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06-04-2024 , 04:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Malucci
My sites offer nothing but despair, and I’m getting 100% despair boosts.
Going that good is it?

Also more talk of Marner staying to do the last year of the contract at the moment.
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06-04-2024 , 06:39 PM
numbers: score and venue adjusted 5v5 xg in the playoffs

i sorted them by 5v5 playoff minutes because it sort of occurred to me that i don't know either lineup that well; mostly in the middle, because the top and bottom are obvious innit. and i wanted a better understanding of the usage here, so here we go...


edmonton oilers
mcdavid 58%, hyman 58%, draisaitl 52%
kane 49%, nugent-hopkins 42%, holloway 51%
mcleod 56%, janmark 49%, foegele 54%
perry 56%, henrique 41%, brown 38%
ryan 40%, carrick 47%

- ok so first off nuge probably needs a big final if they're gonna win, but here's the thing: he's almost certainly playing injured right now. we know this because he's been one of the worst oilers at 5v5 in the playoffs, when during the season he was 3rd best at 61% xg, 3 points ahead of draisaitl even. so given that i'd probably bury him on the 3rd or 4th line at 5v5, keep him on the powerplay because he's been good there and the powerplay has been good.
- looking at this i'd also play carrick over any of henrique/brown/ryan. probably ryan since he's also the worst penalty killer of the bunch. i'd also be tempted to try whoever the next best guy on the depth chart is, especially if the oilers fall behind in the series, like how the stars tried bourque in game 6. more reward than risk. why not?

bouchard 62%, ekholm 58%
ceci 37%, nurse 47%
kulak 46%, desharnais 54%
broberg 36%

- ok so today i learned that cody ceci is 3rd among oilers dmen in 5v5 ice time in the playoffs. we could be mere weeks away from the reality that we live in a world where cody ceci is the #3 dman on a stanley cup champion. cody ceci, the 37% xg dman, who in his long and storied nhl career not once not ever been a positive player to his team, not even close. i don't even know what to say anymore. anyway, if the oilers insist on playing him that much and the panthers can't take advantage of it, it's just further proof that we are indeed living in hell i guess. enjoy arbys
- broberg also sucks, so i'd be tempted to find out who the oilers 8th best dman is if i were them. or just cut your d rotation to 5.
- i know what i have against desharnais, but not sure what edm's coach does. he's obviously better than ceci, and he's also better than nurse. desharnais should play more, but nobody tell him that, ok?
- evan bouchard should be get serious conn smythe consideration if the oilers manage to win this thing. he's played 30 more minutes than anyone else, and he has the best xg% of the team. he has been their best player. very likely that mcdavid gets the trophy if they win, but with a strong final i could see this +900 bet get there.


florida panthers
verhaeghe 59%, reinhart 59%, barkov 60%
tkachuk 60%, lundell 55%, rodrigues 56%
luostarinen 49%, tarasenko 52%, stenlund 42%
bennett 62%, cousins 43%, okposo 45%
lorentz 42%, lomberg 60%

- stenlund sucks. he sucked in the regular season, and he's sucked in the playoffs. leave him on the 4th line if you insist on playing him.
- obviously move sam bennett into the top-9 rotation. he was 5th on the team in points during the season, he's been your most effective player at 5v5 in the playoffs; what are you doing?
- i'd play lomberg until his effectiveness drops. he's not a 60% xg player, but it does seem like he's better than these other bottom of the roster options.
- also maurice could just cut his rotation down to 9 forwards, for the most part. he kind of did that at the end of the east final. just cut the 4th line down to 0-5 minutes at 5v5. it'll be fine.

forsling 54%, ekblad 51%
montour 57%, mikkola 54%
ekman-larsson 60%, kulikov 56%

- yeah no extremes here. their blueline certainly doesn't try to do too much, and they get the job done. all of them.
- ekblad's a little overrated, mcdrai could get some offense going on him.
- they hide ekman-larsson, and he responds with 60% xg, you love to see it.
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06-04-2024 , 08:27 PM
Anyone seen the footage of the Oilers gal that flashed the crowd. It’s a huge story going around
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06-04-2024 , 09:54 PM
titties!

Spoiler:
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06-05-2024 , 10:23 AM
Mcdavid tried to go for a beer run and some fans got a little too close and personal,lol
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06-05-2024 , 02:30 PM
Lane Lambert has been hired as associate coach for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
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06-05-2024 , 08:24 PM
Checking to see if CowboyCold is o.k., have not seen him since Dallas lost.
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06-05-2024 , 09:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by philurivey
Lane Lambert has been hired as associate coach for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Whomst?
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06-06-2024 , 12:08 AM
start the finals already ffs. this delay SUCKS!

my biggest question is are the panthers going to try the same wannabe bully crap again that they tried with VGK last SCF OR have they learned anything. edmonton doesn't seem like a team that can be pushed around either. they have some big physical dudes behind mcdrai.

as 72off already illustrated, the oilers biggest apparent weakness is at the back. we'll see if the panthers try to center there strategy more along the lines of grinding down the defense deep instead of trying to get in oilers faces coming thru the neutral zone and instigate stupid stuff.
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06-06-2024 , 07:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by housenuts
Whomst?
Glad I am not the only one that asked that,whew LOL.

He worked beside Berube already supposedly.
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06-06-2024 , 07:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by philurivey
Mcdavid tried to go for a beer run and some fans got a little too close and personal,lol
Yeah I saw it with his girlfriend. He handled it well I am not sure I would
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06-06-2024 , 08:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 72off
numbers: score and venue adjusted 5v5 xg in the playoffs

i sorted them by 5v5 playoff minutes because it sort of occurred to me that i don't know either lineup that well; mostly in the middle, because the top and bottom are obvious innit. and i wanted a better understanding of the usage here, so here we go...


edmonton oilers
mcdavid 58%, hyman 58%, draisaitl 52%
kane 49%, nugent-hopkins 42%, holloway 51%
mcleod 56%, janmark 49%, foegele 54%
perry 56%, henrique 41%, brown 38%
ryan 40%, carrick 47%

- ok so first off nuge probably needs a big final if they're gonna win, but here's the thing: he's almost certainly playing injured right now. we know this because he's been one of the worst oilers at 5v5 in the playoffs, when during the season he was 3rd best at 61% xg, 3 points ahead of draisaitl even. so given that i'd probably bury him on the 3rd or 4th line at 5v5, keep him on the powerplay because he's been good there and the powerplay has been good.
- looking at this i'd also play carrick over any of henrique/brown/ryan. probably ryan since he's also the worst penalty killer of the bunch. i'd also be tempted to try whoever the next best guy on the depth chart is, especially if the oilers fall behind in the series, like how the stars tried bourque in game 6. more reward than risk. why not?

bouchard 62%, ekholm 58%
ceci 37%, nurse 47%
kulak 46%, desharnais 54%
broberg 36%

- ok so today i learned that cody ceci is 3rd among oilers dmen in 5v5 ice time in the playoffs. we could be mere weeks away from the reality that we live in a world where cody ceci is the #3 dman on a stanley cup champion. cody ceci, the 37% xg dman, who in his long and storied nhl career not once not ever been a positive player to his team, not even close. i don't even know what to say anymore. anyway, if the oilers insist on playing him that much and the panthers can't take advantage of it, it's just further proof that we are indeed living in hell i guess. enjoy arbys
- broberg also sucks, so i'd be tempted to find out who the oilers 8th best dman is if i were them. or just cut your d rotation to 5.
- i know what i have against desharnais, but not sure what edm's coach does. he's obviously better than ceci, and he's also better than nurse. desharnais should play more, but nobody tell him that, ok?
- evan bouchard should be get serious conn smythe consideration if the oilers manage to win this thing. he's played 30 more minutes than anyone else, and he has the best xg% of the team. he has been their best player. very likely that mcdavid gets the trophy if they win, but with a strong final i could see this +900 bet get there.
Don't have much to say about Florida but I think it's well known I follow the Oilers very closely. A few points:

Kane is definitely hurt - it's been widely reported in Edmonton media that he has a sports hernia.

For the Oilers bottom six, I think the focus has been they don't want to make big changes because the bottom six is handling the PK, and it's been an absolute weapon. They aren't giving up enough 5v5 to risk sacrificing that. I do think the guys in the bottom six are on leashes, and if you have a bad game or games or you're banged up, you're being replaced - this is basically the situation among the group of McLeod, Foegele, Ryan, Henrique, Carrick, Brown, Perry. Would say Jannmark is safe from this.

The defense is just a mystery. I liked the inclusion of Broberg; he's a better skater and puck mover than Desharnais, and Desharnais really struggled with the forecheck of Dallas. I wouldn't weigh too heavily on those stats as Broberg only played a couple of games and one of them was the 35-10 shot game.

If I said what I think will decide the series from the Oiler perspective:

1) Will Skinner play well
2) Will the refs call penalties to the point that each team has 3-4 PP/game
3) Will Nurse-Ceci pairing hold up

If 3/3 are "yes", I am confident the Oilers will win.
If 2/3 are "yes", I think the Oilers have a good shot at winning.
If 1/3 are "yes", it'll take a supernova McDavid/Draisaitl series for us to win
If 0/3 are "yes", we almost certainly lose
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06-06-2024 , 09:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Punker

3) Will Nurse-Ceci pairing hold up
How do you qualify this?
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06-06-2024 , 11:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by housenuts
How do you qualify this?
Can they maintain a 50% xG (or close to it) share in their minutes on the ice
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06-06-2024 , 05:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lozen
Yeah I saw it with his girlfriend. He handled it well I am not sure I would
EEEEK! It's Lozen, can I have your autograph and hug you?
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06-06-2024 , 05:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Punker
Don't have much to say about Florida but I think it's well known I follow the Oilers very closely. A few points:

Kane is definitely hurt - it's been widely reported in Edmonton media that he has a sports hernia.
yeah he's eyetested like **** lately, i think his xg has been bad in many games, he left that game recently after taking a big hit, etc; i buy that he's injured. and like i said earlier, i think nuge is injured. i think that draisaitl and mcdavid have minor issues, but they're still performing well enough, so whatever. it's the final, lots of guys are injured.


Quote:
If I said what I think will decide the series from the Oiler perspective:

1) Will Skinner play well
2) Will the refs call penalties to the point that each team has 3-4 PP/game
3) Will Nurse-Ceci pairing hold up

If 3/3 are "yes", I am confident the Oilers will win.
If 2/3 are "yes", I think the Oilers have a good shot at winning.
If 1/3 are "yes", it'll take a supernova McDavid/Draisaitl series for us to win
If 0/3 are "yes", we almost certainly lose
yeah the oilers can win, but they'll have to play well and also continue to run super hot. almost everything will have to continue to go right for them
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06-06-2024 , 07:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 72off
yeah he's eyetested like **** lately, i think his xg has been bad in many games, he left that game recently after taking a big hit, etc; i buy that he's injured. and like i said earlier, i think nuge is injured. i think that draisaitl and mcdavid have minor issues, but they're still performing well enough, so whatever. it's the final, lots of guys are injured.




yeah the oilers can win, but they'll have to play well and also continue to run super hot. almost everything will have to continue to go right for them
Keep in mind all those things were said about the Dallas series as well .
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06-06-2024 , 08:28 PM
i know, i said them.
and then what happened?

Quote:
Originally Posted by 72off
oilers xg for the west final by game: 56%, 59%, 37%, 60%, 61%, 17%

they were slightly better in 4/6 games, somewhat lucky this series isn't going to a game 7.

oilers pp 14.46 goals per 60 (10.48 in regular season)
oilers pk 2.05 goals against per 60 (7.46 in regular season)
so basically their special teams are running hot by 9-10 goals per 60 in the playoffs
they played pretty well overall, skinner wasn't completely horrible, special teams remained insanely hot, etc aaannnd ... they squeaked by. even though it should have gone to a game 7 and then who knows, they squeaked by.

now they need to do it again, against possibly an even better team.
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06-06-2024 , 09:02 PM
Hey 72off

Came across this, not sure 100 percent accurate as I am a little surprised by the bottom part a bit. Airbus a320 I know the Leafs have or do take it.

If you can see it....


Article about your Vancouver Canucks plane:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/544...ks-team-plane/

Hammerhands Winnipeg Jets Plane:

https://www.tiktok.com/@nhljets/vide...321990?lang=en

Last edited by philurivey; 06-06-2024 at 09:13 PM.
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06-06-2024 , 09:07 PM
now thats some next level research lol


this series may prove once and for all whether the a320 or b757 is the superior plane. exciting, stay tuned
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Yesterday , 05:17 PM
Remember the good ole days when this week would be the NHL awards and a champion already crowned? I do.
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Yesterday , 10:26 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_N0VMjJe1A

hockey psychology dropped what appears to be his finals preview ^, examining the systems, tactics, etc of both teams, and it looks pretty good. better than most of his stuff anyway (which isn't to say that his stuff is bad, but he does churn out so many videos that he invariably gets sloppy sometimes). anyway let's look at some topics he covered, and a few that he didn't. also i didn't talk about everything he mentioned, so check the video out.


cliffs: tl;dr

Spoiler:
- fla 1-2-2 forecheck (aggressive containment?)
- fla cycle / puck support
- importance of f3
- fla neutral zone turnovers ---> transition offense


just grouping a bunch of points about florida together, because of how they related they are and stuff ..... ok so apparently the panthers have a solid forecheck setup. he says they use a 1-2-2, and to my mind that's all about containment. smothering the breakout, muddying the ice; it's kind of like an offensive zone trap. the first guy (f1) isn't even necessarily even trying to win the puck, but to force the breakout one way and slow it down. the other 4 are closing in and cutting off outlets. at this point you may have disrupted a clean breakout and possibly created a puck battle or generated a turnover (but if not you've probably slowed them down at least, maybe forced them sideways, and now you're dropping into your neutral zone trap). he says everyone on the panthers are good on the boards, so i guess i'll take his word for that too. apparently this is where they thrive, by creating puck scrums and winning them.

he says florida doesn't at all mind playing dump and chase, getting hits on the dmen, battling on the boards, forcing them to make plays under pressure over and over. could be pretty massive if the panthers can get hits on bouchard and ekholm, and while their other dmen have good size, they're not exactly the best at making plays with the puck. this is where the panthers have to make #3 dman cody ceci pay, get on him and wear his ass out. phrasing. he also says they're good at creating turnovers and generating offense in transition, i could see that happening here.

think he said somewhere in this vid that maurice has a hard rule about f3 being responsible, and big if true. i love it. to me, f3 not ****ing up (and 90% of this is just being in the right position, the other 10% is not taking any crazy gambles and getting burnt) is a massive thing, it just solves so many problems with one simple trick. a well-positioned, relatively quick, hard-working f3 makes it virtually impossible to generate any transition offense, because you always have 3 guys back. the only way around this is the offense activating the weak side dman, as many do these days, but most teams only have a couple players that do this effectively. and that's only even possible if f2 and f1 fall asleep, which it doesn't sound like the panthers do. seems like part of what makes this team good is a complete 5-man buy-in. his point about their 1-1-3 neutral zone trap backs this up; f3 is responsible af, and f2 & f1 are awake and active in their roles. nothing getting behind you, nothing easy. the forecheck isn't overly aggressive at the point of attack, so you aren't playing yourself by letting them get past you without a fight. they have to go through you.

but edm's transition offense is kind of beside the point anyway, as punker said earlier, despite the reputation the oilers have of being a run&gun team solely due to having connor mcdavid around, they aren't that. they are a slogging la kings style possession team, for the most part. so as long as f3 (barkov, as much as possible) pays attention when mcdavid is on the ice, i wouldn't expect to see much quick strike offense from edm in this series. the panthers 1-1-3 nz trap seems to indicate that the panthers welcome the dump and chase defensively as well, and the oilers like to forecheck and grind, so i guess we'll see who wins out on that one. i hate to be the bearer of bad news, but this is shaping up as a boring series being fought in the trenches.


- edm 1-2-2 trap
- edm box&1 d
- edm high--->low attack vs man defense


i think the oilers have been playing a more aggressive 5-man offensive zone pressure scheme than the panthers. could be wrong but i think they're forechecking with 2 at least sometimes, obviously trying to win the puck then and there. but the one thing that has stood out to me after watching them a bunch in these playoffs is how aggressive both their dmen have been at holding the offensive blueline, it's very unusual. dangerous. a lot of the offense the canucks found vs edm was chipping and chasing vs this aggressiveness, creating some rush chances. and the thing the stars did more was sending players deep in order to stretch edm out; a guy goes long and someone has to go with him, can break the scheme and even create scoring chances this way. he mentioned that waking up f3 was an adjustment that edm had to make vs the stars, let's see if they keep it up or not.

edm's 1-2-2 seems more about disrupting things in the neutral zone than anything else, but idk. also i don't really recall them creating a lot of nz turnovers, though perhaps i'm misremembering. in any case, once they get to the red line, the panthers might opt for the dump&chase.

the box&1 dz defense is ... interesting. yeah i was trying to figure out exactly what they were doing, i could tell it was some collapsing toward the middle thing, and it was really annoying watching the canucks failing to pass the puck through it over and over (and the stars to some extent), but i suspect the panthers might attack it more intelligently. he mentioned something about how they like working the puck around the outside until they can create a chance. the stars seemed to figure this out, only too late. trying to pass the puck through it isn't usually gonna work out too well.

edm's high to low attack vs florida's man vs man defense is probably the most interesting point of the bunch here, and the clips he used in the video illustrate the point very well. you can see how, when they have full control of the puck in the offensive zone, it's possible for them to essentially hunt the 1v1 matchup they like the best (e.g. mcdavid vs literally anyone), and attack. if i was maurice, i'd have a different scheme or rules for mcdrai than everyone else so as to not allow this obvious exploit, but let's see how they play it. in general i like this kind of man defense, but obviously it's much harder to execute vs superstars.



alright well that's way more than enough for now, let's see how it all plays out. i'm sure there'll be adjustments on top of adjustments and it won't happen anything like described above now lol
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Today , 08:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by philurivey
Remember the good ole days when this week would be the NHL awards and a champion already crowned? I do.
Yeah I hate this week off
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