Quote:
Originally Posted by 72off
numbers: score and venue adjusted 5v5 xg in the playoffs
i sorted them by 5v5 playoff minutes because it sort of occurred to me that i don't know either lineup that well; mostly in the middle, because the top and bottom are obvious innit. and i wanted a better understanding of the usage here, so here we go...
edmonton oilers
mcdavid 58%, hyman 58%, draisaitl 52%
kane 49%, nugent-hopkins 42%, holloway 51%
mcleod 56%, janmark 49%, foegele 54%
perry 56%, henrique 41%, brown 38%
ryan 40%, carrick 47%
- ok so first off nuge probably needs a big final if they're gonna win, but here's the thing: he's almost certainly playing injured right now. we know this because he's been one of the worst oilers at 5v5 in the playoffs, when during the season he was 3rd best at 61% xg, 3 points ahead of draisaitl even. so given that i'd probably bury him on the 3rd or 4th line at 5v5, keep him on the powerplay because he's been good there and the powerplay has been good.
- looking at this i'd also play carrick over any of henrique/brown/ryan. probably ryan since he's also the worst penalty killer of the bunch. i'd also be tempted to try whoever the next best guy on the depth chart is, especially if the oilers fall behind in the series, like how the stars tried bourque in game 6. more reward than risk. why not?
bouchard 62%, ekholm 58%
ceci 37%, nurse 47%
kulak 46%, desharnais 54%
broberg 36%
- ok so today i learned that cody ceci is 3rd among oilers dmen in 5v5 ice time in the playoffs. we could be mere weeks away from the reality that we live in a world where cody ceci is the #3 dman on a stanley cup champion. cody ceci, the 37% xg dman, who in his long and storied nhl career not once not ever been a positive player to his team, not even close. i don't even know what to say anymore. anyway, if the oilers insist on playing him that much and the panthers can't take advantage of it, it's just further proof that we are indeed living in hell i guess. enjoy arbys
- broberg also sucks, so i'd be tempted to find out who the oilers 8th best dman is if i were them. or just cut your d rotation to 5.
- i know what i have against desharnais, but not sure what edm's coach does. he's obviously better than ceci, and he's also better than nurse. desharnais should play more, but nobody tell him that, ok?
- evan bouchard should be get serious conn smythe consideration if the oilers manage to win this thing. he's played 30 more minutes than anyone else, and he has the best xg% of the team. he has been their best player. very likely that mcdavid gets the trophy if they win, but with a strong final i could see this +900 bet get there.
Don't have much to say about Florida but I think it's well known I follow the Oilers very closely. A few points:
Kane is definitely hurt - it's been widely reported in Edmonton media that he has a sports hernia.
For the Oilers bottom six, I think the focus has been they don't want to make big changes because the bottom six is handling the PK, and it's been an absolute weapon. They aren't giving up enough 5v5 to risk sacrificing that. I do think the guys in the bottom six are on leashes, and if you have a bad game or games or you're banged up, you're being replaced - this is basically the situation among the group of McLeod, Foegele, Ryan, Henrique, Carrick, Brown, Perry. Would say Jannmark is safe from this.
The defense is just a mystery. I liked the inclusion of Broberg; he's a better skater and puck mover than Desharnais, and Desharnais really struggled with the forecheck of Dallas. I wouldn't weigh too heavily on those stats as Broberg only played a couple of games and one of them was the 35-10 shot game.
If I said what I think will decide the series from the Oiler perspective:
1) Will Skinner play well
2) Will the refs call penalties to the point that each team has 3-4 PP/game
3) Will Nurse-Ceci pairing hold up
If 3/3 are "yes", I am confident the Oilers will win.
If 2/3 are "yes", I think the Oilers have a good shot at winning.
If 1/3 are "yes", it'll take a supernova McDavid/Draisaitl series for us to win
If 0/3 are "yes", we almost certainly lose