Noone's gonna comment on UCF 42% to make it if they win out? That doesn't seem reasonable to me. Are you sure the model didn't say .42%?

OSU and UM winning out should be the same percentage. a 1-loss B1G champ team is 100% making it.

Kentucky, Florida and UGA all seem low

Kentucky might have the worst OOC of all time and avoided Bama, LSU, and Auburn from the other division. Would be really interesting to see what would happen with them.

They played probably #3 and 4 from the West and would have a win over most likely Alabama. If not then LSU.

I'm pretty confused how Florida isn't win and in

They would have wins over Alabama Georgia and LSU at that point

If Michigan wins out they are in more often than Oklahoma

If LSU wins out they are in 100% of the time

LOL, wat

Think "top ten" is the expression you were looking for. One of them was a loss by 15 at home, which we don't generally count as a resume builder, btw. Michigan will be top ten, even after the loss to tOSU and is already perceived as being better than either of those teams were, and while PSU may not be as good, a glance will say winning on the road instead of at home makes that win nearly equivalent (Sagarin has PSU 8 points off from last year). You have to un-think the part where losing pretty badly to top-5 Oklahoma at home is superior to beating unranked TCU on the road. As TomCollins once said, "Yep, you can get a pretty strong strength of schedule by getting whipped by really good teams, yep."

Sagarin still has PSU 10th with Wisconsin 13th or maybe you'll get to play Iowa who's 9th. It'll look fine.

I don't see why we're bringing 2011 into the committee era. If anything that year was a lesson in how to ruin everything AND have a bad natty game AND leave everyone with a feeling that things hadn't been decided on the field. Terrible decision, and I said so at the time, being an Alabama fan. I also argued against Alabama making it last year, and would have put Ohio State in ahead of them (though not my first choice) despite agreeing with the Iowa-caliber loss being a disqualification-level event. Strange year, is what I'm saying.

You should check out that 538 thing. They think when it comes down to you or Big12 champ with one loss or that 1-loss non-champ Bama, you are getting the nod 80 percent of the time with the rest going to the Big12 winner. That's probably because of the factors you cite, that 20% of the time they decide to put another P5 champ with similar record in over you. But only very rarely Alabama, and you're still a huge favorite. You are exaggerating how much any of that negative stuff about tOSU matters this year. This is not that strange of a year.

Because Florida could win out and not make the SEC title game.

It’s still early; this could still be that strange of a year

Agreed. When that happens there'll be a need to re-evaluate.

Most are reasonable. I think all the SEC teams are too low.

UCF is way too high. Can't possibly be any better than mid single digits.

And what the **** is NC State doing there?

Hey sorry to hear about your dog

I would spend more time scheduling up and less time turning my entire fan base into a laughingstock troll army.

He’s on my radio right now insisting that they’re only accepting H&Hs because of the “investment” they’ve made in their 45k seat on campus stadium. Nobody but he gives a **** about that nonsense.

Now he’s say it should really be the P6 and it would be but it’s not because media is unfair very unfair fake news. He legit believes, or wants us to believe he believes, that AAC is on par with B1G and SEC and PAC. This guy should be off hocking steaks and real estate seminars someplace.

Hate to make heads asplode at the idea of holding *two conflicting concepts at the same time* but I think this betrays the massive blind spot the committee had with regards to UCF last season. Like I said, it was a strange year and by any rational measure, when you are running ads literally saying, "This year is different because now EVERYBODY has a chance to win the championship. ALL 130 TEAMS!", UCF should have received *some level* of consideration, at all.

I can only hope they felt like asshats watching them beat Auburn. Yet I cannot help but notice I haven't *actually* seen that ad used again this year.

Looks like 538 has downward-adjusted Goof's probably rational math to arrive at 15%.

It's the Notre Dame rematch complication. In 538's if you give ND a loss they go up to match Oklahoma (with ND still having some equity).

538 has Notre dame at not 100% (in fact, 94%) to make the CFP if they win out, which is ridiculous.

This is, without hyperbole, the worst attitude in the history of the universe including the future, alternate dimensions, multiverses, works of literature and anyone's unspoken imagination.

This was exactly what the people on the wrong side of history in 2006 thought and this was what made the 2011 ****show so stupid. It is the height of hubris and arrogance to think such a thing is knowable with a handful of games to go on. These conferences go their separate ways for the last 75% of the season--thousands of genetic freaks working their asses off and repeatedly hitting each other both publicly and in private. We don't know, really, how they compare among conferences by the end. Ohio State was the 4 seed in 2014--hell I was *delighted* the weak team that'd just lost its quarterback made it!

The whole friggin' IDEA is to get the elite of them together to duke it out on the field. Think "Far and wide"and actually make the "greatest team" from the SEC prove it on the field against some teams *not* from the SEC. Teams they don't see every year. Teams who haven't even played any common opponents with them for years. We had all season to watch SEC games (or whatever). Now it's time for something different.

The only good that could come out of putting Bama in in this scenario would be if the NCAA then got motivated to make a rule that it be 1 team per conference only, regardless of committee rankings. Like, "oh noes, that would only ensure some variety of teams and spread things around--what a ****ing nightmare!" Alabama getting left out when they seem to be the best team ever in the year they just *happen* to have their weakest schedule ever, for the simple reason they lost their only game to a good opponent, would only be fair to everyone.

I think you should stop thinking about where the crimson man touched you, sack up, and feel free to get pissed if your team gets screwed out of a slot after 12 straight wins over that B1G schedule you think so highly of in favor of a team that's clearly not fulfilled anyone's definition of "earned".

It looks like most of that comes from a scenario of both Bama and Clemson winning out. It gets all the way down to 62% if 12-1 Big12 champ and 12-1 tOSU (80% if Michigan). Perhaps if we tweak the possibilities to ND barely winning and not looking good while the other two go gangbusters (esp. tOSU slaughtering Michigan on a 3-game losing streak or something) we may begin to be able to imagine a world in which sometimes undefeated Notre Dame...well, I mean, I can't. But it's only 6%--may as well consider that their margin of error.

That would just affect seeding if at all

They aren’t leaving 1-loss Michigan out to avoid a finals rematch with ND

If that is part of the calculations then they are flawed

It really is

They aren’t leaving out an undefeated that plays a p5 schedule unless there are 4 p5s undefeated

guys, 538 numbers are a joke. this is known.

Say ND, Bama, Clemson all win out and all in. I know 538 doesn't see it that way but I'm sure you agree that is the case and it is only matter of picking the 4 seed.

Michigan and Oklahoma (or Texas) win out. How do you decide which one to take, other than to start nitpicking things like that? Swap tOSU for Michigan and tOSU is a favorite, and tOSU obviously has a worse loss, so that's how the ND game knocks them down a peg.

They're not saying it will be the tiebreaker. They're just saying there's some chance when push comes to shove the *only* previous game between the top 5 *could be* used as a tiebreaker. There'll be other factors like how good they look or whatnot that may take precedence if they wind up being pronounced. What if there is nothing else like that, though? What if they think Michigan and Oklahoma are equally deserving in every other way? Why wouldn't they?



As an aside, if they'd let in UCF last year (or even moved them within striking distance) then I expect 12-0 ND would be listed at 100% right now. See, NOW ya got people trying to write simulation algorithms to account for irrational moves. It's madness, but it's just trying to account for previous madness being repeated. It's adorable.

I think their political work is outstanding. Like clearly best in class, and much better than I could do as a hobbyist. However their sports work just isn't the same.

For whatever reason they have large blind spots that cause them to publish things that are often kind of ridiculous. Like Brazil being even money against the field in the 2014 world cup, or an undefeated power 5 team not making the cfp when there are <5 undefeated power 5 teams left.

They currently have an opening for a quantitative editor - maybe they recognize the blind spots. I thought about applying but I'm sure it'd be a pay cut, and also it's in new york

None of the committee decisions so far have been madness

They’ve all been logical and made sense and followed the outlined criteria

ND and UCF don’t play the same schedule

Goofball, they don’t allow remote work? It’s a 9-5 in NYC?