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NFL Week 9 SE Group Rankings & Discussion Thread NFL Week 9 SE Group Rankings & Discussion Thread

11-07-2013 , 02:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NLSoldier
Being lucky enough to have a good to elite qb at a major discount to their true value obviously helps a lot when it comes to winning super bowls
It seems like you are assuming the conclusion here.

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but that doesn't mean trying to get lucky enough to achieve such a discount is the only formula for success. basically the only way to do it is via the draft.
Only 4 of the winners were QB's on draft contracts, and only one (Brady01) of which was on a massively discounted rookie contract. The other 3 (Rape05, Eli07, Flac) were all 1st round pre current CBA contacts; the lowest pick being Flac at 18th. High first round QB contracts are basically what broke the old CBA, so I wouldn't say it was some sort of bargain sale on QBs.

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and just looking at super bowl winners instead of looking at like #1 seeds or playoff appearances drastically limits the sample size of the data set for no good reason.
The good reason is I don't have access to the data or unlimited time to compile everything, but I would love to see what the data says.

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the ravens were pretty huge dogs to the broncos and pats in last years playoffs, so it's not like building a team around an expensive qb was a mistake on the part of those teams.
Rodgers cap hit last year was 8 million or roughly 6.63% of un-adjusted cap.

GOATs was 18m or roughly 14.9 percent of un-adjusted cap.

Just noticed you said Pats and not Pack....convieniently Brady had the exact same cap hit as Rodgers last year at 8m.
He even had to restructure his contract last year to make cap space for players!

Rodgers winning would have been comfortably under the median and GOAT would have been the highest by a decent margin, but a far cry from the 20%+ or so people are claiming he is "worth."

Last edited by thenewsavman; 11-07-2013 at 02:52 AM. Reason: reading comp is hard.
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11-07-2013 , 02:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by five4suited
You're not a pacifist, are you? Just to confirm that your stance on using force to resolve conflicts is more of a NIMBY thing and not an actual principle.
I never said I wouldn't throw down. I'm saying saying throwing down is the answer to mental torture is stupid and just not as easy as it sounds.

I was a late bloomer with red hair and freckles and was bullied by a kid for like 2 months straight in 8th and to this day I haven't told anyone I know about it irl. But I fell into a pretty deep depression and had no idea how to handle the situation. My mom would ask me what was wrong every once in a while because I guess I couldn't hide the cloud over me but I swore to her that she was just imagining things. It was brutal, and it wasn't close to what Incognito has done. Though I never would have had the stones to act on it, there were plenty of days I woke up and kinda wished I wasn't living. One day, it just kinda stopped. I don't know why it stopped but I imagine he wasn't getting the response out of me he hoped for so it just kinda stopped. Luckily before any breakdown. Maybe Martin thought it would stop.

I mean I can't be the only guy on this forum who was bullied as a kid.
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11-07-2013 , 02:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CharlieDontSurf
what were the Browns asking for TE JCameron and JGordon? 1sts?
why would either of them be on the block for any reason? that is what makes no sense to me, the team is in win now mode as soon as next year and if Brian Hoyer didn't go down based on how he was playing it's not inconceivable they would be a playoff team and to be a Super Bowl contender all you need to do to make the playoffs.

tanking with such a talented roster or trying to trade your best young assets in that position makes less than no sense
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11-07-2013 , 02:46 AM
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Originally Posted by A-Rod's Cousin
What you get is perhaps really cheap good production for a year, then the ability to sign him long-term before he hits the market. Why wait to pay for him when he hits the open market if you are happy with him and he's happy with you?

Especially in Case's case (no pun intended), where he hasn't made a lot of money yet and may want to lock up some guaranteed money with a 2nd contract before hitting the open market (and risking some injury). If you're financially set for life it's probably always correct to hold out for the open market. But Case is kind of in a different position.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tweedybirdd
He's under contract through 2014 and he'll be a restricted free agent in 2015. The earliest he could test the market is 2016.
I was overlooking the fact he was going to be a restricted FA. My fault; thanks for pointing it out. I was wondering why everyone was so high on this deal.

Ok, I snap a second in the CLE deal.
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11-07-2013 , 02:47 AM
Lets see here: We have Martin walking out of the facility directly too a treatment facility over a prank. Both of victim's parents are lawyers. 72 hours later we hear of a voicemail apparently with a racial slur and a threat too kill victim. Dolphins suspend Incognito. Player has a really nasty and dirty reputation
We come to find out from Hartline. Martin was passing voicemail around lockerroom and confirmed by Clabo and laughing about it. Most Dolphins players swear that Incognito and Martin were best friends. Imo Incognito is innocent and Martin's parents set this up and are fabricating a lawsuit.
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11-07-2013 , 02:48 AM
All of these questions about Case Keenum will be played out in the remainder of the season. What we know about him now verses what we will know if he stays healthy at the end of the season is a massive amount of information. At some point this season I would think teams may be able to adjust their defense specifically to him. There are a lot of hurdles he needs to clear but so far checking all the boxes.

I got in a bit of a scuffle on skype when I suggested the Case Keenum was a vastly superior asset compared to Terrelle Terrelle Pryor. I wonder what other people think about those two specifically. Personally I'm not particularly high on Terrelle Pryor as a franchise quarterback. There are a lot of things he does well but I think he needs to improve just so much in order to be THAT guy, I don't think it happens all that often. I'm much lower on his futures thqn anyone I've ever talked to. Most people like him a lot it seems.

Edit: the Raiders situation is a complete mess though. I do want to see what Terrelle Pryor can do with more talent around him; we've seen the difference weapons can make this year. Aaron Rodgers seems to be the only player immune to playing poorly with no weapons. But that guys pretty good at football.
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11-07-2013 , 02:48 AM
newsavman-

name some high-paid non-qbs that you think are undpaid. for qbs to be overpaid someone has to be getting underpaid. i listed some potential ones in this post

also your super bowl argument has to go back quite a few years to get any kind of reasonable sample at all which ignores the fact that the league has become more and more pass happy making qbs even more important/valuable than ever.
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11-07-2013 , 03:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by A-Rod's Cousin
I never said I wouldn't throw down. I'm saying saying throwing down is the answer to mental torture is stupid and just not as easy as it sounds.
The only real bully I knew growing up was my dad, so I know it's not as easy as it sounds. I think it's too much to ask of an 8th grader, but not a 22 year-old college graduate.

Ultimately, my point is this. For those two months, between you and him, it was all him and no you. You didn't deserve that; nobody does. Not while it was happening and not during the after-effects. For whatever reason, as far as that guy was concerned, it was him or you. You didn't invoke or encourage or invite it, and you don't think that way, but the other guy is. So I say hooray for you, and **** him. And if no one else gets involved, then you're the one whose got to do the ****ing. It's not ideal or preferable or even a good idea, necessarily, but it's better than just absorbing it to the extent that Martin did.
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11-07-2013 , 03:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NLSoldier
newsavman-

name some high-paid non-qbs that you think are undpaid. for qbs to be overpaid someone has to be getting underpaid. i listed some potential ones in this post
I don't have a laundry list of players I think are under paid. It's not like for FA QB's to be overpaid in general there has to be other high paid players getting underpaid necessarily. As an example, the current CBA draft contracts produces reams of surplus value for teams. It could be your middle of the road players, like 3-5 APY guys aren't being valued correctly. IDK. It could be QB's are valued correctly!....butnah. It could be there is a position that is undervalued generally...idk?

I happen to think people don't value O lines enough, but that doesn't necessarily mean they are underpaid as a rule.

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also your super bowl argument has to go back quite a few years to get any kind of reasonable sample at all which ignores the fact that the league has become more and more pass happy making qbs even more important/valuable than ever.
The whole reason for using 2000 on was to get samples from the league when it was more of a passing league, so I don't think going back a few years is going to help much. As I said before I think we should be looking to expand the data to include playoff teams/division champs, whatever, in the modern era. Besides the cap has only been around since '94. Lastly, I do agree that QB's are more important now than even a decade ago, so its not like I think the median of 7.6 is some holy grail or something.

I did take a couple looks at John Elway in the 90's when he was Rangin' and he was slightly less than 10 percent of cap and he was giving back bonuses/restructuring to make room for players so the could make a run at a RANG!!

Last edited by thenewsavman; 11-07-2013 at 03:20 AM.
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11-07-2013 , 03:53 AM
ok if Ireland really told Martin to punch Incognito then lol dolphins

edit--most of the top tier QB's are intentionally taking deals under value to try to keep other players (tho in rodgers case idk why since GB is never near the cap ceiling anyway).
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11-07-2013 , 08:30 AM
Voicemails and dinner tabs. Whatever happened to good old fashioned pee bombs. In the lockerroom/showers get a firm grip of your foreskin* shutting it closed, start peeing, aim, release. Good times all around.

*requires foreskin, straight up peeing also acceptable if muslim/jewish or otherwise.
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11-07-2013 , 08:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by five4suited
I still believe that. But I also know that Incognito stepped way over the line a long, long time ago, and I'm not defending him.

The authority figures (parents, coaches, teachers? whatever) in Martin's life have failed him if he's incapable of physically defending himself against a sustained attack that is so severe that he's considering taking his own life. I could see that being a possibility if he were much smaller than Incognito, or 50 pounds overweight and couch-bound, or whatever. But he's able to go out and play a violent game every Sunday, a game that requires him to literally manhandle his opponent.

Sometimes, in life, an ass whupping is exactly what the situation requires. You realize, if Martin had challlenged Incognito to a fight in the locker room or o-line meeting room, two things would have happened: the Dolphins coaches/FO would have learned about the situation, and after Martin stood up for himself, if Incognito didn't stop the rest of the group would have stepped in.
This is really bad on so many levels. Controlling someone psychologically has nothing to do with size.
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11-07-2013 , 08:34 AM
I don't get the qb argument. Obviously having a player playing for under market value is going to enable you to build a better team around him
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11-07-2013 , 08:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by A-Rod's Cousin
The entire 2007 NFL draft didn't yield a QB as good as Keenum is right now.

This is obviously atypical but yeah I think saying nobody trades a 4th for him is like....absurd.
Matt Moore is arguable
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11-07-2013 , 09:07 AM
One of the knocks on Keenum is that he can't throw a wet ball at all. A franchise QB that can't make a throw when the weather is bad is not a good thing. Often if you can't throw in the wet you probably can't throw very well in the cold either.
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11-07-2013 , 09:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by maulaga58
Lets see here: We have Martin walking out of the facility directly too a treatment facility over a prank. Both of victim's parents are lawyers. 72 hours later we hear of a voicemail apparently with a racial slur and a threat too kill victim. Dolphins suspend Incognito. Player has a really nasty and dirty reputation
We come to find out from Hartline. Martin was passing voicemail around lockerroom and confirmed by Clabo and laughing about it. Most Dolphins players swear that Incognito and Martin were best friends. Imo Incognito is innocent and Martin's parents set this up and are fabricating a lawsuit.
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11-07-2013 , 10:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by maulaga58
Lets see here: We have Martin walking out of the facility directly too a treatment facility over a prank. Both of victim's parents are lawyers. 72 hours later we hear of a voicemail apparently with a racial slur and a threat too kill victim. Dolphins suspend Incognito. Player has a really nasty and dirty reputation
We come to find out from Hartline. Martin was passing voicemail around lockerroom and confirmed by Clabo and laughing about it. Most Dolphins players swear that Incognito and Martin were best friends. Imo Incognito is innocent and Martin's parents set this up and are fabricating a lawsuit.
Yes because suing and bogging down lawyers for years is more profitable than making millions in the NFL.
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11-07-2013 , 10:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NLSoldier
yes rodgers is underpaid.

and so are most of the rest of the top 10 QBs.

tough to think of a QB that's overpaid besides flacco, aside from ones that have gotten benched like sanchize and schaub.
I think Flacco is paid about right. This isn't me being a homer; This is entirely to do with the value of a QB, even the ~15th best QB. Some ITT have drastically underrated the value of the QB position.

Off the top of my head the overpaid QBs are: Sanchez and Bradford. Everyone else is on a reasonable contract considering their risk/reward.


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Originally Posted by TeeJayOrTJ
The fact that rookies are so massively underpaid does inherently make the non-rookie contracts as a whole overpaid. Now of course QB is the position where you would want to overpay and thats why guys like Stafford, Romo, Rivers, Ryan are not bad deals but still likely slightly overpaid.
I think Stafford/Romo/Rivers/Ryan are some of the best non-rookie value contracts out there. QB is really really important.

Last edited by Assani Fisher; 11-07-2013 at 11:10 AM.
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11-07-2013 , 10:55 AM
It's really tough to put a precise number on the value of a "marginal" franchise QB. In terms of FA $/WAR, Flacco is almost certainly paid appropriately (could even be underpaid). But that doesn't truly take into account the opportunity cost of locking up an average-ish starting QB at a huge price, which puts a ceiling on the team in two ways -- the Ravens lose most of their equity to find a true elite QB in the next five years, and the cost of locking up Flacco hurts their ability to build an elite team around him. It's a low-variance strategy that means the team is unlikely to be awful, but also unlikely to be significantly above-average.

(It also prevents the team from getting positive QB play on a rookie contract, which is the easiest method of sculpting an elite team around a positive QB.)
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11-07-2013 , 11:02 AM
the value discussion is tricky b/c you have free agent value vs rookie contract value and you also have the issue of the hard cap. unlike in MLB, you can't just pay everyone what they are worth in wins - if you are going to be a consistent and top team you probably need to get surplus value from somewhere. rookie contracts, undervalued vets, etc.

so, you might be able to argue that Flacco isn't drastically overpaid. however for that to be right in the context of team construction - which is far more important - you better have tons of cheap awesome talent all over the place. otherwise you end up where the Ravens are - a below average team without a ton of flexibility. the more important question is if it's right to pay him that much, even if it's "fair".
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11-07-2013 , 11:05 AM
Good post. Agreed, and would add that the easiest place, by far, to get tons of surplus value is at the QB position. The Flacco contract prevents that.
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11-07-2013 , 11:17 AM
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Originally Posted by grando1.0
man am I the only one thinking this incognito guy is completely getting railroaded here?

yeah he's a dick - but there is no way that **** like this doesn't go on in every male goddamn sports team ever. it's one of the most alpha male environments in the world - of course **** like this is going to go on.

I'm not trying to downplay it - but I'd be absolutely shocked if there weren't 20 other people in the NFL worse than him

man have you heard some of the stories of hazing in football/hockey/whatever? some of the stuff I've seen and heard is 100x worse than some voicemails from idiottown
you may be right, but whenever we make social progress we always have to make someone the first person we publicly rally against even though "plenty of others did the same thing!".


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Originally Posted by grando1.0
well we all know it's happening - lollllll at thinking stuff like the bounties and this and stuff that anyone who has ever played a competitive team sport has seen multiple times just being one offs

if we knew about all the "bad" stuff happening there would be no pro sports

and anyone thinking otherwise is a complete tard
anyone who thinks that this is a valid excuse for Incognito is a complete tard imo


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Originally Posted by grando1.0
honestly, this is probably a pretty fair assessment

I just feel that 2.2 is out of the loop as to what actually happens behind the scenes

sleeping with teammates' wives/harmless to harmful 'hazing', including circle jerks and worse/fistfights in the locker room/'forced' meal payment/whatever is around in every goddamn sport and hundreds of athletes actively partake in such activities

stuff like this, the vikings' love boat, everyone being on steroids, point shaving, ref riggage, college football sketchiness, etc. happens all the ****ing time and no one seems to care until adam schefter tweets 20 straight texts about it

this holier than thou attitude just pisses me off so much, and yeah I understand it probably gets me on some dumb list

Wtf "attitude" are you talking about? We saw that Incognito was doing some horrible stuff and we bashed him for it. If it comes out that others are doing horrible stuff then we'll bash them for this. We will do this because we would like to see change in these areas where the "culture" of football is one in which horrible stuff is commonplace.

I'm confused as to what attitude you would prefer everyone to have....sounds to me like you're suggesting one of "Other players do this all the time, therefore lets not make a big deal out of it."


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Originally Posted by dnh83
i don't know, i think grando has a point there someone. There are a lot more Incognitos in the NFL than there are Martins. I bet if you took a poll of NFL players basically asking whose side they are on, more would be on Incognito's side. It doesn't make it right. But NFL locker rooms are probably the least professional workplace environment imaginable. I would imagine this type of stuff goes on all the time and 99% of the time it's kept inside the locker room. It sounds like Incognito probably dropped the n-bomb around his black teammates in a "friendly way" and they didn't care/thought it was funny. He probably didn't even think his voicemail message was bad. Of course in every other walk of life this kind of behavior is completely ****ed up but I doubt the majority of NFL players feel that way.
I agree completely. And the way to cut back on the number of Incognitos in the NFL is to completely change the culture by public reaction to events such as this one.

Last edited by Assani Fisher; 11-07-2013 at 11:30 AM.
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11-07-2013 , 11:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Das Boot
It's really tough to put a precise number on the value of a "marginal" franchise QB. In terms of FA $/WAR, Flacco is almost certainly paid appropriately (could even be underpaid). But that doesn't truly take into account the opportunity cost of locking up an average-ish starting QB at a huge price, which puts a ceiling on the team in two ways -- the Ravens lose most of their equity to find a true elite QB in the next five years, and the cost of locking up Flacco hurts their ability to build an elite team around him. It's a low-variance strategy that means the team is unlikely to be awful, but also unlikely to be significantly above-average.

(It also prevents the team from getting positive QB play on a rookie contract, which is the easiest method of sculpting an elite team around a positive QB.)
Def agree with this. The importance of the position makes it difficult to grossly overpay a top 20 QB from a pure $/WAR standpoint. The issue is building a SB contender around a 20m/year Flacco. Winning a SB requires a significant amount of bargain talent. Rookie deals are obv the most common types of bargain deals, and they don't exceed 4 years anymore. Continually restocking bargain talent is already very difficult. Teams that have massive bargains at QB don't need to draft perfectly because they are scooping value at the most important position.

I would argue that it's nearly impossible to contend for a SB long-term without a significant bargain at QB. The '11 49ers and 09-10 Jets did so, but they also happened to have an obscene level of surrounding talent. And we also saw the Jets fall off because they committed long term to an overpaid QB.

Building up an elite squad and then plugging in an Alex Smith-type on a short-term basis is certainly fine. But it's so hard to sustain elite surrounding talent that without a bargain QB, I don't think you can expect to contend for a SB for more than 2ish years.
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11-07-2013 , 11:31 AM
I'll trade the Martin discussion, a fourth rounder, AND Trent Richardson for Keenum.
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11-07-2013 , 11:34 AM
3rd or a 4th for Case Keenum sounds reasonable to me right now, but Texans games haven't been high on my viewing list the past 2 weeks so its possible I'm underrating how good hes been
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