Heard a old school hockey commentator on NHL Radio saying Expected goals are worthless. Expected goals don’t count on the scoreboard. lol

to be fair a lot of the higher analytics for hockey is pretty garbage and diluted by the huge luck factor involved in the game

my main gripes for goalie stats is they don't account for extra 3 on 3, power plays, 6 on 5, etc type situations ie you regularly see a goalie have a great performance then get beat on a few power play one times

they don't account for deflections/screens/one timers so it's very difficult to parse between who got beat because of a 2 on 1 where the guy passed and he slammed it into the empty net or he was screened and couldn't see anything or someone who took an unobstructed shot from distance and his glove wasn't fast enough

likewise pp and pk is totally messed up, they should do it by expected goals per minute and consecutive passes

most important thing they should do is rebound rate for goalies, i think once you get past basic leaks this is key - ie driedger looked amazing in two seasons in florida with amazing save percentages but is absolutely terrible in SEA - i think a big reason is he has difficulty controlling the puck and a lot fo goals are scored on him in second chances, FLA was often dominating games so a lot of these shots would come from distance without guys crashing the crease so fla would get the loose puck whereas with SEA it's just everyone crashing the net and they are knocking home those loose pucks - another reason why i think perhaps the best metric of a goalie is to compare him to the other goalie on his own team or even isolate a save percentage/gaa for each player to then normalize with goalie data

I don't follow hockey analytics as closely as football and golf and all of what you say may be accurate....doesn't make these crusty old morons any less cringe.

Another guy said well if the Avs don't at least get to the Final it will prove that their approach doesn't work and some serious questions will need to be asked. Really? Is that how it works?

Just narrative bullshit

Reminds me of my step dad who gets mad at ME when I try to help him with his computer.


Will say Rickroll has a point with goalie metrics, they are definitely worse than the other positions. Reasons are pretty obv though, it's a very fine line.

you can filter for all the diff types of scenarios with goalie metrics on natural stattrick. in case you were wondering it basically just says igor is an absolute madman lapping the field in goals saved above average.

Interesting read....

Will the Oilers fans have a louder reaction than Calgary did?

yes you can look how many men on the ice but not much beyond that, but the main thing is where baseball started showing things like obp/whip on tv and those entered the mainstream, we don't quite have that yet with hockey, the filters to view by game state are still hidden on niche sites and as a result a lot of the tv commentary (and awards voters) will simply look at GAA and save percentage and call it a night

would love the idea of introducing unearned goals - ie when the goalie couldn't have reasonably been expected to stop it from going in - it'd have a nice knock on effect of then using it to then analyze players and see how they are scoring etc

main thing i've found is a lot of the player who traditionally show up as "lucky" aren't so much lucky just that's their skill set ie Ovechkin always overperforms re: expectations because his game doesn't fit into the standard hockey analytics mode, likewise I was convinced Conor Garland was a bad player who got really lucky based on his statistical profile until he ended up on Van (a team i regularly watch) and suddenly it made sense that his play style created those chances - a statistical darling like Boeser is more apt to be immobile and shoot it from the top of the circle whereas garland does thing he doesn't like win scraps for the puck in the corner then stuff it home - which the analytics don't respect but they do respect Boeser and his shot attempts because they understand how he generates scoring but not Garland

Baby steps, first what we'll get is expected FO% on broadcasts

lol i have noticed that as well, it's because aws is sponsoring it, bringing their "stat that" campaign to nhl and chose faceoffs

Yes but it also has Demko ranked 10-15 in most stats including GSAx. That has to be way off. He's a top 5 goalie rn all day long. Don't even get me started on Andersen.

I know my way round fancy stats. I have hand written games summaries for entire Leaf seasons from the '70's lol. I've loved stats for a very long time.

Sportsnet announcer twice repeats that Lars Eller spent most of career in St. Louis (7 games). Low bar out there.

Refs just openly stole an outright win from the Oilers there...

No call on Ovi that was beyond obvious and put a faceoff in the Oilers zone late in the game when the puck was 3ft outside the blue line. What a joke.

loilers win anyway ... thats no fun

Eric Tulsky had a really good quote when talking about goaltending in his recent podcast interview at the Athletic.

"Tulsky: You’re right that it’s just fundamentally a hard problem. I mean, a goaltender who stops 92 percent of his shots is fantastic and one of the best in the league, and a goaltender who stops 91 percent of the shots is a decent backup. And it takes an awful lot of shots to tell the difference at that level.

So setting aside all the things about goaltending, in particular — guys being hot and cold, and all the mental aspects that go into it, and all the team aspects that influence performance — just that starting point of trying to tell the difference between 91 and 92 percent is hard.

It’s genuinely a challenge. The statistics are not easy to do. And the eye test isn’t easy to do, either. It’s just a fine evaluation."

Just working with normal goalie sample sizes, if I remember correctly the difference between a .910 and a .920 goalie on a starter workload is something like 1 extra save every six games.

i shouldn't complain because it made me a few hundred dollars but it was totally absurd pettersson didn't get an assist in the final horvat goal

i've seen a ton of overly generous 2nd assists and this was a genuine one, he set the whole thing up and passed to pearson but i guess since pearson got poke checked and recovered (was instantaneous no long gap) before passing to horvat who scored they just gave an assist to pearson

edit: they did give it to him just now... rip money


re: demko and yeah, i don't watch the rangers that much so don't know shesty beyond stats but i do watch van a ton and agree demko is one of the best goalies in the league

it seems like the vast majority of the goals demko lets in are things nobody could have stopped and at least once per game i'm left dumbfounded he somehow stopped a goal in a certain spot
statistically in that game they rate out about the same as their save percentage was about the same but if you swapped goalies pretty sure montreal would have won instead of losing 5-3

meanwhile the canucks beat montembault multiple times in unobstructred shots where they just simply beat his glove/blocker

and just my karma for complaining that i should have lost yahoo literally gave pettersson the assist and then removed it and closed the slate

me and another reg were neck and neck and whether or not pettersson rightfully gets his assist decided which one of us bubbled in a number of contests

Super loud but its understandable as Alberta has 375,000 Ukranians in the province.

Yeah, this is the kind of thing people point at when refs don't call stuff because "they don't want to influence the outcome of the game". Not calling stuff has an influence too.

At least the Oilers still won, and because it was a cross conference game, no impact for them from Washington getting the loser point.

Rebound rate is a tracked stat here:

https://moneypuck.com/goalies.htm

Among goalies with at least 10 GP, Dridgier is 4th worst in the league in Rebounds above expected this year. Last year he was middle of the pack.

NY Times: Alex Ovechkin Skates Into Canada’s Ukrainian Enclave as a Scorned Star

Also, RMNB has this story.

Well isn't this interesting: Some Russian NHLers considering options as U.S., Canada expand sanctions

Russian players, their representatives and National Hockey League teams have contacted immigration lawyers in recent days to discuss the process of applying for asylum or permanent residency in North America, according to sources familiar with the subject.

ok, i guess the flyers are officially the dummest team itl now


rip sea weiss

What's your issue bro?

Marazek with an absolute stinker in the first 2 minutes. Campbell is now injured.... Yeah sure he is. ...and another goes in.

GSAx
Campbell - ranked 56th
Marazek - ranked 96th

We are so screwed.


Also sometimes I wonder if these guys aren't reading our thread. Just more to back up what we already discussed. Lehner tho'!!!

Thoughts and Prayers to CWise. It'sNotYouFault.jpg