They also could not stop Pryor at all, which kept their offense off the field.
Mostly the spot where Oregon shot themselves in the foot was on third down (both offensively and defensively). If third down conversion rates regress to the mean, and all else remains the same about that game, Oregon probably wins. That's not to say Ohio State didn't do a good job of disrupting the offense, but you definitely can't look at that game and say "Oregon can't move the ball on Ohio State, Oregon's offense is a product of playing bad defenses, etcetera." They play ten times, Oregon scores 40+ at least 2-3 of those games, and gets held to <17 maybe once or twice. Average result is that Oregon scores more than they did on this given instance.
As for James, even when he wasn't actually breaking big runs himself, he was drawing a lot of attention. There is legitimate correlation between James' struggles, and the success of plays like Barner's fly sweep. With James off the field the offense was noticeably weaker because Blount doesn't have the same kind of breakaway threat, and so the defense was able to play a little more toward stopping Masoli, a little bit more toward watching the other weapons, without getting burned by it. Yeah, they shut James down very well, but they did it by actively trying to shut James down, specifically.