Peter King's MMQB- Pretty Good Read Actually - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

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Peter King's MMQB- Pretty Good Read Actually

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02-01-2010 , 11:59 AM

Matt Williams

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Sorry, if this isn't thread worthy, but I thought it was pretty cool. Peter King asked Brian Burke about how fair the OT coin flip is. This is a tiny bit of what he said.

Don't be fooled by other numbers. In 2009 there happened to be only 13 overtime games, and the coin flip winner won seven (54 percent). In six of the 13 (46 percent), the loser never touched the ball. The sample size for any single year is too small for a reasonable estimate of the true numbers. Also, don't be tricked into thinking "only 61 percent." If we agree 50 percent would be the fairest rate, you might think 61 isn't very far from 50. But that's not the right way to look at it. The appropriate comparison is 61 percent versus 39 percent, the respective winning percentages of the coin flip winners and losers. That's a big advantage --over 3:2 odds.

Here's the entire link. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...html?eref=sihp

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02-01-2010 , 12:02 PM

capone0

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True but sample sizeaments.

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02-01-2010 , 12:05 PM

Pudge714

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02-01-2010 , 12:14 PM

Run Ricky Run

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What is the winning percentage of the team who calls heads or tails. If it is 50% then OT is fair.

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02-01-2010 , 12:18 PM

vhawk01

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Run Ricky Run

What is the winning percentage of the team who calls heads or tails. If it is 50% then OT is fair.

I dont think anyone is complaining that OT isnt "fair" in that sense. Its a misleading tangent. When people say "fair" they mostly mean entertaining. Picking a letter of the alphabet at random and then awarding the SuperBowl to the team who has the most guys starting with that letter is "fair" but no one wants to watch that.

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02-01-2010 , 12:22 PM

Pudge714

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vhawk,
The problem is that a lot of the solutions such as the auction method might make it closer to 50/50, but won't make it more entertaining. The bigger problem with OT is the game becomes drive to the 25 yard line and run the ball three times up the middle before kicking a chipshot. All this coin toss discussion ignores the larger point, which is NFL OT isn't very fun to watch. Unlike every other sport the iconic NFL OT moments are blunders.

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02-01-2010 , 01:52 PM

dkgojackets

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Run Ricky Run

What is the winning percentage of the team who calls heads or tails. If it is 50% then OT is fair.

very well reasoned. My anecdotal evidence suggests that calling tails (or the other team calling heads) leads to a win percent around 70%

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02-01-2010 , 02:49 PM

Etats360

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Oh, it's the OTHER Brian Burke. Makes much more sense.

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